20 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Do not take higher levels as reliable to buy and hold. We will again get shocks at higher levels. 5980 will be stiff resistance and it may get sold at higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 February 2013: -

On 19 February 2013, FII sold INR 181.57 crs and DII bought INR 24.67 crs.

I am not giving big important to FII/DII data but for the first time in multiple month it came Sell figure by FII. Equally, after a long time DII show a buy figure. It is still a factor and related with market dynamics.

I said yesterday that we have observed some kind of positive divergence on RSI. It was equally mentioned for the move towards 5950 on the crossover of 5922. It hit 5961. It has extended 10 points more due to premium fluctuation.

I never bother about reason so much. Till now I am sensing that it came to be the part of global recovery which has suddenly started yesterday from Euro zone. I still believe that our own market may not extend much inline with global market. It is equally true that we may try to extend toward 5980 as next target.  

If you remember I have quoted about the importance of 20 EMA when Nifty had started falling from higher levels. Now nifty has 20 EMA at 5950 and that was the reason that I quoted as resistance. So far it is looking like to cross on higher side backed by global cues. Yesterday’s low was 5883 and it has saved 5778 support mark.

When we talk about global cues then we cannot sure that Indian market really respond. Look at US market, another newer higher figure. Be cautious at every level as things are yet not comfortable.

Strategy for Nifty February future – Nifty future crossed 5922 and came at 5961 levels. Crossover of 5961 is deriving next resistance at 5995. It may try to come higher but may fail to cross 5995 marks. Take a note that it tried to cross 5995 marks three times between 5^th to 7^th February. I am equally advising caution that if it breaks 5930-5922 levels I the downside then it will came back to same mode. It is not impossible to repeat same story. This market will give many surprises I coming days too.  

S&P 500 – RSI has topped out when it was at 1495. Now it has more than 2.50% move on divergence. It is too big to think. Even 20 EMA came at 1508. There is no sign of weakness and it is still rising. Will we ever able to see fall in US market? It is greatest puzzle and it has never happened in multiple years. I am wrong from many weeks on my correction call. Time is truly running short and correction should begin but still we are unable to see even a single such sign.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar