12 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Technical resistance is at 5940 and 5960. It may act as ‘make or break’ levels. Do not speculate, it is better to watch first for some decisive signal of reversal.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.



For 12 September 2013: -
On 11 September 2013, FII Bought INR 586.50 crs and DII Sold INR 386.12 crs
I am not surprised with this kind of buy figures by FII in cash market as they used to buy heavily near top. When Nifty was near 5200, they were selling heavily. So far, bull’s intensity continues even after sharpest 15% rally of Indian history.
To be honest, I still want to be bullish but for caution I exited my entire long. I am following basic theory of this market that we should not be greedy. Nothing looks bad if we are exiting after 800 points of rise on nifty. Technical charts are saying for resistance at 5940-5960 zones which I had already mentioned yesterday too. Cross over of 5960 will generate fresh momentum. After 800 points of rise, it seems that we are almost at a newer ‘make or break’ levels. There is some development of ‘negative divergence’ on hourly RSI. It is not very strong divergence in nature yet. We still need to wait for more trading signals.  
Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – SGX Nifty is giving a hint for flat to positive start as of now. Technical resistance is at 5960-5970 levels. It is equally true that crossover can give as high as 6030-6090 levels too. Suppose, if it fails then we can see decisive dip. It may break lower. We have small negative divergence on hourly chart and VIX is also not very supportive. Caution required.

S&P 500 – I was expected 1684 to 1690 once it has crossed 1660. It is exactly coming at 1690 now. We need to note that crossover of 1690 will generate the possibility of “Newer all time high”. It is not looking very comfortable on charts as MACD has big negative divergence. So far it is no trade at 1690. Just be silent and exit all long. Just like, I said earlier to exit all short at 1630.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar
I’m Praveen Kumar, a seasoned Technical Analyst and stock market trader with over 25 years of experience in the Indian equity and derivatives markets. My passion for numbers and patterns led me to a dual career as a Mathematics Teacher and market technician. I specialize in Technical Analysis, with deep expertise in Elliott Wave Theory, derivatives strategies, and market forecasting. Over the years, my analysis and market views have been featured on NDTV Profit as a financial guest, along with published articles on reputed financial web portals, sharing insights on Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, and stock market trends. As a trader and analyst, I focus on interpreting price action, chart patterns, wave counts, and technical indicators to deliver precise market levels and actionable trade ideas. My approach blends classical charting with modern analysis tools to help traders navigate market volatility. Through VieCapital, I aim to share daily market analysis, trading strategies, and educatio…
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