26 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 200 DMA shifted at 5621 now. We may see volatility and weakness a day before expiry. Will it hit 5548? I cannot deny such possibility.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 March 2013: -

On 25 March 2013, FII bought INR 717.89 crs and DII sold INR 425.61 crs.

ECB says they solved Cyprus and I say that they open the door for third Greece. I like to add that fear of slowdown is worse than slowdown. With this kind of steps how can you able to rebuild the faith of depositors? Every banking system is running on faith and Mr. Draghi is breaking those limits. They succeed in Cyprus and they may start targeting others too. They do not have courage to open the bank yet. If you want to know the reality of this bailout then keep you figure crossed and wait for Cypriot depositor’s reactions once their bank open.  Cypriot people are paying for the failure of policy makers. Do not say me for the good work of Mario Draghi. He has done everything for stock price, not for economy, just like Ben Bernanke has done. Economy is not for Stock Market. Stock Market is for economy.

I am giving common understandable logic – people will keep less cash in banks now in Cyprus. How will you handle those? Now, after sometime they will say that you cannot keep more than xyz cash with yourself.

ECB is trying to send a message that I should opt the easiest way to get money because now I am running short of money. Thanks god that I am not at Europe. Well, even then they enjoyed better rating than India.

Our domestic developments are also not comforting. There are talks of some political unrest. Market is on disappointing mode so even small negative news creates some good fall in indices. 200 DMA advances to come now at 5621 which is almost testing.

If Nifty starts sustaining below 5620 for 5-10 minutes then it can see some easy fall of 40-50 points further. I have already quoted for the monthly target of 5548 and we are inching closer to that day by day.

Strategy for Nifty March future – I have given for target of 5726 in recovery and Nifty march future hit a high at 5717 and then slipped. You can expect it crashing towards 5600 levels or lower. Take note that today is second last day for this month contract as we have holiday tomorrow. You can expect stiff trading resistance at 5660 and 5684. Opening may be weak but inviting for bears. It should be a volatile day from lower end. It is easy to be bearish than to be bullish. Let us see about the up-coming trading direction. Hopefully a fall!!!

S&P 500 – Yesterday, I gave a critical point of 1545 on my twitter. S&P 500 hit a low at 1545 and then recovered to a little. I have already given enough hint for fall and I retain my views. This is good levels just for shorts. For every selling to begin, we have a threshold point. Those threshold point for S&P 500 is at 1545 and 14390 for Dow Jones.  Now market can only pick time but not the levels as levels are clear one.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar