28 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: No great expectation even from the last trading day of this financial year. I am expecting a short covering from lower due to heavy short position; need to save 5612-5600 levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 March 2013: -

On 26 March 2013, FII bought INR 538.27 crs and DII sold INR 124.21 crs.

Today is the last trading day for this financial year as well the derivative expiry of this month contract. Market deserved a bounce and it was coming but never able to sustain. This is a troubling formation. Bears were not impressed about Indian market even when US indices were rising towards their all-time high. I have already taken my profits from almost all short positions.  

Still, I do not feel that I am going to get any great bounce to short again. Bears got upper hand in this market as Euro zone woes are back. I have already said this that Cyprus story will have a litmus test when their banks re-open on Thursday. Time has come and security persons have a tough-tough task to handle. This was the most anticipated way expected from Super Mario. It must be the time for policy maker to re-think over the purpose of making Euro zone.

Next what we are listening from Italy and Spain. This is a non-ending phenomenon. Well, if I look all global charts then it seems that Indian market is on even deeper trouble. There is no concrete reason to see this kind of sell off but remember at 4.50% GDP, what else could you expect. It is the different thing that more troubling euro zone has performed better than Indian market.

We will see gap down opening in Indian market. We have put call ratio coming near to 0.70. We may have soft – to – dead first half again and decisive move should come in second half. I am sensing that we will decouple from global cues for few hours. I am expecting rise based on short covering in second half but I am not very confident on that call.

Fresh attack on internet and formation of new BRICS banks are another highlight for the day.

Strategy for Nifty April future – It is trading with a premium of almost 35-40 points. It is likely to open near 5660-5650 levels. I am not very keen on shorting today after any gap down. In fact I may not opt to trade short at lower levels. I am giving this discount to the market for expiry hours. My charts are suggesting for one rebound towards 5700 marks. I am not very confident but I can hope for such short covering. Well, I may use this rebound to create short position in April month series. There might be some hangover of HOLI on this market and volume may not be impressive for first half.

S&P 500 – It is still fluctuating in the zone of 1545 to 1565 ranges. It is just running in this range from 10^th March 2013 onwards. Asian market and European market, all goes well off from recent high. One trade below 1545 and this will also give a strong sell. I am again saying focus on Cyprus again (along with Italy and Spain) and let us see the reactions. Something must be capable enough to stop bulls in USA. If strength is shocking you then fall will be even more shocking.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

26 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 200 DMA shifted at 5621 now. We may see volatility and weakness a day before expiry. Will it hit 5548? I cannot deny such possibility.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 March 2013: -

On 25 March 2013, FII bought INR 717.89 crs and DII sold INR 425.61 crs.

ECB says they solved Cyprus and I say that they open the door for third Greece. I like to add that fear of slowdown is worse than slowdown. With this kind of steps how can you able to rebuild the faith of depositors? Every banking system is running on faith and Mr. Draghi is breaking those limits. They succeed in Cyprus and they may start targeting others too. They do not have courage to open the bank yet. If you want to know the reality of this bailout then keep you figure crossed and wait for Cypriot depositor’s reactions once their bank open.  Cypriot people are paying for the failure of policy makers. Do not say me for the good work of Mario Draghi. He has done everything for stock price, not for economy, just like Ben Bernanke has done. Economy is not for Stock Market. Stock Market is for economy.

I am giving common understandable logic – people will keep less cash in banks now in Cyprus. How will you handle those? Now, after sometime they will say that you cannot keep more than xyz cash with yourself.

ECB is trying to send a message that I should opt the easiest way to get money because now I am running short of money. Thanks god that I am not at Europe. Well, even then they enjoyed better rating than India.

Our domestic developments are also not comforting. There are talks of some political unrest. Market is on disappointing mode so even small negative news creates some good fall in indices. 200 DMA advances to come now at 5621 which is almost testing.

If Nifty starts sustaining below 5620 for 5-10 minutes then it can see some easy fall of 40-50 points further. I have already quoted for the monthly target of 5548 and we are inching closer to that day by day.

