26 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Technical was hinting for 5823 as support but there is no sign of revival even at this level. Market will watch towards Rail Budget and how can you forget 216 points sell off in Dow Jones last night.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 February 2013: -

On 25 February 2013, FII bought INR 246.71 crs and DII sold INR 161.97 crs.

FII money flow is also looking nervous now after a phase of serious under performance. Now, I like to see how market is going to move today when Dow Jones lost more than 200 points last night. I am saying about correction in US market from past 3-4 weeks but it was not coming. When it comes it came in its own style. Anyway our market is near to Union Budget day and that may be the next big event.

Nifty has a low at 5825 which was very close to 5823. One needs to note that 5823 was lowest point of past December month series.  I am already keeping my views bearish towards market irrespective of impulsive recoveries. Technical charts are still suggesting that it will break 5823 and move for lower levels.

I was quoting 100 SMA from past many trading sessions. It has broken those mark yesterday but unable to hold below that. Picture will be different today. It is looking like to open with major gap down. Do not surprise if it breaks below 5800 in first few minutes or in gap down.

I have already said about the H&S pattern which is giving a hint for 5600 to 5548 as target. Is it coming? Only time can answer. Whenever I say ‘be bearish’, I mean for price fall in share price. Now, can we say that all price fall can be reflected by Nifty? Perhaps not.

In past three weeks, I have warned about serious fall in Unitech, HDIL, Optocuit, Rcom, IVRCLINFRA etc. Look at the damage done on those stocks. Why these stocks are falling so much? There is a new stock in this series, Core Education which has seen the fall of more than 30% yesterday. Management failed to explain this sell off. I always said that you have to protect your money from such ugly stocks.

Market will open near 5800-5780 marks and then it will go in pause mode till rail budget begins. It has a higher chance of dancing with Mr. Pawan Kumar Bansal’s tone.

Strategy for Nifty February future – I said about 5830-5820 for yesterday. It hit a low at 5822 and stopped at 5882. My quoted resistance was at 5889. I am not expecting tremendous volatility on higher side. Charts are suggesting that things may disappoint market but slightly. Even for today resistance will be at 5889. I am expecting levels of 5780 marks as minimum target. I am bearish from 29^th January 2013 with my fruitful shorts. Let us see how much fall will come today but I will definitely not going to try to catch falling knife.  

S&P 500 – It came at 1488. I am maintaining short from long time on the anticipation of fall. Finally it came. More than S&P look at Dow Jones. It hit newer hit at 14081 backed by enjoyment over Italian election and then slipped massively. Take a note that even Italian market slipped over 700 points from the day’s high. I have already predicted that outcome will not favour market mood. What is next for S&P? No more logic needed. I am expecting 1450-1440 levels.