14 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It has closed below 5890 and raising concerns for fresh and major threat. With few pause, Nifty may eventually end up near 5548 in coming few weeks. Short every rise!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 14 March 2013: -

On 13 March 2013, FII bought INR 303.83 crs and DII sold INR 434.38 crs.

It was another expected fall that we have seen yesterday. We are 9^th day from the recent bottom of 5663 and Dow Jones has enjoyed ninth straight positive close. This has happened first time since 1996 for Dow Jones to close 9 positive closes in a row. WOW, US investors are so brave.

Well, before you think anything big you must note that these rises were small one and giving me perfect hint for topping formation. In India, situation is turning to worse from bad. From the month of January, I am mentioning that traders must watch VIX. It has gained by 22% in current weak. VIX is at 16.20 right now. Cross above 17.60 will throw massive panic in the market. 17.60 is a high which VIX has tested when Nifty was at 5663.

I have already explained earlier about the top of 5971 which was a dot hit. Market is going to get WPI number today which is expected to come at 6.50%. I do not think that market will be in the mood to give great importance to this number.

One can expect trading support at 5823 to 5800 levels. You can get some pullback from any support but no pullback will sustain in this market. Sooner or later this market has to see sharper fall. So it is better to use every recovery for shorting. A technician can give you multiple supports and resistances but you should try to understand the direction for trading. It is useless to say that India market can take any cues from abroad markets.

Strategy for Nifty March future – If you remember, this current recovery had turned violent above 5850. I mean to say that massive short covering came above 5850 nearly a week earlier. After a week, we came at same levels. Consider 5850-5840 as a decisive support. Break of 5850-5840 will push Nifty future towards 5800-5790. 101% this is going to happen. Only question is that will it happen without any pullback or with a pullback? Keep guessing.

S&P 500 – S&P 500 has moved higher again with data support. Dow Jones closed with gain on 9^th day in a row. It has happened last time in the month of November 1996 and we have seen 5% washed out when that rally ended. Well, we are not in 1996, we are in 2013. Remember, 1996 was the year for software bubble phase. I am sensing that US market is on topping formation. I say keep an eye on US SPX VIX. Right now it is 12.93. I am confident that it will not break 12.60-12.50 levels. So, we are near to a MAJOR TOP.    

Regards,

Praveen Kumar