Strategy for Nifty March future – I have given for target of 5726 in recovery and Nifty march future hit a high at 5717 and then slipped. You can expect it crashing towards 5600 levels or lower. Take note that today is second last day for this month contract as we have holiday tomorrow. You can expect stiff trading resistance at 5660 and 5684. Opening may be weak but inviting for bears. It should be a volatile day from lower end. It is easy to be bearish than to be bullish. Let us see about the up-coming trading direction. Hopefully a fall!!!

S&P 500 – Yesterday, I gave a critical point of 1545 on my twitter. S&P 500 hit a low at 1545 and then recovered to a little. I have already given enough hint for fall and I retain my views. This is good levels just for shorts. For every selling to begin, we have a threshold point. Those threshold point for S&P 500 is at 1545 and 14390 for Dow Jones.  Now market can only pick time but not the levels as levels are clear one.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

25 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A bounce deserves, it came but not sustaining. This trend will continue even for this week irrespective of global cues. Technical support at 5618, which is 200 DMA.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 March 2013: -

On 22 March 2013, FII sold INR 14.20 crs and DII sold INR 135.57 crs.

We are on last week of this financial year. We have a short weak and derivative expiry too. Our market tried to bounce on Friday but give up in last few minutes of trade. Eventually, FII and DII both emerged as net seller.

Now, let us talk about Cyprus. Cyprus clinched a last-ditch deal with international lenders on Monday for a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) bailout that will shut down its second largest bank and inflict heavy losses on uninsured depositors, including wealthy Russians.

I have said this at the time of Greece deal also and repeating this time also. The way ECB is solving a problem it is itself opening door for the next problem. Have we ever passed even single quarter with a problem in euro zone? This union is the second name of headache. They will spend their life in solving this kind of crisis and bailout rather than achieving anything. It is designed to play with money. Richer will earn and poor people will trash out. I am strongly warning that this kind of steps can result as “mass anger bust” anytime in euro zone. Do not invite gentleman on the read.

Cyprus was an ‘experiment lab’ and very sooner you will hear about Spain and Italy.

Obvious question is about the impact on Indian market. A gap up is a very simple expectation but Indian market may give up from higher levels again the way it did on Friday also. I was expecting about but worse part is that those bounce get sold on intraday trade itself. I am expecting at least one bounce from near to 200 DMA which is now at 5618 before finally breaking this. I am not very optimistic after gap up.

There are many stocks in Indian market where media people are trying to convince you to buy. Recent example was RCOM. Do not enter in such trap. Mid cap and small cap fall is far away from over. This is alarming phase of Indian market where index is not doing the damage like market.

Strategy for Nifty March future – I have already expressed my views for recovery on Friday during my ‘intraday updates’.  At least one bounce deserve from current levels. Nifty March Future is looking like to open at 5690. Technical charts are suggesting for a move towards 5726 once it stand above 5692. I am not very sure that it can be possible without short covering. My strategy will be to trade long but I need a chance to buy at low. Will I get after gap up? Strongest bear of the world is in India itself.

S&P 500 – It is still at high and making one day up-next day down structure. You do not need to look at indices future right now after Cyprus deal. US markets were already sensing it coming. All technical indicators are saying for something to go wrong at current levels. It has formed a range of 1538 to 1558 (~1564). Rising VIX is showing that now fear is rising. I can still say that it is just a matter of time for this fear to convert in to selling. It is very tough to say about exact time but a big disappointing fall coming.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

22 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has broken support of 5563 also and looking to move towards my most said figure of 5548. The ghost of euro zone will give more jerks to the global market.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 March 2013: -

On 21 March 2013, FII bought INR 368.31 crs and DII sold INR 30.08 crs.

I was expecting a recovery. That came yesterday and washed out on very same day to break even 5650 levels. This was the recovery you could have expected. Today morning, hardly any market is positive in the globe. There are fresh concerns over Cyprus banking system.

I like to add my views over struggling euro zone situation. Firstly, I just cannot understand what kind of union is this? They become the name of trouble for each other. Policy makers should rethink over their purpose of making this union. Every country is looking towards bailout fund like they are playing some hide-seek game. What is happening in Cyprus is like strong members of euro zone is blackmailing. Either you accept tax levy on deposit or whole your bank account will be washed out. Cypriots are supposed to pay for whole fault (or ambition)?

