21 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Political dilemma will rule over any technical trend for Indian market. Crucial support at 5678 > 5663. Can I expect any bounce?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 March 2013: -

On 20 March 2013, FII sold INR 236.72 crs and DII sold INR 36.92 crs.

I covered my shorts from Indian market yesterday and started to see opportunity to trade long for bounce. There were technical indications but conviction was missing and it is missing even till morning hours too. I can see political drama put the market technical at back foot. Same is expected for today. If you are index based trader then take a holiday and watch your TV set to speculate over political heat.

Political updates: In my view Congress party wants to go in election with words of sympathy. They want to say the voters of India that look at our coalition partners thy all betrayed us. So, there will be a day when Congress party will enjoy their government falling. They will find it as a better option than to take blames of so many scams.

I am not saying that this government will fall in a day or two. What I am saying that political people are trying to create the heat in their politics. Worse part is that they are picking some topic which is beyond my sense, I am referring to SP moves.

Is it so important to mention in Stock Market updates? Yes, this will leave you in ‘keep on guessing mode’. Technical will say for recover but even recovery will be fragile.

I am quoting two important supports for nifty. One is at 5678 (refer technical chart) and 5663 (previous recent low).  

In a recovery mode, Nifty may try to come near 5790 levels. Is it coming? I cannot bet but I can hope. I strongly quoting, this market will fall again after some recovery.

Strategy for Nifty March future – I one point yesterday for Nifty march month future at 5692. It has saved as low was just at 5701. Study remains same. It may try to give some recovery as long as it is saving support at 5692. If it gives a gap up of 20-25 points then it will make trading useless. I say keep stop loss at 5692 and then plan to buy dip. Will I get those dip?  

S&P 500 – FOMC gave a dead outcome. At least, they have not said anything unexpected. Dow Jones corrected its previous high by 3 points, just to make double top. Remarkable is that two strong parameters like VIX and RSI gave sell. RSI is lower than previous and VIX is higher than previous. Do not try to figure out for the reason of fall. Just believe on chart that fall is coming. As I said for fall on last Friday, I am saying again that US market may see another toppish fall in two days including today.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar