18 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has logical importance of 5800 for bears. As long as it holds, do not add fresh short. Wait for what Fed is going to say.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 September 2013: -

On 17 September 2013, FII Bought INR 318.05 crs and DII Sold INR 501.19 crs

I have said for the support at 5800. I was decided that as long as it hold 5800 I will not short. My waiting never ends yesterday. I closed my day without any trade. I still have same view. As long as 5800 hold, one should wait for direction. I prefer to see fed outcome first. My takes on Fed meeting is very odd and disturbing.  

“Fed is not only going to begin tapering but also they may throw surprises on monetary tightening front”.

Forecasting market is beyond the scope of charting right now as it is going to see big impact of event. Asian market is not on nervous note like yesterday. Still I do not want to add any excessive pessimism in my thought. I like to see a rising market but such chances are less.

About India Rupee also, I believe that sweeter days are almost over again. We may see the beginning of some inherent weakness. My first logical target is at 65.00-65.30. This may also be related to Fed outcome only. I just like to remain that we have RBI monetary policy review on 20 September 2013.     

Nothing looks great to apply on technical analysis front. As long as 5800 holds, I cannot add fresh shorts. One needs to note that Nifty is just hovering near its 200 DMA. This kind of formation has a history of unpredictability. We may see some stiff resistance at 5900 levels.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty future is likely to oscillate near 5900 levels only. We may have trading resistance to emerge at 5930-5950 levels. In the down side, as long as it holds 5860 there will be no signal to short. While below 5860 we can expect 5815-5800 levels. Well, rather than trading I will focus on lower break of 5800.

S&P 500 – Final outcome of Fed meeting will come tonight and almost all global market is waiting for this desperately. US market took a pause at very uncomfortable levels and technical charts have lesser value now. It is still showing me that something will come to result a sell off. Rather than buying on breakout, I might prefer to sell on breakout. Let us see what’s coming. It is useless to touch unless we get some cues. Technical resistance is still at 1705-1710. I want to be bearish but not above 1690.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar