20 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A break came as expected after RBI policy and shocking was DMK move. Technical charts are hinting for test or break of 5700-5663.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 March 2013: -

On 19 March 2013, FII bought INR 62.63 crs and DII bought INR 71.38 crs.

I always say never break your head in finding reasons for up or down as reasons always comes on its own time. Yesterday I said that break below 5790 will give us new kind of concerns and it came as DMK issue. Now, you also know that UPA government is not going to fall. What I say is that weak government cannot give you strong governance and UPA is definitely weaker. It’s a trouble for any further “reform”.  Although I strongly believe that India has done nothing on reform front. At least nothing was able to impact data.

What came from Cyprus? Cypriot parliament declined proposal of bank levy. It has declined all possibilities of massive withdrawal of money from banks but now they have to work out for newer bailout deals.  

When bad news comes, it never comes alone. Yesterday, there were fresh development on 2 G spectrum case and summons issued for some new big names.

Technical charts are suggesting the test of 5700 to 5663 levels by today itself. I am not sure about recovery yet. It may come but it may not sustain for longer. We have 200 SMA at 5606 levels. I have already said in the last week also that Nifty might try to move towards 200 SMA. Supports will be as in this Way – 5700 > 5663 > 5640 > 5606, if all fail then just hope for 5548.

I am strongly quoting that recovery depends on domestic and global developments. It does not matter what charts are saying but I am strongly quoting that more painful days has yet to come for equity across the world.   

Strategy for Nifty March future – I am quoting one point for Nifty March future which is at 5692. This is only significant support for this fall. It may try to test that support before rebounding. Will it really rebound? I do not know the exact answer. One can expect stiff technical resistance at 5775 – 5790 levels on rise. Do not play brave on any side as these are the zones where most traders go indiscipline. Let us see what is coming. I am short from much higher levels.

S&P 500 – I have written the importance of 1535 for S&P 500 for my readers few days back. It hit 1538 and then bounced yesterday. Well, CBEO vix is still hinting that sooner or later it will break 1535. CBEO VIX is now at 15.32 with high above 16. You can expect some news which can spread panic in the market when CBEO VIX goes above 20. The clock is clicking.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar