30 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Once again, keep an eye on two important figure for NIFTY, one is at 7485 and 7440. Bulls must give their best to save 7440 !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 June 2014: -

On 27 June 2014, FII Bought INR 182.55 crs and DII Sold INR 172.40 crs

Nifty came very close to expected support of 7485. I have already said that 7485 is a support and 7440 is a last hope for on-going consolidation. We need to make things clear for trade – if it slips below 7440 then there will some reason for panic sell off. In short, bulls need to save 7440 till budget. Current pattern is ugly as Nifty has closed below 20 DMA for second day in row. Friday’s high was on dot at 20 DMA. So 7540 may turn a decision resistance for today’s trade.

Technical charts are suggesting that if it breaks 7485-7480 levels then we can see quick fire move towards 7440. As it is a last hope support at 7440 so there is an equal chance of quick bounce from 7440 levels.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7440 and resistance will be at 7540 and 7550 levels. If it breaks 7440 then one can expect sharp selling. It may turn in to panic selling too. Believe it or not but market does not like few deferred decision by Modi’s government. Is Mr. Modi going on Manmohan ways? Just pray that it should not be like that. There are strong possibility that upcoming budget will have many populist measure.  If selling continues in gas stocks then things can be ugly. Weak monsoon will be a catalyst for weakness in market if it breaks 7440.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future should open near 7530-7540 and then immediate trading support should emerge at 7500 levels. If it sustain below 7500 then things will turn alarming. 7500 may act as last hope as ‘make or break’ levels. On higher side 7575-7580 will act as stiff trading resistance. Rock hard support will be at 7460-7470

S&P 500 (USA) – I need to repeat, as long as S&P is oscillating between 1970 to 1945 we cannot get trading direction even near all-time high. It has ended week at 1960+ which is still a positive factor. It is still not going to be easy to surpass 1970-1980 ranges. As we have not got desired ‘summer correction’ this year so market may come with something new. What that can be?

27 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: New series will open on weak note. Last and final hope for Nifty spot will be at 7440. If it breaks 7440 then we will see another round of selling. Technical resistance = 7525-7550!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 June 2014: -

On 26 June 2014, FII Sold INR 601.89 crs and DII Bought INR 170.92 crs

I have updated for the support at 7500 and 7485 during market hours. We saw sell off continue till end and hitting 7485. Next, question is where next technical levels are. Charts have some clear message for trading. We have technical support at 7440. This must be last hope for short term up trend. If it breaks and sustain below 7440 then we can see a drag towards 7300 also.

It is interesting to note that Nifty has closed below 20 DMA supports which are at 7525. In fact, it hit sharp sell off yesterday when it broke 7525. So, it was meaningful break below 7525. Hence, 7525 will act as stiff trading resistance for today’ trading session. As long as it is below 7525 we cannot expect any good recovery in index. Simply, bears will have upper hand below 7525.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7440 and resistance will be at 7525 and 7550 levels. If it breaks 7440 then one can expect sharp selling. It may turn in to panic selling too. Believe it or not but market does not like few deferred decision by Modi’s government. If selling continues in gas stocks then things can be ugly. Weak monsoon will be a catalyst for weakness in market if it breaks 7440.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future should open near 7530 and then immediate trading support should emerge at 7500 levels. If it sustain below 7500 then things will turn alarming. 7500 may act as last hope as ‘make or break’ levels. On higher side 7575-7580 will act as stiff trading resistance. Today is first day of new series.

S&P 500 (USA) – It was said yesterday that I want trade below 1945 to conclude for weakness. It hit 1945 and bounces and so things remain same again. S&P may not be useful instrument to trade in the range of 1945 to 1970. Well, it is equally true that I am wrong on my ‘summer correction’ call. It never came and there is no such sign yet. Technical indicators are moving with negative divergence and I am waiting for decisive signal. Once again, keep your eye on 1945.  

26 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Gas price hike differed for three months more and it may have an impact on gas stocks. Nifty has technical resistance at 7600 and 7630. Be cautious ahead of derivative expiry.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 June 2014: -

On 25 June 2014, FII Bought INR 694.63 crs and DII Sold INR 433.63 crs

I was expecting a dull move before expiry and we got that. Now, today is derivative expiry of June month contract. There is little odd news which market needs to face today. One is that gas price hike deferred for three months more. This was unexpected. It gives us a sense that NDA is also going on UPA way where decisions goes pending. We can only hope that market would not take such message.

US market recovered a little last night and Asian shares are higher with Iraq concern. It just means that US market has not got the follow up selling. So, now there is a strong possibility of few days of side wise trading direction to continue for few more days.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7550 and 7500 levels and resistance will be at 7600 and 7630 levels. Derivative expiry day is always beyond expectation. It looks like it can be volatile and wild but it may not. It may be relatively silent. Let us see where it ends.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty June future may open near 7600 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Immediate trading support will be at 7590 levels. Break below 7590 will again push bulls back and bears may take a charge. On higher side, resistance will emerge at 7650 levels. Cross above 7650 will drive new wave of rise. Technical set up are same as of yesterday.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P closed with a gain of more than 9 points and made an equalizer. It is fair to say that we have not got follow up selling yesterday but still resistance are supposed to high in the zone of 197X. Even to be bearish, I Want trade below 1945 to conclude. So, US indices are a avoid right now with side wise move to continue for few days more or unless it goes below 1945. 

25 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Iraq effect can again over shadow the hope of reforms in budget. Nifty has technical resistance at 7600 and 7630. Be cautious ahead of derivative expiry.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 June 2014: -

On 24 June 2014, FII Bought INR 284.61 crs and DII Sold INR 216.17 crs

Once again oil was heavy on Wall Street in the last night trades. Dow Jones took a dip of 119 points. Indian market is little different from rest of the world due to the hope of upcoming reformed directed budget. Well, I still feel that it is not easy to ignore higher oil price as current situation is worse than a year for countries like India too.

After yesterday’s sharp rise, we have almost done with majority of pre-budget rally and Indian market will head towards global cues too. What I feel is that we may not have scope of good rise from current levels before budget or at least till derivative expiry tomorrow.

I have already quoted in past two-three days that global market can turn shaky any day and any time now. It slipped last night. If follow up selling comes today then we may see deeper cut on blue chip indices. So today’s trading will be decisive.  

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7550 and 7500 levels and resistance will be at 7600 and 7630 levels. I have not added low from lower levels yesterday and the decisive was right. Technical charts are suggesting that we may see levels of 7600+ in today’s session. In my view, higher levels will invite bears to play again. Can it break 7500 again on oil concern? Yes, but only if oil stocks slips. Indian market gets good domination by oil stocks on the talk over hike in oil price and gas price.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty June future may open near 7620-7630 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Immediate trading support will be at 7590 levels. Break below 7590 will again push bulls back and bears may take a charge. On higher side, resistance will emerge at 7650 levels. Cross above 7650 will drive new wave of rise. Chances are less for the extension of yesterday’s rise.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P closed lower by 12 points last night on Iraq concern. It is still just above 1945 levels threshold levels. It has given a desired big red candle on chart. Now, if it sustain below 1945 then we can see a decisive move towards 1920 levels. Yesterday’s high was 1968 which was closer to my suggested target of 1970. It has slipped nearly 1% from its intraday and all time high top. 

24 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Indian market is under Hindenburg effect with Iraq crisis on derivative expiry week. Short is still a call but add fresh short only below 7445!!! (As explained on weekly chart yesterday)

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 24 June 2014: -

On 23 June 2014, FII Sold INR 214.49 crs and DII Bought INR 117.43 crs

Rail budget is expected on 8^th July followed by economic survey report on 9^th July and then we will get union budget on 10^th July 2014. Indian market will take a sharp before the budget to make a room to react. It is likely to expect that market may remain in the range of 150-200 points till budget now.

I need to say that Narendra Modi’s government is going to present its union budget at unfortunate time with unlimited challenges. He has to face the contraction growth and higher inflation in India and the impact that are coming from unstable Iraq. It is going to be very tough to match with this kind of add timing.

Remember, global market can turn shaky any day and anytime. I have a clear message that if NIFTY breaks the range of 7485 to 7450 then one must prepare for bigger cut. Elliott wave is already giving us a target in the range of 7400-7300 range before budget. We have already seen a low at 7441 yesterday and a bounce came in last 30 minutes. It is giving the importance of 7450 levels. 

Another noticeable charting development is that 20 DMA after 8^th May 2014. It must have its own value.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7480 and 7440 levels and resistance will be at 7530 and 7570 levels. I must add that from lower levels, one must wait for the break of 7440 to add fresh short. Else it will be better to short from higher levels, near to 7570 to add short. Once it breaks below 7440 then we can see all around intraday selling.  

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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7510-7520 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Immediate trading support will be at 7490 levels. Break below 7500 will cause the fall of immediate 30-40 points and a test of 7460. On higher side 7550 to 7570 will be zone of stiff resistance. It seems that we stuck in the side wise direction now. It may see more volatility near to derivative expiry.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P gave a dull trade after marginal negative. Take a note that only a dull trade cannot be sign of top. It may be just odd pause before 1970-1980 top. I still believe that euphoric top can be ugly one but nothing can be ugly unless it closes below 1945 at least and S&P is way too far from that conclusion.  Still, I can issue word of caution to avoid long or protect long with suitable stops. 

23 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Take extreme caution ahead of derivative expiry and Iraq tension. If Nifty breaks 7485 then do not touch this market for long anymore.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 June 2014: -

On 20 June 2014, FII Sold INR 220.65 crs and DII Bought INR 73.85 crs

NDA government is coming with new and bold step to curb economic downturn. This can give a setback to inflation front. It is unfortunate that Modi government is facing Iraq crisis at very wrong time. Overall geopolitical situation can add water over economic recovery. It can be only a summer correction mode.  

As India imports major crude oil from same region so rise in crude price will hurt it much. We have already got fare hike in Indian railway. Now, there are talks over hike in LPG price too. This can add fuel to inflation. Surely, we cannot expect sooner rate cut from RBI now.

Remember, global market can turn shaky any day and anytime. I have a clear message that if NIFTY breaks the range of 7485 to 7450 then one must prepare for bigger cut. Elliott wave is already giving us a target in the range of 7400-7300 range before budget. We are in derivative expiry week now. It is strongly advisable to avoid fuel rate sensitive stocks. Definitely I mean to avoid auto stocks.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7510 and 7485 levels and resistance will be at 7570 and 7600 levels. I must add that from lower levels, one must wait for the break of 7485 to add fresh short. Else it will be better to short from higher levels, near to 7600 to add short.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7540-7550 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Immediate trading support will be at 7510 levels. Break below 7510 will cause the fall of immediate 40-50 points. On higher side 7580 to 7610 will be zone of stiff resistance. It seems that we stuck in the side wise direction now. This will not remain side wise if it breaks 7500. My technical study remains same as of Friday.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P is very likely to hit 1970-1980 levels with negative divergence. As long as this is rising, bulls have upper hand. As of now, as long as it is above 1950, it is likely to sail its rise towards 1970-1980 zone.  This rise may have ugly end at top. Even if one has long trade then also one need to protect long with cautious stop loss. Is psychological 2000 levels coming on S&P? If yes, then it may be euphoric top. 

20 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Panic sell off will begin if Nifty breaks the range of 7485-7470 support. Trading direction will be side wise if market does not give up.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 June 2014: -

On 19 June 2014, FII Sold INR 420.51 crs and DII Bought INR 117.81 crs

Indian market remains in a jitter mode after giving up all gaps up in just one hour of trade yesterday. Have a look on the given chart; it is breaking daily support line.  I have already given a support of 7485 based on gap which is visible on hourly chart.

Now, Nifty has 20 MDA at 7473 levels. So the range of 7485 to 7470 will be most crucial and decisive support in downside. If it breaks this range then we can see panic sell off which can give range of 7400 to 7300. Take a note that, Elliott wave trend is already giving same target from past few days.

Now, let us concentrate the charting pattern. Based on Elliott wave theory we got a top at 7700 levels. If I draw it for target then we should get minimum of 7400 levels which can be violent in the area of 7400 to 7300. Hence, I believe that Nifty can enter in the zone of 7400-7300 before giving fresh rebound.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7510 and 7485 levels and resistance will be at 7570 and 7600 levels. I must add that from lower levels, one must wait for the break of 7485 to add fresh short. Else it will be better to short from higher levels, near to 7600 to add short.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7540 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Immediate trading support will be at 7510 levels. Break below 7510 will cause the fall of immediate 40-50 points. On higher side 7580 to 7610 will be zone of stiff resistance. It seems that we stuck in the side wise direction now. This will not remain side wise if it breaks 7500. Today is the last trading session of the week. Let us see what is coming.  

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P has closed above 1956. It is on new life time high again but not running with rapid euphoria. As long as it is above 1945, this up trend will remain in race. We are likely to see the range of 1970-1980. There is nothing great to add as trend will be side wise with small positive or negative. Although, at new all-time high bulls have upper hand. Let us see what can come before weekend. 

19 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Higher opening is coming after fed comments. Technical resistance for Nifty will be at 7650 plus. Higher levels are still not safe and volatility will continue till union budget.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 June 2014: -

On 18 June 2014, FII Bought INR 366.18 crs and DII Bought INR 318.15 crs

We heard that union budget may come in second week of July. Government is planning for big FDI approval for Indian railway. So, railway stocks will be on lime light for the day. Now, apart from this, Indian market may get boost by rise in US market last night.

Charts are not saying that we are going to get a stable rise as we have a heavy supply line on hourly chart. I have warned yesterday also for higher levels. We saw a sharp dip from top on Iraq concern. I am again repeating that levels above 7600-7650 will not sustain in market. Elliott wave study is still hinting for 7400-7300 zone for Nifty before Union budget.  

Now, let us concentrate the charting pattern. Based on Elliott wave theory we got a top at 7700 levels. If I draw it for target then we should get minimum of 7400 levels which can be violent in the area of 7400 to 7300. Hence, I believe that Nifty can enter in the zone of 7400-7300 before giving fresh rebound.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7530 and 7485 levels and resistance will be at 7600 and 7650 levels. There is a possibility of some higher opening. I am planning for any long trade unless some strong buy will emerge. This market is just heading to trap bulls at higher levels and so one has to be cautious. Remember, if it is trapping bulls at high then so it is trapping bears at low.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7590 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Technical charts are suggesting for fresh long only if it can surpass 7625 levels with volume. Do not carry away from higher opening. In fact, we may not see 7600 levels sustaining. Even if it sustain then also keep your eye open to trade. Market will be highly volatile from now to union budget.  

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P bounced on Fed comment over economy. WoW!!! It hit 1956 again. Consistent trade above 1956 will give levels of 1970-1980 with big negative divergence. Fed chairperson said that economy is improving as they trimmed bond purchase. It may be true but I am not able to digest. Bond purchase trimming may not have anything to do with growth of economy. Economy always improves by its own. Factors may just support for little. Let us see if S&P sustain. I doubt!!!

18 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: What a bounce yesterday!!! Now plan to trade long only if Nifty can able to sustain above 7650 levels. If not, then we can again see a move towards 7480.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 June 2014: -

On 17 June 2014, FII Bought INR 48.02 crs and DII Sold INR 236.89 crs

It has a gap up on 6^th June 2014. Subsequently, the high point of 5^th June 2014 has turned a support which was 7484.70; hence I said yesterday to short only below 7485. Take a note that on Monday’s trading, it has just tested 7487.55 as a low. This turned a prime reason for me to pick long trade yesterday and what a bounce we got!!! Well, major part of that bounce was short covering by weak bears and irritated bears.

I draw a resistance line on hourly chart as shown in figure. This is key resistance line. If we start trading above this line then only one can plan to trade fresh long. So, higher breakout point will be 7650. Remember, if Nifty fails at 7650 then we will see a fresh dip again and it is needful to say that the target will near to 7400 in that case. So, most part of my study remains same. This kind of bounce need to come and bound to come.

Now, let us concentrate the charting pattern. Based on Elliott wave theory we got a top at 7700 levels. If I draw it for target then we should get minimum of 7400 levels which can be violent in the area of 7400 to 7300. Hence, I believe that Nifty can enter in the zone of 7400-7300 before giving fresh rebound.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7600 levels and resistance will be at 7650 levels. I will plan to trade fresh long only if I get clear signal above 7650. We have 100 points of gain on Nifty future yesterday. Key support will be again at 7560-7570 levels. Take a note; I am not saying that fall is over as long as it is below 7650 on closing basis.  

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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7650 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Technical charts are suggesting for fresh long only if it can surpass 7670 levels with volume so we may not get buy signal in initial minutes. Key question is can I count 90 minutes of rise which came yesterday. I am again saying, ‘Be cautious at higher levels’. Do not add fresh long without decisive crossover.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P has technical resistance at 1945 levels and it has respected resistance in bounce so far. I was expecting this bounce before giving a fresh sell signal. My expectation is to see double top with second top lower than the first one. It is very likely to see a drop from 1945 by today itself. Let us see if it comes. In the downside, confirmation point will be a close below 1926 which should come by this week of trade.  

17 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: As long as Nifty is below 7560, we can expect this fall to continue. Add fresh short only if it breaks 7485 levels. No intraday rebound can sustain so avoid long specially in mid cap and small cap stocks.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 June 2014: -

On 13 June 2014, FII Bought INR 1099.92 crs and DII Bought INR 358.71 crs

WPI May inflation came at 6.01% versus 5.30% on the previous month. It came due to costlier food items. Remember that we have a strong possibility of deficit monsoon this time and situation could be more troubling for inflation. So, we cannot expect sooner rate cut. As of now, there is no chance for rate cut for at least three to five months’ time.  

Now, let us concentrate the charting pattern. Based on Elliott wave theory we got a top at 7700 levels. If I draw it for target then we should get minimum of 7400 levels which can be violent in the area of 7400 to 7300. Hence, I believe that Nifty can enter in the zone of 7400-7300 before giving fresh rebound.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7485 and then at 7410 levels. Remember, we are already below 7560 which was a reversal point. As long as we are below 7560 we can expect this dip to continue. We can expect at least 100 points fall from here also. Well, I have a view that fresh short should be added only if Nifty breaks below 7485 levels.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7550 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Technical charts are suggesting for support at 7510 levels after opening. If it breaks and sustain below 7510 then we can see immediate drag of 40-50 points. On higher side 7580 and 7590 will act as tough resistance. I still believe that Elliott wave reversal will give us levels of 7400 or below.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P has support at 1927 which was mentioned on last week too. It hit a low at 1926 and rebounded to a little. This rebound is just to make exit for smart bulls. This rebound will end sooner and a nasty sell off will start by this week itself. It may try to form a double top with second top lower than the first one. So the key level will be 1926. Break of 1926 will confirm for a sell off. Technical resistances are 1945 and 1956. 

13 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Decisive move has yet to come. Zone of 7700 to 7560 will just offer consolidation not a direction. Can weekend trade give any clue?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 June 2014: -

On 12 June 2014, FII Bought INR 652.35 crs and DII Sold INR 742.21 crs

After market we got IIP data for April month which came at 3.40 % and May CPI inflation came at 8.28 %.  After such a sharp rally I do not think that market can get any big cheer based on these good numbers but it can definitely save from any gap down. Elliott wave theory is still suggesting that 7700 should remain an intermediate top.

I consider that 7570-7560 zone will play a decisive role for trend reversal. What I mean to say is that only if we close below 7560 then only we can say that trend is reversing for next wave. Equally, it does not mean for end of rally as long term trend remains intact and Nifty has potential to hit 8000 levels.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7630 and then at 7590 levels. Remember, a reversal point for this rally will be at 7560. It should come in a day or two. First sign of this kind of profit taking will be if small cap and mid cap indices shows relative weakness than Nifty. Rise will face resistance at 7680 < 7700 < 7720 levels.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7660-7670 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Technical charts are suggesting for support at 7630 levels after opening. If it breaks and sustain below 7600 then we can see immediate drag of 40-50 points. On higher side 7690 and 7715 will act as tough resistance. I still believe that Elliott wave reversal point on Nifty June future will be 7570 levels. Close below 7570 will give big dip.

S&P 500 (USA) – It looks like bears got their opening as closing came at 1930. I would be happy if closing would have come below 1930. So, as of now charts are still on hold. Today’s session will be decisive. I still believe that 1956 will remain a top for short to medium term. If S&P goes below 1930-1927 zones then we can expect a dip towards 1903-1900 very quickly. On higher side 1940 and 1956 will be decisive resistance. 

12 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Key support will be at 7560, break will confirm the reversal. Let us see if it breaks today or not. Never long below 7560, we may see 200-300 wash out fall.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 June 2014: -

On 10 June 2014, FII Bought INR 682.26 crs and DII Sold INR 1215.47 crs

It was already quoted for yesterday that we may have a top formation from 7680 or 7700 or 7720. We eventually got the top at 7700 levels. After hitting a top at 7700 on dot we saw intraday dip. In my view, Nifty is still above threshold of 7560 levels. As long as it is above 7560 we can expect this support to work. Trend will reverse once it break below 7560 which is likely to happen in coming days.

I consider that 7570-7560 zone will play a decisive role for trend reversal. What I mean to say is that only if we close below 7560 then only we can say that trend is reversing for next wave. Equally, it does not mean for end of rally as long term trend remains intact and Nifty has potential to hit 8000 levels.

So far, what I see is that Nifty can come in the range of 7400 to 7300 and then only a next up move will start near budget session. Well, one need to remember that next wave of rally will depend on budget take. We have IIP data coming this evening. Market will keep its eye on monsoon progress which is not yet good. It is important to note that most important short term booster decision for economy is ‘cut in bank rate’. This factor largely depends on how monsoon progress.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7590 and then at 7560 levels. Remember, a reversal point for this rally will be at 7560. It should come in a day or two. First sign of this kind of profit taking will be if small cap and mid cap indices shows relative weakness than Nifty. Rise will face resistance at 7680 < 7700 < 7720 levels.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7620 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Technical charts are suggesting for support at 7600 levels after opening. If it breaks and sustain below 7600 then we can see immediate drag of 40-50 points. On higher side 7670 and 7715 will act as tough resistance. I still believe that Elliott wave reversal point on Nifty June future will be 7570 levels. Close below 7570 will give big dip.

S&P 500 (USA) – We have higher possibility that 1956 will remain a top. I still feel the need of close below 1930 to say for confirmation about upcoming dip. Let me clear it little more – a dip if starts from 1956 will have a target at 1800-1770 zone. Rest can be easily concluded. Better short signal will emerge at close below 1930. Let us see, it can come in a day or two. 

