28 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: No great expectation even from the last trading day of this financial year. I am expecting a short covering from lower due to heavy short position; need to save 5612-5600 levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 March 2013: -

On 26 March 2013, FII bought INR 538.27 crs and DII sold INR 124.21 crs.

Today is the last trading day for this financial year as well the derivative expiry of this month contract. Market deserved a bounce and it was coming but never able to sustain. This is a troubling formation. Bears were not impressed about Indian market even when US indices were rising towards their all-time high. I have already taken my profits from almost all short positions.  

Still, I do not feel that I am going to get any great bounce to short again. Bears got upper hand in this market as Euro zone woes are back. I have already said this that Cyprus story will have a litmus test when their banks re-open on Thursday. Time has come and security persons have a tough-tough task to handle. This was the most anticipated way expected from Super Mario. It must be the time for policy maker to re-think over the purpose of making Euro zone.

Next what we are listening from Italy and Spain. This is a non-ending phenomenon. Well, if I look all global charts then it seems that Indian market is on even deeper trouble. There is no concrete reason to see this kind of sell off but remember at 4.50% GDP, what else could you expect. It is the different thing that more troubling euro zone has performed better than Indian market.

We will see gap down opening in Indian market. We have put call ratio coming near to 0.70. We may have soft – to – dead first half again and decisive move should come in second half. I am sensing that we will decouple from global cues for few hours. I am expecting rise based on short covering in second half but I am not very confident on that call.

Fresh attack on internet and formation of new BRICS banks are another highlight for the day.

Strategy for Nifty April future – It is trading with a premium of almost 35-40 points. It is likely to open near 5660-5650 levels. I am not very keen on shorting today after any gap down. In fact I may not opt to trade short at lower levels. I am giving this discount to the market for expiry hours. My charts are suggesting for one rebound towards 5700 marks. I am not very confident but I can hope for such short covering. Well, I may use this rebound to create short position in April month series. There might be some hangover of HOLI on this market and volume may not be impressive for first half.

S&P 500 – It is still fluctuating in the zone of 1545 to 1565 ranges. It is just running in this range from 10^th March 2013 onwards. Asian market and European market, all goes well off from recent high. One trade below 1545 and this will also give a strong sell. I am again saying focus on Cyprus again (along with Italy and Spain) and let us see the reactions. Something must be capable enough to stop bulls in USA. If strength is shocking you then fall will be even more shocking.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar