14 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It has closed below 5890 and raising concerns for fresh and major threat. With few pause, Nifty may eventually end up near 5548 in coming few weeks. Short every rise!!!
You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 14
March 2013: -
On 13 March
2013, FII bought INR 303.83 crs and DII sold INR 434.38 crs.
It was
another expected fall that we have seen yesterday. We are 9th day
from the recent bottom of 5663 and Dow Jones has enjoyed ninth straight positive
close. This has happened first time since 1996 for Dow Jones to close 9
positive closes in a row. WOW, US investors are so brave.
Well,
before you think anything big you must note that these rises were small one and
giving me perfect hint for topping formation. In India, situation is turning to
worse from bad. From the month of January, I am mentioning that traders must
watch VIX. It has gained by 22% in current weak. VIX is at 16.20 right now.
Cross above 17.60 will throw massive panic in the market. 17.60 is a high which
VIX has tested when Nifty was at 5663.
I have
already explained earlier about the top of 5971 which was a dot hit. Market is
going to get WPI number today which is expected to come at 6.50%. I do not
think that market will be in the mood to give great importance to this number.
One can
expect trading support at 5823 to 5800 levels. You can get some pullback from
any support but no pullback will sustain in this market. Sooner or later this
market has to see sharper fall. So it is better to use every recovery for
shorting. A technician can give you multiple supports and resistances but you
should try to understand the direction for trading. It is useless to say that
India market can take any cues from abroad markets.
Strategy
for Nifty March future – If you remember,
this current recovery had turned violent above 5850. I mean to say that massive
short covering came above 5850 nearly a week earlier. After a week, we came at
same levels. Consider 5850-5840 as a decisive support. Break of 5850-5840 will
push Nifty future towards 5800-5790. 101% this is going to happen. Only
question is that will it happen without any pullback or with a pullback? Keep
guessing.
S&P
500
– S&P 500 has moved higher again with data support. Dow Jones closed with
gain on 9th day in a row. It has happened last time in the month of November
1996 and we have seen 5% washed out when that rally ended. Well, we are not in
1996, we are in 2013. Remember, 1996 was the year for software bubble phase. I
am sensing that US market is on topping formation. I say keep an eye on US SPX
VIX. Right now it is 12.93. I am confident that it will not break 12.60-12.50
levels. So, we are near to a MAJOR TOP.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
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