11 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty formed ‘Hanging man pattern’ on daily chart. I still say, we are in the process of short term top formation. Key support will be at 7560, break will confirm the reversal.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 June 2014: -

On 10 June 2014, FII Bought INR 682.26 crs and DII Sold INR 1215.47 crs

Let us keep all news at one side and focus on charting formation. It is hanging man pattern on daily chart which is a bearish formation. I have already said yesterday that Elliott wave is suggesting for a top formation in the range of 7680 > 7700 > 7720. We saw a top at 7683 and a drop. After that we saw intraday bounce but that failed to level with opening quotes.

I consider that 7570-7560 zone will play a decisive role for trend reversal. What I mean to say is that only if we close below 7560 then only we can say that trend is reversing for next wave. Equally, it does not mean for end of rally as long term trend remains intact and Nifty has potential to hit 8000 levels.

So far, what I see is that Nifty can come in the range of 7400 to 7300 and then only a next up move will start near budget session. Well, one need to remember that next wave of rally will depend on budget take. Will market men like or dislike. Too much of optimism is always bad. Monsoon is bigger threat for newly formed current government. Let me explain you how. Take a simple calculation – 1% deficit in rain drop will cost 0.35% deficit in GDP. So, just calculate if we get over all 7% deficit in rain fall. Do not worry, blue channel will not tell you this truth.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7640 and then at 7560 levels. Remember, a reversal point for this rally will be at 7560. It should come in a day or two. First sign of this kind of profit taking will be if small cap and mid cap indices shows relative weakness than Nifty. Rise will face resistance at 7680 < 7700 < 7720 levels.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7670 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Technical charts are suggesting for support at 7630 levels after opening. I will not prefer buy at top. Take a note that 7690 is level to watch on higher side. Yesterday, it has failed twice. If it crosses 7690 then we can see further addition of 30-40 points in this rise. It will not be useful to short unless it breaks 7630. My study remains same as of yesterday. Let us see if we get the magic of hanging man pattern.

S&P 500 (USA) – Most of conclusion remains same. S&P closed just above 1950 levels. It does not matter even if we are at life time high levels which are usually bullish sign. Technical charts are saying for support at 1930 as of now. I am just waiting for some strong sign for summer sell off which is bound to come. Below 1930 will be my first sign for short. Short only if desired signal comes. What we need? Just one big red day this looks sooner to come. Remember, fall can be more rapid than rise

10 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A short term top may come at 7680 < 7700 < 7720 levels. Reversal point for this rally will be at 7560 levels which is still little far from current levels. Do not buy in toppy zone.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 10 June 2014: -

On 09 June 2014, FII Bought INR 536.68 crs and DII Sold INR 490.03 crs

We saw another life time high close on government’s reform agenda. Market has welcomed those expected steps. Well, but it seems that poor monsoon is going to be first battle field of this government. Progress of monsoon is not going as expected. Government is planning for their action in undesirable conditions regarding inflation.

Basic of technical analysis says that trend once established is likely to continue than to reverse. This up trend is coming from 6638 levels and stretched a lot. My expectation is that it can come near to 7700 also. Caution is advised for sure at these levels especially mid cap and small cap stocks. Many stocks of small cap and mid cap indices are rising dangerously. I still believe that market cannot stretch far beyond 7700 without price correction.

Even if correction comes, this up trend will not break as it has already generated a pattern which is not easy to break in normal case. My short term view is that we may see correction towards 7400-7300 and then again budget rally may start to give Nifty in the zone of 7900 to 8000 levels.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7640 and then at 7560 levels. Remember, a reversal point for this rally will be at 7560. It should come in a day or two. First sign of this kind of profit taking will be if small cap and mid cap indices shows relative weakness than Nifty. Rise will face resistance at 7680 < 7700 < 7720 levels.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7670 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Technical charts are suggesting for support at 7630 levels after opening. I will not prefer buy at top. Take a note that 7690 is level to watch on higher side. Yesterday, it has failed twice. If it crosses 7690 then we can see further addition of 30-40 points in this rise. It will not be useful to short unless it breaks 7630.  

S&P 500 (USA) – Most of conclusion remains same. S&P closed just above 1950 levels. It does not matter even if we are at life time high levels which are usually bullish sign. Technical charts are saying for support at 1930 as of now. I am just waiting for some strong sign for summer sell off which is bound to come. Below 1930 will be my first sign for short. Short only if desired signal comes. What we need? Just one big red day this looks sooner to come. Remember, fall can be more rapid than rise. 

09 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: As long as Nifty is above 7560 we can hope for more rise. A move towards 7700 is also a possibility by early this week. Do not buy in volatile top if comes.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 09 June 2014: -

On 06 June 2014, FII Bought INR 1283.04 crs and DII Sold INR 315.15 crs

It goes at life time high close on Friday with rapid short covering in last hour of trade. This shows that more steam has left in the market. A life time high is itself a big sign of bullishness. There are negative divergences on many momentum technical indicators but those have lesser value. Right now, money flow and momentum is on governing state. I am saying about momentum as small cap and mid cap indices are still rising with rapid pace.

Basic of technical analysis says that trend once established is likely to continue than to reverse. This up trend is coming from 6638 levels and stretched a lot. My expectation is that it can come near to 7700 also. Caution is advised for sure at these levels especially mid cap and small cap stocks. Many stocks of small cap and mid cap indices are rising dangerously.

One need to note that market is preparing itself for upcoming union budget. Hopes are really big and so far current NDA government is justifying those hopes. To a great extent, we need to accept that we will see another hope rally till budget which will come next month. Even if correction comes, that will not last longer

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7560 and then at 7504 levels. Higher opening will leave this market clueless to deal but prefer to wait for initial hour to conclude for trend. As long as it is above 7560, we can expect more rise.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7630 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Technical charts are suggesting for support at 7590 levels after opening. I will not prefer buy at top. I can opt to trade long for intraday if dip comes and it saves 7580-7570 levels. At some point, top is going to be extremely volatile. One need to stay away from those wild top if comes.

S&P 500 (USA) – Well, 1950 is on for S&P. COEB volatility index VIX is below 11. It is now at 10.73. This is already hinting that rise is going to be very limited from here. It does not matter even if we are at life time high levels which are usually bullish sign. Technical charts are saying for support at 1930 as of now. I am just waiting for some strong sign for summer sell off which is bound to come. Below 1930 will be my first sign for short. Short only if desired signal comes. 

06 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: In spite of gradual resistance, Nifty may move 40-50-60 points more before correcting. As long as it holds 7450, we have no reason to expect profit taking. Technical resistance – 7505-7563!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 06 June 2014: -

On 05 June 2014, FII Bought INR 1368.97 crs and DII Sold INR 425.79 crs

FIIs bought heavily in cash market in past few days. Yesterday they are net seller on index future with amount INR 889 crs. Does this indicate that they are shorting now? Well, I never try to conclude much about price based on money flow. Money flow is always stronger and it is related to economy view. What pays us in stock market is only ‘price’.

I have quoted for resistance above 7450. We are in same zone and it has attracted short covering to some extent. Big fight will begin today. We need to note a factor very strongly that new government is in action. They are taking few decisions which have propelled bulls in the market. This will be encouraging factor for long term.

Small cap and mid cap indices are still performer of the market. There are many stocks in this pack which are moving without any great base. Investors must be very cautious on selection of stocks. If you are trader or investor, you may be tempted and it is also true that those odd stocks give quick money.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7450 and then at 7400 levels. On higher side, it will face resistance at 7505+ levels. There will be a day when mid cap and small cap indices will underperform Nifty.  Once, under performance of mid cap and small cap starts then we may conclude for top.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7530 levels. Good part is that it has pushed bears back and marched ahead. For today’s trading majority of moves will eat by gap up. It does not matter if it comes small or big. If I have a choice then it is a buy above 7490 for 40-50-60 points move on higher side. Top will be dangerous and no one knows where it is.

S&P 500 (USA) – It has closed stronger than ever with intraday rebound of 18 points. I still believe that top is near and it is just the matter of time.  Sell off can begin any moment now. Sooner near to 1950, we will see a top formation. We saw many technical indicators which are giving indications for price correction. Be on the side line and prefer to wait for a top to emerge. Technical support for the day is at 1935 and then 1922. Is market going to miss summer sell off? 

05 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Technical resistance will be at 7450+ levels. We may see dull trading activity. Small cap and mid cap indices are alarming but rise may continue.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 05 June 2014: -

On 04 June 2014, FII Bought INR 192.56 crs and DII Sold INR 191.68 crs

It was dull day yesterday on Indian indices. Where is Nifty right now on chart? Join two tops, on at 7563.50 and 7504 then extend the trend line. This is decisive supply line and reactions may be reversing in nature. Technical support will emerge at 7370 levels which will also be a threshold for selling. We are currently seems to be in triangle consolidation with contraction. I am concluding this based on hourly chart. Please refer to the image shown.

I have quoted few days back also that Nifty will face resistance at 7450+ levels even after crossing 7400 levels. So far, things are almost same. There is no moving average support or resistance near current levels. This is something which can trouble market if it turns volatile anytime.

Small cap and mid cap indices are still performer of the market. There are many stocks in this pack which are moving without any great base. Investors must be very cautious on selection of stocks.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7370 and then at 7340 levels. On higher side, it will face resistance at 7450+ levels. There will be a day when mid cap and small cap indices will underperform Nifty.  Once, under performance of mid cap and small cap starts then we may conclude for top.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7410 levels. It will be better to stay away from trading till clarity. It may be another dull day as long as it hold 7370 and stay below 7450. There is no great clue for trading. Wave patterns are suggesting that we may see some topping pattern but those will confirm only below 7370.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P is inching slowly towards 1930 levels. I still believe that it may over shoot by some points. So far, bulls have full control over the market and support threshold is far away. As long as it holds 1900-1903, we can see extension. We may have trading support at 1918-1915 levels. My anticipation is that we are near to top but still not on exact top. Wait for at least first signal of brutal slip. 

03 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: RBI policy to govern the trading direction. Stiff technical resistance is expected at 7400 and then at 7450+ levels. Do not buy at higher levels as market may slip again from high.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 03 June 2014: -

On 02 June 2014, FII Bought INR 2977.62 crs and DII Sold INR 148.81 crs

We saw one sided gain in all indices yesterday. We have RBI monetary policy today. To be on fair side it will be very unfair to expect rate cut. We need to note that monsoon forecast is ‘below normal for this year which is looking correct so far. This can add fuel to inflation and it will give tough time to RBI governor. It is only the Modi magic which makes people optimistic.

I am little uneasy with Nifty hourly chart. This rally may be on halt either at 7400 or near to 7450+ levels. Well, it may still have scope to move higher but this rise may not sustain. So, what market is expecting and what it is going to get will have lot of difference.

According to Elliott wave theory on hourly chart, Nifty is in trending wave ‘C’ which is a part of corrective full wave. So we are in wave ‘C’ from 7504 and we have already travelled a distance of nearly 200 points. Logically end point of wave ‘A’ need to be broken. End point of wave ‘A’ is at 7130. This is prime reason that I try to be reserve from buying on rise although stock specific moves are coming to catch for good.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7325 and then at 7300 levels. On higher side, it will face resistance at 7400 levels first and then at 7450+ levels. We may have impulsive rise or fall near 11 am depending on RBI announcement. Mid cap and small cap indices are moving rapidly and dangerously.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7390-7400 levels. It will be better to stay away from trading on index till RBI policy comes. I feel that we will see some heavy resistance and profit taking from higher levels after RBI policy. Technical support will be at 7330 levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P had a boring trading day yesterday. It has closed at 1925 which is just in striking distance from expected 1930 levels. First hint for top formation is coming from AAPL stock which hit a high at 644 day before yesterday and closed in red for two days in a row. It is suggesting me that top is near. Perhaps top will come at very close to 1930, it may violate by few points but it cannot be far away from this level. 

02 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Slow and steady move is showing the expected move towards 7130. For today’s trading 7200 levels will be key. Avoid Mid cap and small cap buying.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 02 June 2014: -

On 30 May 2014, FII Bought INR 2277.62 crs and DII Sold INR 458.15 crs

We saw dip in Indian market throughout past week of trades. It is looking to extend profit taking mode for this week too. I have already suggested that I am expecting move towards 7130 at least. So far, there is no decisive attempt by bulls either. It is mid cap and small cap indices which is heading northwards. I am not interested to buy add mid cap and small cap stocks when their pace of rise goes dangerous like recent one.

Market should focus on next RBI monetary policy review which is scheduled to come tomorrow. There is no expectation any change in bank rate this time. Things are not going to be smooth for RBI especially when economy needs to face poor monsoon. So far, expectation builds over new stable government which is bigger factor.

According to Elliott wave theory on hourly chart, Nifty is in trending wave ‘C’ which is a part of corrective full wave. So we are in wave ‘C’ from 7504 and we have already travelled a distance of nearly 200 points. Logically end point of wave ‘A’ need to be broken. End point of wave ‘A’ is at 7130. This is prime reason that I try to be reserve from buying on rise although stock specific moves are coming to catch for good.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7200 and then at 7130 levels. If it stays below 7220 then we can expect this fall to continue. On higher side it will face resistance at 7300 levels now. I prefer to short this market on rise or if Nifty stay below 7200 levels.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future gas broken 7250 crucial mark. Now, logically it should take a move towards 7150 levels. It should be a strong possibility for this week of trades. To be on safer side, it will generate better short if it breaks 7220 in convincing way. On higher side 7270 to 7290 will act as stiff trading resistance.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P performed more than 1% better than Dow Jones in recent rise. I still need to keep the analysis same. As long as it is above 1900 it is looking safe for bulls. I am already expecting a top to emerge at 1930 which is very close now. It will be safer to wait for top to emerge in decisive way before shorting. It is now turning like I am missing long opportunity. As I missed the one then also I will jump on wrong one.