25 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Iraq effect can again over shadow the hope of reforms in budget. Nifty has technical resistance at 7600 and 7630. Be cautious ahead of derivative expiry.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 June 2014: -

On 24 June 2014, FII Bought INR 284.61 crs and DII Sold INR 216.17 crs

Once again oil was heavy on Wall Street in the last night trades. Dow Jones took a dip of 119 points. Indian market is little different from rest of the world due to the hope of upcoming reformed directed budget. Well, I still feel that it is not easy to ignore higher oil price as current situation is worse than a year for countries like India too.

After yesterday’s sharp rise, we have almost done with majority of pre-budget rally and Indian market will head towards global cues too. What I feel is that we may not have scope of good rise from current levels before budget or at least till derivative expiry tomorrow.

I have already quoted in past two-three days that global market can turn shaky any day and any time now. It slipped last night. If follow up selling comes today then we may see deeper cut on blue chip indices. So today’s trading will be decisive.  

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7550 and 7500 levels and resistance will be at 7600 and 7630 levels. I have not added low from lower levels yesterday and the decisive was right. Technical charts are suggesting that we may see levels of 7600+ in today’s session. In my view, higher levels will invite bears to play again. Can it break 7500 again on oil concern? Yes, but only if oil stocks slips. Indian market gets good domination by oil stocks on the talk over hike in oil price and gas price.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty June future may open near 7620-7630 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Immediate trading support will be at 7590 levels. Break below 7590 will again push bulls back and bears may take a charge. On higher side, resistance will emerge at 7650 levels. Cross above 7650 will drive new wave of rise. Chances are less for the extension of yesterday’s rise.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P closed lower by 12 points last night on Iraq concern. It is still just above 1945 levels threshold levels. It has given a desired big red candle on chart. Now, if it sustain below 1945 then we can see a decisive move towards 1920 levels. Yesterday’s high was 1968 which was closer to my suggested target of 1970. It has slipped nearly 1% from its intraday and all time high top.