13 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Recovery came after continuous fall. It is making support at 5880 and it can fly up to 5960 and then 5980. It is going to be a weak recovery.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 February 2013: -

On 12 February 2013, FII bought INR 604.16 crs and DII sold INR 412.15 crs.

We have not seen even a single negative day by FII in this year yet. There is no disappointment yet in spite of recent few days of sell off in Indian market. I am getting some signs of recovery. It is still a big question if that recovery sustains or sold at higher levels.

After a long time technical indicators like RSI is trying to change its direction. I cannot say that RSI is heavily oversold. So I am assuming that upcoming recovery, starting from yesterday, will have a short life.

Few days back CSO has presented GDP expectation at 5% and yesterday IIP data came at negative 0.60%. It is an indication that best efforts from government is failing to boost economy at fundamental side. I do not think that market cares a lot about fundamental data.  

Technical charting patterns are more interesting now. We have seen triple attempt to break 5880 but all has failed. For one time it hit 5779.10 before bouncing. Charts suggest that it can stretch towards 5967 and then it may try to come at 5995. These are nothing but Fibonacci resistances. I still like to warn that Indian market can still surprise. It does not matter what charts are saying.   

Nifty deserve a bounce as long as it is saving 5880. I can conclude that bounce should be impressive but it may not happen in reality. Let us see, for today’s session if I get some dip then I will prefer to buy with small stop loss.   

Strategy for Nifty February future – It has saved 5900 marks and then we have seen a bounce. First logical target that comes in my mind is coming at 5984 levels. I can still say that I am not fully confident about recovery. It is giving me a sense that we are just in 2-3 days kind of recovery which is very obvious after 11 days of fall. If I like to buy then I will buy in dip and I will place a must stop loss at 5900 levels. Till yesterday, I was saying to watch for the break of 5900. Today, I will say watch for the saving of 5900.  

S&P 500 – It is looking like US market will never fall. It was another rising day with no sign of profit taking. It seems that my call on making top is getting wrong in US market. I will not say that it has reduced the intensity of rise. From now onwards, if S&P has to fall then it has to make its own timing and own reasons. I am sensing that Dow Jones may even try to test 14168 marks. Will it try or miss that we may able to see in coming days. Right now, US market is biggest puzzle to solve. Let us allow best market analyst to solve it. Best analyst of this market is market itself.    

Regards,

Praveen Kumar