22 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Fall looks like to continue without pause. Technical support is at 5823 to 5800 marks. Further break below 5800 will result more fall and more panic. This is well informed fall.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 February 2013: -

On 21 February 2013, FII bought INR 1213.57 crs and DII sold INR 228.78 crs.

Before you get shocked with above FII buy figure I must tell you that it has an effect of Shriram Transport block deal. Still this is a good figure. Those who make FII data as only parameter to conclude trend may try to conclude for recovery but I am not in those group. Very clearly, those who were buying above 6000 are forced to earn loss.

I have said throughout January month that market is under the formation of top. I gave very fruitful study about India VIX, Which gave us a hint for rise from 12.57-12.50 ranges. It was VIX which gave me a hint for this fall which is coming. I heard about multiple betting on 6200, 6300 or new life time high but those turn out to be optimistic call only. Now VIX came near 17. You can read fresh predictions based on VIX in my weekly analysis on my official web only on Sunday.

It was also mentioned 6126 as dead line levels for Nifty and it return from 6111. I have said that rate cut will not help India and we are falling from the day we got first repo rate cut. (Do not tell me that we are getting CRR from last year, CRR is not a rate, it is Cash reserve ratio).  

I said about a possible H&S pattern emerging on Nifty daily chart. You can focus on the given chart. I am sure that you need to be agreeing with me even to little extent. Now charts are saying that even 50-60 points of recovery can be bigger thing for market. It is also visible on that chart that Nifty is just at 100 DMA. If it breaks then it will give a push towards 5780 first and then a panic mode (which is already on) will intensify.

I am considering 5900 to 5920 as a very critical resistance. You can expect crack below 5800 now and that can come any moment. Well, note is very strongly that H&S pattern is giving a target at 5600-5548 levels.

Strategy for Nifty February future – We have shorted this at 5860 levels on Wednesday and till now we are getting almost 110 points. Truly, I am not ready to give up so easily. Technical charts are suggesting that 5880-5900 will be now tougher to cross. Who knows if I can get 5800-5780 by today itself? SGX NIFTY is hinting me for a 25-30 points of lower start and that can push Nifty below 100 DMA. One more fall and I can be on party mode on this weekend.

S&P 500 – I was saying about the importance of 20 EMA for S&P too. It has broken 1508. Last night it almost hit 1495 before some intraday rebound. Now 80% chances is that no one can save US market from bears (like us). Technical charts are suggesting for a target of 1470. Do not conclude that it can recover from those levels. We may see more dipper fall is US market. Reasons are still not good enough for bigger sell off. It is looking like those US traders are betting something on Italian election which is going to be conducted on weekend.