Situation is worse than Greece crisis.

About the Indian market, it is looking like we have some great trade share with Cyprus. One negative news and Indian market is reacting more than any other European nation. This is showing weak undertone of the market.

Being a technician, I can give supports but all supports are supposed to break. So, it is better to accept the trend and it is down. I have just few important figures to discuss. One support is at 5640 (given two days back) and next is 5615 which is 200 DMA.

Strategy for Nifty March future – I deal with long trade in first half and short trade in second half yesterday. This is what I can do max on long side. Technical charts are suggesting that we will see more falls today also. I have already quoted for Nifty spot target towards 5548 for March month and we are moving towards those. Use some intraday rise to short this market. Now we may not see easy cross of 5700 marks while on the downside we may have 100 points more to fall.

S&P 500 – I have already said yesterday that fall is coming. Believe me, it has just started. In coming few days you will experience many many big things. I do not know the reasons; in fact I never break my head to find out reasons as it will come on its own time. I still have to wait for 1535 as important support to break. They are not giving up but they will have to give up. Once it breaks 1535, trend will change the table. I was reading some articles last night; someone said Mr. Bernanke has taken more from depositors. Note that bank depositors are easiest target for any tax and just imagine the amount.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

21 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Political dilemma will rule over any technical trend for Indian market. Crucial support at 5678 > 5663. Can I expect any bounce?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 March 2013: -

On 20 March 2013, FII sold INR 236.72 crs and DII sold INR 36.92 crs.

I covered my shorts from Indian market yesterday and started to see opportunity to trade long for bounce. There were technical indications but conviction was missing and it is missing even till morning hours too. I can see political drama put the market technical at back foot. Same is expected for today. If you are index based trader then take a holiday and watch your TV set to speculate over political heat.

Political updates: In my view Congress party wants to go in election with words of sympathy. They want to say the voters of India that look at our coalition partners thy all betrayed us. So, there will be a day when Congress party will enjoy their government falling. They will find it as a better option than to take blames of so many scams.

I am not saying that this government will fall in a day or two. What I am saying that political people are trying to create the heat in their politics. Worse part is that they are picking some topic which is beyond my sense, I am referring to SP moves.

Is it so important to mention in Stock Market updates? Yes, this will leave you in ‘keep on guessing mode’. Technical will say for recover but even recovery will be fragile.

I am quoting two important supports for nifty. One is at 5678 (refer technical chart) and 5663 (previous recent low).  

In a recovery mode, Nifty may try to come near 5790 levels. Is it coming? I cannot bet but I can hope. I strongly quoting, this market will fall again after some recovery.

Strategy for Nifty March future – I one point yesterday for Nifty march month future at 5692. It has saved as low was just at 5701. Study remains same. It may try to give some recovery as long as it is saving support at 5692. If it gives a gap up of 20-25 points then it will make trading useless. I say keep stop loss at 5692 and then plan to buy dip. Will I get those dip?  

S&P 500 – FOMC gave a dead outcome. At least, they have not said anything unexpected. Dow Jones corrected its previous high by 3 points, just to make double top. Remarkable is that two strong parameters like VIX and RSI gave sell. RSI is lower than previous and VIX is higher than previous. Do not try to figure out for the reason of fall. Just believe on chart that fall is coming. As I said for fall on last Friday, I am saying again that US market may see another toppish fall in two days including today.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

20 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A break came as expected after RBI policy and shocking was DMK move. Technical charts are hinting for test or break of 5700-5663.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 March 2013: -

On 19 March 2013, FII bought INR 62.63 crs and DII bought INR 71.38 crs.

I always say never break your head in finding reasons for up or down as reasons always comes on its own time. Yesterday I said that break below 5790 will give us new kind of concerns and it came as DMK issue. Now, you also know that UPA government is not going to fall. What I say is that weak government cannot give you strong governance and UPA is definitely weaker. It’s a trouble for any further “reform”.  Although I strongly believe that India has done nothing on reform front. At least nothing was able to impact data.

What came from Cyprus? Cypriot parliament declined proposal of bank levy. It has declined all possibilities of massive withdrawal of money from banks but now they have to work out for newer bailout deals.  

When bad news comes, it never comes alone. Yesterday, there were fresh development on 2 G spectrum case and summons issued for some new big names.

Technical charts are suggesting the test of 5700 to 5663 levels by today itself. I am not sure about recovery yet. It may come but it may not sustain for longer. We have 200 SMA at 5606 levels. I have already said in the last week also that Nifty might try to move towards 200 SMA. Supports will be as in this Way – 5700 > 5663 > 5640 > 5606, if all fail then just hope for 5548.

I am strongly quoting that recovery depends on domestic and global developments. It does not matter what charts are saying but I am strongly quoting that more painful days has yet to come for equity across the world.   

Strategy for Nifty March future – I am quoting one point for Nifty March future which is at 5692. This is only significant support for this fall. It may try to test that support before rebounding. Will it really rebound? I do not know the exact answer. One can expect stiff technical resistance at 5775 – 5790 levels on rise. Do not play brave on any side as these are the zones where most traders go indiscipline. Let us see what is coming. I am short from much higher levels.

S&P 500 – I have written the importance of 1535 for S&P 500 for my readers few days back. It hit 1538 and then bounced yesterday. Well, CBEO vix is still hinting that sooner or later it will break 1535. CBEO VIX is now at 15.32 with high above 16. You can expect some news which can spread panic in the market when CBEO VIX goes above 20. The clock is clicking.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

19 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has last critical support at 5790. Sooner or later, it will break. Expect a volatile day with influence from RBI policy today.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 March 2013: -

On 18 March 2013, FII bought INR 506.00 crs and DII sold INR 459.89 crs.

Our market has moved little lower yesterday on European woes. Now for today, our market would prefer to watch up-coming monetary policy review. Note that market has already discounted 25 bps repo rate cut which is likely to come today.  

Market can cheer only if something comes more than 25 bps repo rate cut. Some people believe that RBI may give CRR cut too but I am not expecting any such moves. One can expect limited trading move till 11 am.

I strongly believe that in the lower side if it breaks 5790 then it will be critical. Wave trend suggest for panic if it breaks 5790. Break below 5790 will open newer kind of concerns in term of trading ranges. On higher ide it will face resistance at 5870 and then at 5900. Final hurdle will remain at 5971. Take a note that RSI is showing for weakness only.

Now, let us talk about euro zone crisis where most market recovered major part of fall by yesterday itself. I am strongly quoting that more bad news will come in 2-3 months’ time. Policy makers are using Cyprus as experiment lab. Worse part is that stock markets across the globe are saluting the wrong tradition. I said this last year also and I am repeating now also that policy makers are playing with the fire. They need to understand that Stock Market is not ‘the economy’; it is just the mirror of economy. I am strongly warning, stop taking non-sense moves which can explode socio-economic equation.

Just think, people at Cyprus are going to pay for whose fault?

Looking on this kind of development I am sensing that equity price may not stable at higher levels in short term. Condition in India is also not looking good as we are slipping lower on global investment priority.

Should I add friction between DMK and Congress? Well, those are just domestic political drama. Do not give any importance.  

Strategy for Nifty March future – It is very easy to say that market will decide its course after RBI policy announcement and you should not trade before that. Charts should say things before event or must be hinting something. I am neglecting the impact of RBI policy.  Market may see slip in post policy hours irrespective of announcement. It may see some good degree of volatility before falling. Is it going to give something wrong? May be yes. Technical support 5805-5800 for March month future.

S&P 500 – It was first break on the chart yesterday. Before you say for recovery from low, first look at CBEO volatility index. It has seen a shoot up of 20%. It is giving you enough hints. I am sensing that a bigger fall is coming. Do not worry about reasons as those will come on its own time. Take a note that now the time has come to see the impact of all those negative divergence.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

18 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty closed below 5890 and I heard about Cyprus bail out as new Euro zone crisis. Expect a fresh wave of sell off. Firstly will hit 5790 and then it will take a move towards 5548.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 March 2013: -

On 15 March 2013, FII bought INR 1018.93 crs and DII sold INR 584.48 crs.

Multiple times I said in the last week that uses this rise as opportunity to exit and shorting. I have almost utilized every single opportunity. We have 5800-5900 Nifty future as well as multiple stock futures. It is not all, I have added aggressive S&P 500 Future at 1562 to 1560 and betted that US market will see its final top on 15^th March 2013.

It is Monday morning and I heard about the impact of fresh euro zone crisis. Dow Future lost 130 points and SGX Nifty lost 40 odd points. I have already given too many things to explain technical chart using Elliott waves, RSI and VIX.

Right now, we will see critical resistances at 5900 (~5890) and 5940. I have spotted 5940 as resistance on Friday too, we have seen high at 5945. I feel that equity situation will be worse from bad in coming days for every single day of the week.

If you have any hope from RBI then it will also not help. Look at what has happened last time, on 29 RBI gave repo rate cut and we finished a top. Where were the rallies of rate cut? We have WPI at 6.84 % and CPI at 10.91 %, its too big spread to afford. RBI may give rate cut or may not give rate cut but charts are saying that reactions might not be as good as market is expecting.

Look at VIX again for today. Keep your eye on 17-18 levels. Cross over will generate huge shoot up.

What I key of Cyprus bailout? Well, one condition of bailout is that big depositors (whose deposit is higher than 1 lakh euro) have to pay a part of bailout. This is non-sense and do expect more non-sense from Euro zone.

Strategy for Nifty March future – I have already given enough hints about the weakness. If you have added shorts and forwarded with overnight risk then you can enjoy 40 points gap down as reflecting on SGX Nifty. So, I am starting my analysis from 5860. A break below 5850 will give simple support only at 5800-5790. I am not expecting any great recovery, today might be the day where recovery will not come. Expect trading resistance at 5875 to 590.

S&P 500 – S&P 500 Future is already down by 20 points. I have finally added short on Friday’s trading in the range of 1563 to 1560 in April Future betted that US market will hit its final top on Friday night. I can tell you that break below 1535 will be confirmation of top. I am 90% convinced that we hit the top on US market. Break below 1535 will end up 1485. Cheers for bears !!!

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

15 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A surprise move came from nearer support of 5790. On higher side resistance will be at 5940-5971. This market may again try to slip from high but there is no initial sign of weakness yet after yesterday’s rise.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 March 2013: -

On 14 March 2013, FII bought INR 607.11 crs and DII sold INR 829.19 crs.

Before I say anything about Indian market, I like to inform that Dow Jones got its 10^th rise in a row. US and European markets are moving higher day by day. All thanks to Mr. Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi. Let us look at what has happened in Indian market yesterday.

In the initial hour market got some shocking news by corbapost on three Indian private sector banks. Market kept on moving higher after that. We got WPI data at 6.84% and market is still hoping for rate cut. It is looking like market moved higher on the anticipation of rate cut and stronger European cues.

Technical charts has closed on encouraging note but in my view Indian market moved due to excessive shorting. I still say that 5971 will be a decisive resistance. I am not ready to bet anything unless it crosses above 5971.

Today is the last trading day of the week. First trading support will be at 5890. If it breaks and sustain below 5890 then you can expect same thing happening as of yesterday but in reverse direction. This market may not give clear direction till up-coming RBI monetary policy review.

VIX has seen a dip of almost 10% in single trading session due to massive volatility. Market will try to watch up-coming advance tax numbers too.

Strategy for Nifty March future – It is looking like Nifty March future is still to gain little more but every higher level will face stiff resistance. One can trade long if it manages to sustain tall above 5960. Further cross can give 5990. In the downside if it starts trading in the range of 5910-5900 then it will be first sign of weakness. It will be decisive if it breaks 5900 levels. Note that our market is trying to sustain only because global markets are strong enough to their life time high.  

S&P 500 – I said to watch for US SPX VIX for the range of 12.50-12.60. Well, it has entered in that zone now and S&P 500 is just few points away from its life time high closing. Is there any end for US market on higher side? I am just sensing that these must be the major top but when will it change direction? Now, only GOD knows. Looking on charting formation it is showing for resistance at 1565-1570 and must fail before 1577.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

14 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It has closed below 5890 and raising concerns for fresh and major threat. With few pause, Nifty may eventually end up near 5548 in coming few weeks. Short every rise!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 14 March 2013: -

On 13 March 2013, FII bought INR 303.83 crs and DII sold INR 434.38 crs.

It was another expected fall that we have seen yesterday. We are 9^th day from the recent bottom of 5663 and Dow Jones has enjoyed ninth straight positive close. This has happened first time since 1996 for Dow Jones to close 9 positive closes in a row. WOW, US investors are so brave.

Well, before you think anything big you must note that these rises were small one and giving me perfect hint for topping formation. In India, situation is turning to worse from bad. From the month of January, I am mentioning that traders must watch VIX. It has gained by 22% in current weak. VIX is at 16.20 right now. Cross above 17.60 will throw massive panic in the market. 17.60 is a high which VIX has tested when Nifty was at 5663.

I have already explained earlier about the top of 5971 which was a dot hit. Market is going to get WPI number today which is expected to come at 6.50%. I do not think that market will be in the mood to give great importance to this number.

One can expect trading support at 5823 to 5800 levels. You can get some pullback from any support but no pullback will sustain in this market. Sooner or later this market has to see sharper fall. So it is better to use every recovery for shorting. A technician can give you multiple supports and resistances but you should try to understand the direction for trading. It is useless to say that India market can take any cues from abroad markets.

Strategy for Nifty March future – If you remember, this current recovery had turned violent above 5850. I mean to say that massive short covering came above 5850 nearly a week earlier. After a week, we came at same levels. Consider 5850-5840 as a decisive support. Break of 5850-5840 will push Nifty future towards 5800-5790. 101% this is going to happen. Only question is that will it happen without any pullback or with a pullback? Keep guessing.

S&P 500 – S&P 500 has moved higher again with data support. Dow Jones closed with gain on 9^th day in a row. It has happened last time in the month of November 1996 and we have seen 5% washed out when that rally ended. Well, we are not in 1996, we are in 2013. Remember, 1996 was the year for software bubble phase. I am sensing that US market is on topping formation. I say keep an eye on US SPX VIX. Right now it is 12.93. I am confident that it will not break 12.60-12.50 levels. So, we are near to a MAJOR TOP.    

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

13 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Look for reversal support at 5890. Break will give levels towards 5850> 5823 > 5800. Valid resistance will remain at 5971. Do not buy fall!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 March 2013: -

On 12 March 2013, FII bought INR 733.25 crs and DII sold INR 877.38 crs.

I have suspected the fall which came yesterday and it came in its own wild style. We have seen massive volatility in last 90 minutes of trading. Failure above 5971 is giving sell signal for the first target towards 5890. It did in two trading sessions and came at 5893 yesterday.

Now, we are on 8^th day from the recent low of 5663. One must prefer to watch for the reaction at 5890 levels. Once it breaks 5890 then we can hope for a move towards 5835 to 5800 levels.

This market is again hoping for rate cut in up-coming monetary policy review. In fact, market is already discounting 25 bps repo rate cut. Yesterday, we got IIP data at 2.40% and CPI data at 10.91. These numbers are reducing the hope of rate cut. Do, you know that Indian CPI data is second highest amongst remarkable economies.

World market came for pause but not for fall yet. Indian market has a history of fall whenever world market goes for pause in past more than a month. Dow Jones closed positive again for the eighth day in a row. European markets are still concern about Italy but bond buying program remains unaffected.

One must note that VIX has seen rise of 6% yesterday and closed at 15.37, this is alarming factor for the market.

My view is that as long as it is staying below 5971 we cannot see any remarkable rise. Once it breaks 5890 then we can hope for further 60-90 points of fall.

Strategy for Nifty March future – I have quoted 5910 as support and it has tested 5916 as a low. I am more interested to see it breaking below 5910. Once it breaks 5910 then we can see movement towards 5850. Somehow it is showing that market momentum is again changing. One must note that remarkable resistance will be only at 5990 levels. It is looking like to see a big fall in coming few days again, same as February month series. Yesterday, 5400 put shoot up by 105%. Something is troubling bulls.

S&P 500 – It has a high at 1556.77 yesterday. It has seen some profit taking. When it is at 1556, one can name it as top for selling and one can be right but that can never be good idea. This top or any top can be confirmed only if it manages to close below 1538 levels. I am expecting this to happen sooner but there is no such real sign. I am advising to watch US SPX VIX closely. It will give us first indication for bigger and bigger fall. Let it move above 14 to play for big bet, it may come sooner than what you can expect.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

12 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: One day of pause is capable enough to push for the beginning of correction again. All eyes will be on IIP data which is scheduled to come today. Expect second half selling!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 March 2013: -

On 11 March 2013, FII bought INR 988.22 crs and DII sold INR 786.58 crs.

Wave pattern has given fall from 6112 which has first ended at 5853, which was named as wave ‘a’. Then we have seen a corrective up wave up to 5971, which was named as ‘b’. Yesterday’s high was on dot at 5971.

We are on 7^th day after hitting 5663. More important is that we have seen at the lowest point of the day yesterday. Charting patterns are giving a hint for fall which has started with a pause. I am still quoting as 5890 as next important support.   

Opening may be mildly positive as Dow Jones hit another higher level. It seems that US market is not travelling in space where gravity does not act. I must say that it is just not possible to predict the euphoric top. You can compare that rise as we had in the year 2007.  

Market will wait for up-coming IIP data which is scheduled to come today. Before RBI policy, IIP and WPI numbers will play important role.

My view is that market may open flat to positive. Then we will experience some good volatility and then it will finally end in negative.

One must note that VIX has seen rise of 7% yesterday.

Strategy for Nifty March future – It has crossed yesterday’s high of 5980 but never sustain and slipped lower. I have already said that we have higher chance of making weekly on Monday itself. We have seen high at 5990. I will prefer to trade short near those levels. Nifty future will not be easily tradable. Shorting in second half will give better result. Charts are also showing that bears can be confident only if it slips below 5910-5900 ranges which are still too far.

S&P 500 – I predict resistance and S&P 500 is eating those on next day. So far, bulls are in full control. One must note that VIX closed lowest point again. It is showing that fear has completely gone from American market. Ending of fear will be first sign of weakness. It is still not coming so one should be ready to enter as bear in US market very sooner. This rise will sustain as long as it is able to manage close in positive.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

11 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Crossover of 5889 is still giving 6000 as target. Confirmation is coming above 5940. Still, do not expect anything great above 6000. Today’s high will be decisive for rest of the week.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 March 2013: -

On 09 March 2013, FII bought INR 1283.58 crs and DII sold INR 836.58 crs.

FII make exit from their short on final hour of Thursday’s trading with some big volume. Technical charts are hinting for rise based on short covering. Characteristic of such rise is impulsive rise in late trades. From past two trading sessions, rise came in that way only.

It is still a fact that Indian market are also moving from the day when Dow Jones hit a fresh all-time high. It is global recovery where our market has also participated. I cannot say that market undertone has changed a lot.

Technical charts are giving hint that rise may continue for today also but not with any further rapid pace. If you are not dealing long on oil stocks then this market is not performing that well as it looks on index. For the lower side 5890 will act as good trading support which is nearly 50 points away from current levels.

Market is optimistic about up-coming RBI monetary policy review. I am also optimistic for the rate cut but I am not optimistic for rise in stock market. Remember, I had same view for 29 January’s policy review and we had a top at 6112 on very same day. History will repeat again and we may see fall again.

I am not saying immediate shorting. We may see some more rises but it is not like that we are not going to fall. Fall will come at its own time. From this point of time I am predicating for pressure on IT index, irrespective of strength in benchmark Nifty.

Strategy for Nifty March future – One should focus on Friday’s high first. If Nifty March future trades above 5982 then you can expect a move towards 6000 or 6030 levels for rise. We can expect trading support at 5940-5930 levels. One must be ready to see surprise move in post 2 pm trades. First half may be silent but second half may turn to be violent. Up or Down?

S&P 500 – I have already said for 1552 as a resistance which should not be crossed. It came at 1552 but not able to manage further cross. It is remarkable that it has again closed near day’s high and 1552. As long as it is above 1538, it is going to save the bulls. We are near to top but still not at exact top. It has higher chance of making a top this week which will be based on Fibonacci time retracement. One must understand the big RSI negative divergence.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar