15 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nothing is sustaining at higher levels or in any price recovery. It was warned earlier and fall has not yet done. It will continue. Do you remember that our market is falling from the day we got repo rate cut?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 February 2013: -

On 14 February 2013, FII bought INR 321.26 crs and DII sold INR 248.99 crs.

Bears are showing their command on Indian market with each passing day. Nifty is failing at each recovery and resistances. I have already warned for such development. Charts are showing that it is useless to calculate supports.

Yesterday, we got inflation data at 6.60%, which was much better than what market were anticipating. It seems that our economy is heading for stagflation. In general, market finds it very difficult to recover in this kind of phases. Almost all global market has moved sharply higher in 2012 backed by stimulus. Now Euro zone is giving fresh sign of slow down. I have already given my view in October 2012 for the return of experiencing slowdown in few months. It is coming. Ask Super Mario for his next great action plan.

A technical chart for Nifty is alarming. Support if it breaks 5879 then we can expect a move towards 100 DMA. I have already given support in the zone of 5823 to 5800 while 100 DMA is at 5828 levels.

Corporate earning is not looking very encouraging in India after Infosys result so it was like first result remains the best result of the market. Looking at Tata Steel, SBIN, Tata Motors or DLF – all are bad set of numbers.  

There is another important development, Wipro and SIEMENS are moving out of Nifty. It seems that index management team will do their best to save Nifty. It is those frequent churning because of which market is not showing the pain of the fall. Look at RCOM – slipped from 92 to 65. If you remember, we have quoted for 65 few days back.

Strategy for Nifty February future – It came in discount. It was not entirely unexpected. Technical charts were hinting for support at 5900 but that has also broken. Now it is opening cope for 70 to 100 points of fall. Time retracement was showing for some consolidation for 2 to 4 days of trades. We manage to see only two positive closing. It will have stiff resistance at 5940 marks. Now suppose if Nifty sustain below 5880 then a quicker fall cannot rule out. Even if market saves today then also it will fall on next week.

S&P 500 – It is same old story. It seems that nothing can bring US market down. Very slowly but very steadily it is moving higher day by day. It has opened weak and closed stronger. Technical charts are already giving massive negative divergence and this market need to act anytime but that time is not coming yet. 20 EMA has moved even above 1500 marks now. (Do you remember that Nifty cracked only when it has broken its 20 EMA @ 6020). I have two thresholds for bear, first is at 1508 and next at 1500.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar