28 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It will take DOW effect in opening minutes and then it goes in the hand of Mr. P. Chidambram. Have an eye on Union Budget 2013-14. Technical support is at 5748!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 February 2013: -

On 27 February 2013, FII bought INR 106.36 crs and DII bought INR 24.70 crs.

This is not surprising at all. A day before budget, both FII and DII came with buy figures. I always believe that it can only give an idea about money flow, not the market direction.

Technical charts say, it has formed double bottom at 5748. Then, we have seen a little bounce. It is good enough to buy? I cannot conclude this with one day of rise and that’s a day before budget. I can sense that one need to prepare for wild trading day.

I never trade budget day. I will follow my rules even this time and I will not participate. It is better to wait-watch and then makes some study to conclude. Remember, it is not easy to understand politician’s words just by listening. Look at rail budget!!!

Now, the most important, what is happening in global markets? It seems that USA forget Monday’s drop. Dow Jones closed at 14075 which are within reach of new all-time high. I am against the believe of US market. I do not think that whatever Ben Barnanke is doing can help USA. He is now saying that stimulus will continue till 2016. Well, we need to focus on Union Budget in India only.

No one can say anything perfectly before Mr. FM speak out. For stock market, I have just one sentence, “What looks good for vote can never be good for economy”.  With this budget, our nation will enter in the heat of election speculation. Take a note that half of India will be under election in the next half of year.

I work out to some extent about sector’s demand from budget and its impact.

1. Sugar sectors – There are talks of sugar pricing decontrol. It is looking like sugar will be sweeter than ever for market.
2. Housing stocks – Something need to done on housing front. Stock price before budget suggest that this sector is ready for another wave of rise.
3. Tobacco – I have no great reason to believe but it seems that FM will not hike tax on cigarette. Hence, positive.
4. Automobile stocks – This is my single biggest concern. You can expect hike in excise duty. I heard so many things in past few weeks. It may have negative impact as FM may try to find an instrument to bring some money for government.   
5. Banks – It is fair to say that banking stocks are very nervous before budget. There must be something which can disappoint.

Biggest challenge is control fiscal deficit but it is not possible if FM comes with food security bill. Do remember, we have derivative expiry too. Charts are saying that nothing can bring it 5900 on Nifty but nothing is impossible on budget day.

Strategy for Nifty February future – I never trade budget day so I will not act any anything. You cannot able to place stop loss on any side. Charts are suggesting that it may open near 5840 backed by Dow Jones. We can see some selling just before budget speech from 5840+. It may try to stabilize near 5810-5800 only before budget speech. Then, Nifty future will dance on Mr. FM words. I will update more during budget hours on my official web.    

S&P 500 – What Mr. Ben Barnanke wants to do, he cannot do. What he is doing, he is not wanting. Firstly, he gave a hint for roll back of QE and market reacted violently. He was not wanting fall in stock price because it is his agenda from years. Then, he said for stimulus to continue till 2016. He took out reasons for Monday’s selling and market goes back to high. S&P is still 1% away from its recent peak while Dow Jones goes higher. I am still saying that technical charts are not giving me reasons to buy above 1500 on S&P. 

27 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It hit 5760 sooner than expected. This is extremely nervous market and may head towards 5548. No recovery can sustain unless we stand strong above 5830.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 February 2013: -

On 26 February 2013, FII bought INR 74.68 crs and DII sold INR 160.61 crs.

Above figures are also indicating that money is turning sluggish now. FII are gaining money? They were aggressive above 5800 and very aggressive above 6000 marks. When I claim in the month of January that we are forming top, I was feeling that somehow this easy money flow will stop sometime.

If you get trapped in mid cap then you should just blame yourself. I have warned more than enough time in January month. Market has given much longer time to decide and exit. It is the history of any market that retail traders buy stocks near high. Many mid cap stocks has corrected by more than 20% when Nifty slipped only by 4-5%.

Do not expect anything from SEBI. They can just do one thing – Enquiry after you lost. A purposeless and result less enquiry. I just know one thing that fall always comes in this way in mid cap irrespective of SEBI actions.

I have already given hint for this fall. To my paid subscriber I had discussed about the target of 5823 to 5780. My expected pre-budget sell off has done with my target but still there is no single sign of recovery. Even if recovery comes then also it will not be reliable. Look at past 20 trading sessions. Nifty got sold even after 100 points of rise.

I have discussed about the few things about technical shape of this market.

1. We got confirmation of H&S pattern as Nifty has broken below 5823. Now it will have stiff resistance at 5823. Best case recovery can give you 5823 to 5850 only. This pattern is giving me a target of 5548. I am sure that most bulls are scared about this figure in their mind but not talking.
2. Moving average sequence – Firstly, we broke 20 EMA @ 6020. Then it has broken 50 SMA @ 5960. Now it has refused to move above 100 SMA yesterday which was at 5843. What is next? 200 SMA is at 5538 as of now.

I am shorting this market from 6000 to the rise towards 6100. Even if the recovery comes then also it cannot do any big damage for bears. Take a note that US market has not even started the correction.

Strategy for Nifty February future – I was expecting 5780 as minimum target but it was giving me more than that. Many traders are asking how long can this type of fall sustain.  When it was rising people were asking when it will fall. Now when it is falling people are asking when it will rise. Even bears get scared of this fall now but there is no sign of recovery yet. Look at the support 5757 for Nifty February future. On higher side 5800-5815 will be stiff resistance. Today’s trading can nervous and almost dead.

S&P 500 – Mr. Ben Barnanke is talking something which does not have any big sense but fact is that US market has recovered on his tone. It is looking like bulls are not ready to give up easily in USA but sooner or later they have to give up. Fall is the destiny of global market, no matter if it India or USA. I still believe that logical targets are 1460 and then 1445. I am not saying these as monthly targets. These should come in 3-4 trading sessions. 

26 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Technical was hinting for 5823 as support but there is no sign of revival even at this level. Market will watch towards Rail Budget and how can you forget 216 points sell off in Dow Jones last night.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 February 2013: -

On 25 February 2013, FII bought INR 246.71 crs and DII sold INR 161.97 crs.

FII money flow is also looking nervous now after a phase of serious under performance. Now, I like to see how market is going to move today when Dow Jones lost more than 200 points last night. I am saying about correction in US market from past 3-4 weeks but it was not coming. When it comes it came in its own style. Anyway our market is near to Union Budget day and that may be the next big event.

Nifty has a low at 5825 which was very close to 5823. One needs to note that 5823 was lowest point of past December month series.  I am already keeping my views bearish towards market irrespective of impulsive recoveries. Technical charts are still suggesting that it will break 5823 and move for lower levels.

I was quoting 100 SMA from past many trading sessions. It has broken those mark yesterday but unable to hold below that. Picture will be different today. It is looking like to open with major gap down. Do not surprise if it breaks below 5800 in first few minutes or in gap down.

I have already said about the H&S pattern which is giving a hint for 5600 to 5548 as target. Is it coming? Only time can answer. Whenever I say ‘be bearish’, I mean for price fall in share price. Now, can we say that all price fall can be reflected by Nifty? Perhaps not.

In past three weeks, I have warned about serious fall in Unitech, HDIL, Optocuit, Rcom, IVRCLINFRA etc. Look at the damage done on those stocks. Why these stocks are falling so much? There is a new stock in this series, Core Education which has seen the fall of more than 30% yesterday. Management failed to explain this sell off. I always said that you have to protect your money from such ugly stocks.

Market will open near 5800-5780 marks and then it will go in pause mode till rail budget begins. It has a higher chance of dancing with Mr. Pawan Kumar Bansal’s tone.

Strategy for Nifty February future – I said about 5830-5820 for yesterday. It hit a low at 5822 and stopped at 5882. My quoted resistance was at 5889. I am not expecting tremendous volatility on higher side. Charts are suggesting that things may disappoint market but slightly. Even for today resistance will be at 5889. I am expecting levels of 5780 marks as minimum target. I am bearish from 29^th January 2013 with my fruitful shorts. Let us see how much fall will come today but I will definitely not going to try to catch falling knife.  

S&P 500 – It came at 1488. I am maintaining short from long time on the anticipation of fall. Finally it came. More than S&P look at Dow Jones. It hit newer hit at 14081 backed by enjoyment over Italian election and then slipped massively. Take a note that even Italian market slipped over 700 points from the day’s high. I have already predicted that outcome will not favour market mood. What is next for S&P? No more logic needed. I am expecting 1450-1440 levels.   

25 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Every rise can be sold in this market. Fall is not over yet. Sooner or later it will break 100 DMA which is now at 5830 levels. Keep an eye on the outcome of Italian election.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 February 2013: -

On 22 February 2013, FII bought INR 280.30 crs and DII sold INR 351.98 crs.

It is giving us a sense the intensity of FII money flow is slowing down. It is very hard to predict any pin point reason. It might be the result of perhaps currency war. We may see preferences in investment by global fund manager.

Market men are curious to know about the outcome of Italian election. On other hand, there is silent pessimism growing over budget. Do not think that people will come to say those. One need to conclude it from the price and charts itself. The way metal, auto and banking stocks are slipping we can say that something big will comes in few days. So will budget disappoint the market?

Technical charts are suggesting that Nifty will have stiff technical at 5880 to 5900 zone.

I said about a possible H&S pattern emerging on Nifty daily chart earlier also and repeating again. Those are very critical and threatening as well. Moreover, Nifty starts trading near to 100 SMA which is just above 5830 now. How long can this kind of support sustain?

Once it breaks 5830 and sustain then we can expect 5800-5780 levels very sooner. Sooner or later it has to happen. I do not have too many clues for why it will happen? Opening for this week might play crucial role. I am still warning, do not try to catch falling knife. It may not be a good idea. I am sensing that even long term bulls are also puzzled.

Strategy for Nifty February future – Nifty February future may turn wild if it slips below 5830-5820 levels. Friday’s recovery in US market might have saved us from gap down else it was supposed to come. It will face stiff technical resistance at 5889 levels. As long as it is staying below 5889 we can just expect continuation of fall. Geopolitical and domestic cues are still hinting that any recovery will have short life. Cross over of 5889 can give us move towards 5940-5950?

S&P 500 – It hit a low of 1495 last week and then recovered to move above 1508 levels. It is impressive but not impressive enough to be bullish. Technical charts are suggesting that it will fall again anytime. We can expect immediate 3- 4 % dip if it start trading below 1500 marks. Technical shapes are still hinting that bears are already in business and they will try to show full power this week. What will come to drive those bigger corrections? Well, only time can answer.

22 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Fall looks like to continue without pause. Technical support is at 5823 to 5800 marks. Further break below 5800 will result more fall and more panic. This is well informed fall.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 February 2013: -

On 21 February 2013, FII bought INR 1213.57 crs and DII sold INR 228.78 crs.

Before you get shocked with above FII buy figure I must tell you that it has an effect of Shriram Transport block deal. Still this is a good figure. Those who make FII data as only parameter to conclude trend may try to conclude for recovery but I am not in those group. Very clearly, those who were buying above 6000 are forced to earn loss.

I have said throughout January month that market is under the formation of top. I gave very fruitful study about India VIX, Which gave us a hint for rise from 12.57-12.50 ranges. It was VIX which gave me a hint for this fall which is coming. I heard about multiple betting on 6200, 6300 or new life time high but those turn out to be optimistic call only. Now VIX came near 17. You can read fresh predictions based on VIX in my weekly analysis on my official web only on Sunday.

It was also mentioned 6126 as dead line levels for Nifty and it return from 6111. I have said that rate cut will not help India and we are falling from the day we got first repo rate cut. (Do not tell me that we are getting CRR from last year, CRR is not a rate, it is Cash reserve ratio).  

I said about a possible H&S pattern emerging on Nifty daily chart. You can focus on the given chart. I am sure that you need to be agreeing with me even to little extent. Now charts are saying that even 50-60 points of recovery can be bigger thing for market. It is also visible on that chart that Nifty is just at 100 DMA. If it breaks then it will give a push towards 5780 first and then a panic mode (which is already on) will intensify.

I am considering 5900 to 5920 as a very critical resistance. You can expect crack below 5800 now and that can come any moment. Well, note is very strongly that H&S pattern is giving a target at 5600-5548 levels.

Strategy for Nifty February future – We have shorted this at 5860 levels on Wednesday and till now we are getting almost 110 points. Truly, I am not ready to give up so easily. Technical charts are suggesting that 5880-5900 will be now tougher to cross. Who knows if I can get 5800-5780 by today itself? SGX NIFTY is hinting me for a 25-30 points of lower start and that can push Nifty below 100 DMA. One more fall and I can be on party mode on this weekend.

S&P 500 – I was saying about the importance of 20 EMA for S&P too. It has broken 1508. Last night it almost hit 1495 before some intraday rebound. Now 80% chances is that no one can save US market from bears (like us). Technical charts are suggesting for a target of 1470. Do not conclude that it can recover from those levels. We may see more dipper fall is US market. Reasons are still not good enough for bigger sell off. It is looking like those US traders are betting something on Italian election which is going to be conducted on weekend.

NIFTY FEB MONTH FUT Hourly wave analysis for trade - Why fall came today?

I have already said that 5995 will remains untested for NIFTY FEB Fut. We shorted NIFTY February future @ 5960 and went home. Here is the chart which we used to send paid subscribers every morning.

21 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: As expected it got sold at higher levels without any cross above 5980. Now we can expect move towards 5900-5880. Finally USA slipped!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 February 2013: -

On 20 February 2013, FII bought INR 433.59 crs and DII sold INR 591.18 crs.

Equation changes so fast and FII turned as a buyer. Well, I am feeling that FIIs are traditional buyer in Indian market. It must be noted that they are making proper hedging in derivative market. At least one needs to accept that they are also turning cautious on underperforming market.

I have quoted about the resistance of 5980 levels. Nifty hit a high at 5971 and then slipped. It still closed in positive zone. Now technical charts are suggesting for a move towards 5900 marks. I will again say that one should try to look at the support 5878 which will be acting as final support at 5830 only.  

I had already quoted that it will not be easy to move ahead 20 EMA. Unfortunately, 50 SMA was also falling that the same ranges.

I was talking about the possible fall in USA market which was moving higher and higher. We got a DIP yesterday. Remarkable is that we got a shoot up on VIX which moved by 20% higher. Remember, VIX is a fear gauge. It is showing that traders are very nervous after fed minutes.

Apart from that budget session will begin from today. Whatever is going to happen but it seems that bears will get upper hand. It can never be easy if bears tested blood. I have no great expectation from budget. FM has already given many things before budget in past six months. Now, he must be running short of weapons.

Strategy for Nifty February future – Nifty future has again failed near 5995 and this time it has missed the resistance in a big way. Technical charts are suggesting for the return towards 5910-5900 marks. Remember that premium fluctuation is still very high. Yesterday’s high will act as stiff resistance which was at 5975. So, eventually it has created two important resistances, one is at 5975 and other at 5995. These are critical developments. In the down side watch for fall towards 5910 > 5900 > 5888.  

S&P 500 – I got first cheer on my face in the year 2013. I was busy in forecasting for fall since long. It has tested best of my patience. S&P came very close to 20 EMA which is near 1507. What I was saying is more true on VIX, which shoot up by 20%. A break below 1507-1508 will invite bears with invitation letter. With one day of fall, I am back to comfort levels. One more fall will make my studies on profitable side. Can I put the nail at 1530.94 as top? 80% chances is that I should. Remember, I was the first to put nail at 6111 on NIFTY for top.

Do not break your head in thinking why this fall is. Fed minutes or fed hours, I was already sensing this coming but it came little late. Ask Mr. Ben Barnanke what he got with this stimulus? Was he able to improve job market by keeping stock price higher? 

20 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Do not take higher levels as reliable to buy and hold. We will again get shocks at higher levels. 5980 will be stiff resistance and it may get sold at higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 February 2013: -

On 19 February 2013, FII sold INR 181.57 crs and DII bought INR 24.67 crs.

I am not giving big important to FII/DII data but for the first time in multiple month it came Sell figure by FII. Equally, after a long time DII show a buy figure. It is still a factor and related with market dynamics.

I said yesterday that we have observed some kind of positive divergence on RSI. It was equally mentioned for the move towards 5950 on the crossover of 5922. It hit 5961. It has extended 10 points more due to premium fluctuation.

I never bother about reason so much. Till now I am sensing that it came to be the part of global recovery which has suddenly started yesterday from Euro zone. I still believe that our own market may not extend much inline with global market. It is equally true that we may try to extend toward 5980 as next target.  

If you remember I have quoted about the importance of 20 EMA when Nifty had started falling from higher levels. Now nifty has 20 EMA at 5950 and that was the reason that I quoted as resistance. So far it is looking like to cross on higher side backed by global cues. Yesterday’s low was 5883 and it has saved 5778 support mark.

When we talk about global cues then we cannot sure that Indian market really respond. Look at US market, another newer higher figure. Be cautious at every level as things are yet not comfortable.

Strategy for Nifty February future – Nifty future crossed 5922 and came at 5961 levels. Crossover of 5961 is deriving next resistance at 5995. It may try to come higher but may fail to cross 5995 marks. Take a note that it tried to cross 5995 marks three times between 5^th to 7^th February. I am equally advising caution that if it breaks 5930-5922 levels I the downside then it will came back to same mode. It is not impossible to repeat same story. This market will give many surprises I coming days too.  

S&P 500 – RSI has topped out when it was at 1495. Now it has more than 2.50% move on divergence. It is too big to think. Even 20 EMA came at 1508. There is no sign of weakness and it is still rising. Will we ever able to see fall in US market? It is greatest puzzle and it has never happened in multiple years. I am wrong from many weeks on my correction call. Time is truly running short and correction should begin but still we are unable to see even a single such sign.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

19 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Recovery is coming with small volume so it may not have great life. As long as we are below 5940, every recovery can get sold at higher levels. Support at 5878 only.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 February 2013: -

On 18 February 2013, FII bought INR 142.91 crs and DII sold INR 110.55 crs.

The way things are moving in recovery it is itself creating enough doubt. Yesterday market closed in green but it has traded with very thin volume and those were in very limited ranges. Day’s high-low might as 32 points practically Nifty was moving in just 10-15 points.

It is equally true that daily RSI has given some kind of positive divergence but it is not showing that it will give immediate impact. Still recovery is a part of market movement. Hourly chart has given double inside bar which is not a very encouraging pattern.

Market is not trying to take a call before budget. It is still very clear that the phase of extreme volatility will be back now. It may start trading with volatility from today after a day of silence. There is a band of 5940 to 5878 which will not give easy trades. Suppose, if Nifty trades below 5878 then it will give a push towards 100 SMA which is now at 5832.

I will not give edge for recovery as recovery is a tougher word for Indian market. This market has a chance of slipping in oversold zone too. Remember that nothing has extremely over sold. Look at US market those are rising from last more than one month in extremely over bought zone. My view is that this market is still short on rise.    

Strategy for Nifty February future – Nifty future has very sluggish trades yesterday but there were some impressive developments. Recent high was 5979 and low at 5858. It has almost retraced by 50% with yesterday’s rise. It is true that cross above 5922 will give levels of 5940-5950 levels but will it cross 5922? I will say wait-watch and short at high. In the downside if it sustain even below 5890 for 5-10 minutes then you can expect slide towards 5858. Remember, this market can fall from any levels anytime.

S&P 500 – It is patience testing deal now. This is something which is happening perhaps first time in multiple years. US indices were no such history. 20 EMA is now at 1503. I will again say that keep an eye on 1508 to bet for fall. Above 1500, firstly it has broad the ranges for trading and now narrowing. I am still puzzled. What will begin fall and how? Everything that goes higher has to come under gravity. Let us see. Every night I am hoping for fall but my waiting is turning longer. 

18 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 100 SMA support is now coming at 5830 which is colliding with technical support at 5823. Break below these supports will crack FIIs too. Fall will continue even if bounce comes.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 February 2013: -

On 15 February 2013, FII bought INR 247.30 crs and DII sold INR 245.98 crs.

Nifty hit a 5854 and then it has seen weekend short covering. It gave a last hour rush but closed in negative. This kind of impulse might be coming as Nifty is moving close to 100 SMA. If you remember same things were happening near 20 EMA support.

Technical charts are saying that we are entering in oversold zone. Remember that market can rise in over bought zone and fall in over sold zone. Well, but we are not in those kind of oversold zone yet which makes the recovery a compulsion.

I still believe that any weakness in global market can make situation in India more troublesome. I marked Nifty movement from 01 December 2012 with some line movement. It is giving me a sense that it may try to for H&S pattern. Definitely, it is not a text book 100% H&S yet but it is enough to suggest that one has to be very careful if it breaks 5823 marks. Take a note that even if fall comes then it will not be straight line fall.

One can sense a small positive divergence on daily RSI on lows. This is something which can give rise (again, it is not so strong to make a compulsion). On higher side it can come to the levels of 5920 and then at 5940 levels.

I am sure that trading range will not be as big I am expecting so it needs some time to give all colors of trading and analysis. I have just one strong set of words, “No recovery will sustain and get sold every higher level”.

Strategy for Nifty February future – Once it has broken 5900 I was expecting 5850 > 5820 levels. It has mild technical support at 5850 but this is less technical and more psychological support. Technical charts are suggesting that this market will touch 5830 – 5823 zone sooner or later. Take a note that Nifty spot 100 SMA is at 5830 levels. I am assuming for technical resistance at 5900-5910. Even if it crosses then also it can turn dull at 5940 levels. Break below 5830-5823 will create panic. Yes, a panic selling can hit this market. Remember, till now I was saying sell on the rise but now if panic comes then it will be sell on low too.   

S&P 500 – It is patience testing deal now. This is something which is happening perhaps first time in multiple years. US indices were no such history. 20 EMA is now at 1503. I will again say that keep an eye on 1508 to bet for fall. Above 1500, firstly it has broad the ranges for trading and now narrowing. I am still puzzled. What will begin fall and how? Everything that goes higher has to come under gravity. Let us see. Every night I am hoping for fall but my waiting is turning longer.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

15 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nothing is sustaining at higher levels or in any price recovery. It was warned earlier and fall has not yet done. It will continue. Do you remember that our market is falling from the day we got repo rate cut?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 February 2013: -

On 14 February 2013, FII bought INR 321.26 crs and DII sold INR 248.99 crs.

Bears are showing their command on Indian market with each passing day. Nifty is failing at each recovery and resistances. I have already warned for such development. Charts are showing that it is useless to calculate supports.

Yesterday, we got inflation data at 6.60%, which was much better than what market were anticipating. It seems that our economy is heading for stagflation. In general, market finds it very difficult to recover in this kind of phases. Almost all global market has moved sharply higher in 2012 backed by stimulus. Now Euro zone is giving fresh sign of slow down. I have already given my view in October 2012 for the return of experiencing slowdown in few months. It is coming. Ask Super Mario for his next great action plan.

A technical chart for Nifty is alarming. Support if it breaks 5879 then we can expect a move towards 100 DMA. I have already given support in the zone of 5823 to 5800 while 100 DMA is at 5828 levels.

Corporate earning is not looking very encouraging in India after Infosys result so it was like first result remains the best result of the market. Looking at Tata Steel, SBIN, Tata Motors or DLF – all are bad set of numbers.  

There is another important development, Wipro and SIEMENS are moving out of Nifty. It seems that index management team will do their best to save Nifty. It is those frequent churning because of which market is not showing the pain of the fall. Look at RCOM – slipped from 92 to 65. If you remember, we have quoted for 65 few days back.

Strategy for Nifty February future – It came in discount. It was not entirely unexpected. Technical charts were hinting for support at 5900 but that has also broken. Now it is opening cope for 70 to 100 points of fall. Time retracement was showing for some consolidation for 2 to 4 days of trades. We manage to see only two positive closing. It will have stiff resistance at 5940 marks. Now suppose if Nifty sustain below 5880 then a quicker fall cannot rule out. Even if market saves today then also it will fall on next week.

S&P 500 – It is same old story. It seems that nothing can bring US market down. Very slowly but very steadily it is moving higher day by day. It has opened weak and closed stronger. Technical charts are already giving massive negative divergence and this market need to act anytime but that time is not coming yet. 20 EMA has moved even above 1500 marks now. (Do you remember that Nifty cracked only when it has broken its 20 EMA @ 6020). I have two thresholds for bear, first is at 1508 and next at 1500.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

14 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I have quoted a level of 5967 yesterday and fall from those levels is not good news for bulls. It was a weak recovery and fall may resume very soon. Today? Tomorrow? Or Monday?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 14February 2013: -

On 13 February 2013, FII bought INR 800.31 crs and DII sold INR 289.69 crs.

I have already indicated for weak recovery. We have seen higher start and hit levels of 5969. After hitting 5969, Nifty was never comfortable at higher levels. Finally it starts falling in second half of trades. Can we conclude that recovery is over? No, it is too early to conclude. I am still feeling for range bound trading till Friday to satisfy chart unless something really goes wrong in global market. I am already anticipating that global can also join fall very soon. Till now, it is still a waiting.

What was 5967? If you take fall from 6111.80 to 5879.10 then 38.20 % retrenchment comes at 5967.99 levels. So, rise stuck there. Take a note that it has closed below 5940 again. Global weakness can hit fuel to this fall.

Time consolidation suggests that we should see consolidation of at least four trading sessions. So we still have room to consolidate for today and tomorrow. Well, this is still challenging to bet anything for positive now a day.

It does not matter where it opens, what is important is where it closes. I am not expecting great trading move today. Market will wait for inflation data which is scheduled to code today. One should look for support at 5900 and 5880 only. It is looking like decisive fall below 5880 will come by Monday only. I still like to say that nothing is looking impossible for bears in India.

Hopes are building for budget but a good budget for you may not be a good budget for corporate. Near to expectation I am not expecting anything coming great on reforms. Can you still believe that FDI in retail was a fruitful reform? Look at GDP and IIP data. Government of India has to control its expenses as the first step of reform. This is basic of economics but government is targeting easier options.

Strategy for Nifty February future – I have already warned you from fluctuating premium. Day before yesterday it has closed with premium of 25 points and yesterday it closed with premium of 6 points. This is wild factor to handle and it will not end till the expiry of this month series. I have said that I am sensing for stretch towards 5984 and it ended with a higher at 5979. This is again developing odd patterns. I can conclude that no higher levels can sustain in this market. Be opportunistic in short selling.

S&P 500 – It hit a high at 1524.69 levels which is highest levels of past five years. Will it fall now? It is still tougher to conclude as this is just a pause. One should keep an eye on 1508 to bet for any profit taking. Someday some time it has to come under gravity. My view is still same that time has come and now market has to respond. It is heavily over bought. Will it try to close above 1525 also? I do not expect that to happen but it is equally true that I was not expecting even 1500. My charts are still suggesting that we should expect a dip.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

13 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Recovery came after continuous fall. It is making support at 5880 and it can fly up to 5960 and then 5980. It is going to be a weak recovery.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 February 2013: -

On 12 February 2013, FII bought INR 604.16 crs and DII sold INR 412.15 crs.

We have not seen even a single negative day by FII in this year yet. There is no disappointment yet in spite of recent few days of sell off in Indian market. I am getting some signs of recovery. It is still a big question if that recovery sustains or sold at higher levels.

After a long time technical indicators like RSI is trying to change its direction. I cannot say that RSI is heavily oversold. So I am assuming that upcoming recovery, starting from yesterday, will have a short life.

Few days back CSO has presented GDP expectation at 5% and yesterday IIP data came at negative 0.60%. It is an indication that best efforts from government is failing to boost economy at fundamental side. I do not think that market cares a lot about fundamental data.  

Technical charting patterns are more interesting now. We have seen triple attempt to break 5880 but all has failed. For one time it hit 5779.10 before bouncing. Charts suggest that it can stretch towards 5967 and then it may try to come at 5995. These are nothing but Fibonacci resistances. I still like to warn that Indian market can still surprise. It does not matter what charts are saying.   

Nifty deserve a bounce as long as it is saving 5880. I can conclude that bounce should be impressive but it may not happen in reality. Let us see, for today’s session if I get some dip then I will prefer to buy with small stop loss.   

Strategy for Nifty February future – It has saved 5900 marks and then we have seen a bounce. First logical target that comes in my mind is coming at 5984 levels. I can still say that I am not fully confident about recovery. It is giving me a sense that we are just in 2-3 days kind of recovery which is very obvious after 11 days of fall. If I like to buy then I will buy in dip and I will place a must stop loss at 5900 levels. Till yesterday, I was saying to watch for the break of 5900. Today, I will say watch for the saving of 5900.  

S&P 500 – It is looking like US market will never fall. It was another rising day with no sign of profit taking. It seems that my call on making top is getting wrong in US market. I will not say that it has reduced the intensity of rise. From now onwards, if S&P has to fall then it has to make its own timing and own reasons. I am sensing that Dow Jones may even try to test 14168 marks. Will it try or miss that we may able to see in coming days. Right now, US market is biggest puzzle to solve. Let us allow best market analyst to solve it. Best analyst of this market is market itself.    

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

12 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It has another pause near 5880 levels but still there is no sign of any technical recovery. We need global sell off to bet for further remarkable fall. Is it coming sooner?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 February 2013: -

On 11 February 2013, FII bought INR 995.83 crs and DII sold INR 940.90 crs.

Shall we cheer about this money flow or shall we worry about this kind of money flow? Even after such heavy money flow, Indian market is drifting lower. Global markets are still trading on firm note. We got more than 210 points of selling on Nifty and yet not giving even a single sign of recovery.  

Shall I try to find out technical support for recovery? No, I am not trying to do that. Every support can fail to give support before acting on final one. I want to see revival on technical indicators first then I will try to find support. Unfortunately, technical indicators are not giving any sign of revival but true those are entering in over sold zone.

Is it sufficient to think about recovery? No, entering in oversold zone cannot be only criteria. We need to see strength in those. Indian market is in 11^th trading session today after hitting a fresh 52 week high at 6111.80. Core of the study is that we may expect more weakness before we see any recovery.

If you look at intraday trading pattern then you can understand that we are getting 25-30 points of technical recovery everyday but all got sold. I can sense only a consolidation but substantial recovery may not come. I am still feeling that we are temporarily out of zone to buy stocks. So, one should try to make exit from long position if one have.

Do remember, I said many times in whole January month that market is forming top above 6000. Hope you would have make exit from your long deals much earlier.

Market is going to focus its eye on upcoming IIP data which will be presented today. You can expect this data coming at 1%.

Strategy for Nifty February future – It was a narrower trading band and we have experienced fluctuating premium. It was definitely expected. Well, it has never broken 5900 yet. I am still suggesting that one need to focus on 5900 levels. If it breaks and sustain then you can expect fall towards 5850 levels. On higher side 5950 to 5960 levels. I said that we need to see global correction to bet for further fall. Remember that Indian market is looking perhaps weakest in the world. Even a small global drift can easily give some hurt to our market. Use higher levels or recovery to build short position.  

S&P 500 – Wall Street goes mad with this kind of rise. We have seen a pause last night. A pause is not sufficient to conclude for profit taking. I am still considering it for profit taking/ weakness to come. Narrow trading band after wild movement above 1500 is making a puzzle. Charts are demanding for technical correction. Threshold for fall is coming higher. Now it seems that even the break 1505 will result a move towards 1495 and then steep fall cannot ruled out. Technical resistance will be at 1520.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

11 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It was almost very close to 5880. Any further break will give 5823 to 5800 levels. If global market goes wrong then we will have troubling fall.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 February 2013: -

On 08 February 2013, FII bought INR 1490.82 crs and DII sold INR 709.36 crs.

I must add that FII has invested more than USD 7 billion but our market is still falling. This fall is more concerning due to insufficient talk about the reasons. 5% GDP projection should be sufficient reason for fall but I am not correct to big extent. It is looking like market may not have great expectation from budget. Something is hurting this market.

One must note that Nifty has 50 days moving average at 5960 levels. Nifty has slipped to a big extent but it is still too early to say that bears are having 100% command over market. Global market is still trading on stable mode. I am equally saying that most of global indices are on the verge of breaking if not falling till now. Even Japanese indices are not comforting at such higher levels. It must be the matter of time before breaking those indices.

Firstly, it has broken 20 EMA and then it has broken 50 SMA. Once broken then it has never crossed higher. It has spent nine trading sessions after hitting 6111 levels. There is no signal sign of recovery yet.

When it has broken 5940 then it had generated the target of 5900 to 5880. Now, suppose if it breaks 5880 then it will see Nifty coming in the range of 5823 to 5800 levels. Moving on higher side Nifty will have stiff resistance at 5960 to 5980 levels.

In general we may say for some technical recovery or consolidation but just think that if global market also starts giving up then we will have much bigger pain of fall.  

Strategy for Nifty February future –It was quoted on Friday, “it has broken 5960 - 5950 and this is fair enough to assume that we have traded below 5960 for long time. Technically it needs to see a fall towards 5910 levels. If it breaks 5910-5900 then it will directly rest at 5850 levels.” Check Friday’s low. I stock on my words. If it breaks and sustain below 5900 then we can expect 5850 too. Fluctuating premium is still my big concerns. I will not be surprised if goes in discount at some time before derivative expiry. It will have critical resistances; one is at 5950 and other at 5995. Take a note that 5995 was mentioned in past few days which remains untested.

S&P 500 – It is still rising. It is looking like it will never stop now. Well, these kinds of patterns are not new towards such top. RSI or MACD, each one is giving us a sell signals. Technical charts are suggesting for a break point at 1495 levels. Once it breaks 1495 then we will see the beginning of fall. Till that time we can just wait and wait. I still believe that this fall may begin anytime.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar