26 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Bulls were about to lose hope but 5800 (100 SMA@5818) saved and bounce came. A possible reversal pattern coming? Confirmation will come only above 5940.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 September 2013: -

On 25 September 2013, FII Bought INR 382.45 crs and DII Sold INR 473.28 crs

This is going to be interesting derivative expiry now. How many times we saw a month where Nifty took a run up of 1000 points? It is very rare and that’s the reason this is wild now. Even 5800 look painful for bulls but charting is not as bad. Due to wild ranges, we can expect another volatile day. I need to be honest with my feeling. Every time 5900 levels give a confusion of up or down. If you think minutely then you will find that from last many months we are moving here and there near 5900 only except few months. If we go higher above 5900, it gave sell off in just few weeks. If it slipped below 5900 then also we saw good bounce from low.

It is like Indian market is really doing nothing on broader sense. I strongly believe that something must happen now. I am buying stocks of my choice.

Asian markets are trading lower on US debt woes. This is not making any sense. US economy will exhausted with cash by 17 October 2013. Does not matter, they will handle it. This should be concern as US long term bond yield is still running lower.  

Technical charts are still saying that 5850 to 5800 range should be good support. Have a look on chart to see how moving averages are saving the fall in the market. Is short covering coming? Let us see.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty future is likely open flat but support should emerge at 5850 and 5815 levels. We should not see this expiry closing below 5910 levels. If it manages to give expiry above 5910 with good long rollover in October then it will give bright hope for coming week. I am still saying that it is just 50-50 bet near expiry this time.

S&P 500 – When I say to book short near 1700 I suspected about this. I dull move in the range of 1690 to 1710. It is very close to 1690 but not broken yet. As long as 1690 holds, I will hope for a short term bottom coming. Let the bounce come then only we can work on some targets on higher side. If it breaks below 1690 then we need to rethink about rebound call. I still feel that rebound will come irrespective of levels.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar