11 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Unbelievable rise but it may have more steam to rise but sharper rally may invite correction now. Technical resistance is at 5940 and 5960. Is it coming?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 September 2013: -

On 10 September 2013, FII Bought INR 2563.60 crs and DII Sold INR 1398.05 crs

So, in just nine trading sessions all problems have moved away from India? Well, it was coming on charts. A real super rally came as most people on street were bearish and so I was bullish. It is true that even I am shocked to see 5900+ so early. It is full 787 points run and in percentage it is 15.40%. All in just nine days. Things are sweeter than sweet.

Previously also, I have mentioned that strength in India rupee after extreme weakness will help us. INR appreciated from the levels of 68.80 and now approaching near 63. Sooner, even 62-61-60 will become reality. It is going to be interesting to see when it will start showing weakness again. A real and tough task for new RBI governor will start after that. Do not worry, so far there is no such sign.

Definitely, I was expecting only 5850 for yesterday. Rest was also a surprise for me. It is running to fast and too furious. Natural index pattern should not be like this. Remember no market can become 100% bullish or 100% bearish. Economy and stock market are bound to live with few negatives factors too.

India VIX is first one such. Even after more than 3.70% rally on NIFTY, VIX was higher by 2.70% which is a strong sign of “Caution”. Second is, almost all mid cap and small cap indices has underperformed. We have a possibility to see one day correction. It may be today. I am not very sure as correction depends on intraday development.  

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Just believe that we got 5900+ levels on Nifty Future when majority were talking about 4800. Recent intensity should see pause now. Technical resistance is at 5940 and then at 5960. We have chance to see profit taking from any one of those levels. I am expecting trading support to emerge at 5850 and then at 5800 levels.

S&P 500 – I was expecting 1684 and it came as a dot. More important is that it has closed near to 1684. It has moved by 57 points from its recent low of 1627. Bears must be burning but most such bearish positions were coming on fear due to possible US attack on Syria and possibility of rollback in QE. Well, charts were never such bearish. Now, I am expecting a pause at or before 1690. It has already seen a directional run up of 3.60% so far. A possible price correction may begin from 1690 if it wants.

Will the Nobel peace prize winner and president of USA Mr. Barak Obama really attack Syria? No, they cannot. Have a look on political development. Chances of this attack are easing.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar