11 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Crossover of 5889 is still giving 6000 as target. Confirmation is coming above 5940. Still, do not expect anything great above 6000. Today’s high will be decisive for rest of the week.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 March 2013: -

On 09 March 2013, FII bought INR 1283.58 crs and DII sold INR 836.58 crs.

FII make exit from their short on final hour of Thursday’s trading with some big volume. Technical charts are hinting for rise based on short covering. Characteristic of such rise is impulsive rise in late trades. From past two trading sessions, rise came in that way only.

It is still a fact that Indian market are also moving from the day when Dow Jones hit a fresh all-time high. It is global recovery where our market has also participated. I cannot say that market undertone has changed a lot.

Technical charts are giving hint that rise may continue for today also but not with any further rapid pace. If you are not dealing long on oil stocks then this market is not performing that well as it looks on index. For the lower side 5890 will act as good trading support which is nearly 50 points away from current levels.

Market is optimistic about up-coming RBI monetary policy review. I am also optimistic for the rate cut but I am not optimistic for rise in stock market. Remember, I had same view for 29 January’s policy review and we had a top at 6112 on very same day. History will repeat again and we may see fall again.

I am not saying immediate shorting. We may see some more rises but it is not like that we are not going to fall. Fall will come at its own time. From this point of time I am predicating for pressure on IT index, irrespective of strength in benchmark Nifty.

Strategy for Nifty March future – One should focus on Friday’s high first. If Nifty March future trades above 5982 then you can expect a move towards 6000 or 6030 levels for rise. We can expect trading support at 5940-5930 levels. One must be ready to see surprise move in post 2 pm trades. First half may be silent but second half may turn to be violent. Up or Down?

S&P 500 – I have already said for 1552 as a resistance which should not be crossed. It came at 1552 but not able to manage further cross. It is remarkable that it has again closed near day’s high and 1552. As long as it is above 1538, it is going to save the bulls. We are near to top but still not at exact top. It has higher chance of making a top this week which will be based on Fibonacci time retracement. One must understand the big RSI negative divergence.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar