12 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: One day of pause is capable enough to push for the beginning of correction again. All eyes will be on IIP data which is scheduled to come today. Expect second half selling!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 March 2013: -

On 11 March 2013, FII bought INR 988.22 crs and DII sold INR 786.58 crs.

Wave pattern has given fall from 6112 which has first ended at 5853, which was named as wave ‘a’. Then we have seen a corrective up wave up to 5971, which was named as ‘b’. Yesterday’s high was on dot at 5971.

We are on 7^th day after hitting 5663. More important is that we have seen at the lowest point of the day yesterday. Charting patterns are giving a hint for fall which has started with a pause. I am still quoting as 5890 as next important support.   

Opening may be mildly positive as Dow Jones hit another higher level. It seems that US market is not travelling in space where gravity does not act. I must say that it is just not possible to predict the euphoric top. You can compare that rise as we had in the year 2007.  

Market will wait for up-coming IIP data which is scheduled to come today. Before RBI policy, IIP and WPI numbers will play important role.

My view is that market may open flat to positive. Then we will experience some good volatility and then it will finally end in negative.

One must note that VIX has seen rise of 7% yesterday.

Strategy for Nifty March future – It has crossed yesterday’s high of 5980 but never sustain and slipped lower. I have already said that we have higher chance of making weekly on Monday itself. We have seen high at 5990. I will prefer to trade short near those levels. Nifty future will not be easily tradable. Shorting in second half will give better result. Charts are also showing that bears can be confident only if it slips below 5910-5900 ranges which are still too far.

S&P 500 – I predict resistance and S&P 500 is eating those on next day. So far, bulls are in full control. One must note that VIX closed lowest point again. It is showing that fear has completely gone from American market. Ending of fear will be first sign of weakness. It is still not coming so one should be ready to enter as bear in US market very sooner. This rise will sustain as long as it is able to manage close in positive.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar