27 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It hit 5760 sooner than expected. This is extremely nervous market and may head towards 5548. No recovery can sustain unless we stand strong above 5830.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 February 2013: -

On 26 February 2013, FII bought INR 74.68 crs and DII sold INR 160.61 crs.

Above figures are also indicating that money is turning sluggish now. FII are gaining money? They were aggressive above 5800 and very aggressive above 6000 marks. When I claim in the month of January that we are forming top, I was feeling that somehow this easy money flow will stop sometime.

If you get trapped in mid cap then you should just blame yourself. I have warned more than enough time in January month. Market has given much longer time to decide and exit. It is the history of any market that retail traders buy stocks near high. Many mid cap stocks has corrected by more than 20% when Nifty slipped only by 4-5%.

Do not expect anything from SEBI. They can just do one thing – Enquiry after you lost. A purposeless and result less enquiry. I just know one thing that fall always comes in this way in mid cap irrespective of SEBI actions.

I have already given hint for this fall. To my paid subscriber I had discussed about the target of 5823 to 5780. My expected pre-budget sell off has done with my target but still there is no single sign of recovery. Even if recovery comes then also it will not be reliable. Look at past 20 trading sessions. Nifty got sold even after 100 points of rise.

I have discussed about the few things about technical shape of this market.

1. We got confirmation of H&S pattern as Nifty has broken below 5823. Now it will have stiff resistance at 5823. Best case recovery can give you 5823 to 5850 only. This pattern is giving me a target of 5548. I am sure that most bulls are scared about this figure in their mind but not talking.
2. Moving average sequence – Firstly, we broke 20 EMA @ 6020. Then it has broken 50 SMA @ 5960. Now it has refused to move above 100 SMA yesterday which was at 5843. What is next? 200 SMA is at 5538 as of now.

I am shorting this market from 6000 to the rise towards 6100. Even if the recovery comes then also it cannot do any big damage for bears. Take a note that US market has not even started the correction.

Strategy for Nifty February future – I was expecting 5780 as minimum target but it was giving me more than that. Many traders are asking how long can this type of fall sustain.  When it was rising people were asking when it will fall. Now when it is falling people are asking when it will rise. Even bears get scared of this fall now but there is no sign of recovery yet. Look at the support 5757 for Nifty February future. On higher side 5800-5815 will be stiff resistance. Today’s trading can nervous and almost dead.

S&P 500 – Mr. Ben Barnanke is talking something which does not have any big sense but fact is that US market has recovered on his tone. It is looking like bulls are not ready to give up easily in USA but sooner or later they have to give up. Fall is the destiny of global market, no matter if it India or USA. I still believe that logical targets are 1460 and then 1445. I am not saying these as monthly targets. These should come in 3-4 trading sessions.