11 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It was almost very close to 5880. Any further break will give 5823 to 5800 levels. If global market goes wrong then we will have troubling fall.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 February 2013: -

On 08 February 2013, FII bought INR 1490.82 crs and DII sold INR 709.36 crs.

I must add that FII has invested more than USD 7 billion but our market is still falling. This fall is more concerning due to insufficient talk about the reasons. 5% GDP projection should be sufficient reason for fall but I am not correct to big extent. It is looking like market may not have great expectation from budget. Something is hurting this market.

One must note that Nifty has 50 days moving average at 5960 levels. Nifty has slipped to a big extent but it is still too early to say that bears are having 100% command over market. Global market is still trading on stable mode. I am equally saying that most of global indices are on the verge of breaking if not falling till now. Even Japanese indices are not comforting at such higher levels. It must be the matter of time before breaking those indices.

Firstly, it has broken 20 EMA and then it has broken 50 SMA. Once broken then it has never crossed higher. It has spent nine trading sessions after hitting 6111 levels. There is no signal sign of recovery yet.

When it has broken 5940 then it had generated the target of 5900 to 5880. Now, suppose if it breaks 5880 then it will see Nifty coming in the range of 5823 to 5800 levels. Moving on higher side Nifty will have stiff resistance at 5960 to 5980 levels.

In general we may say for some technical recovery or consolidation but just think that if global market also starts giving up then we will have much bigger pain of fall.  

Strategy for Nifty February future –It was quoted on Friday, “it has broken 5960 - 5950 and this is fair enough to assume that we have traded below 5960 for long time. Technically it needs to see a fall towards 5910 levels. If it breaks 5910-5900 then it will directly rest at 5850 levels.” Check Friday’s low. I stock on my words. If it breaks and sustain below 5900 then we can expect 5850 too. Fluctuating premium is still my big concerns. I will not be surprised if goes in discount at some time before derivative expiry. It will have critical resistances; one is at 5950 and other at 5995. Take a note that 5995 was mentioned in past few days which remains untested.

S&P 500 – It is still rising. It is looking like it will never stop now. Well, these kinds of patterns are not new towards such top. RSI or MACD, each one is giving us a sell signals. Technical charts are suggesting for a break point at 1495 levels. Once it breaks 1495 then we will see the beginning of fall. Till that time we can just wait and wait. I still believe that this fall may begin anytime.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar