25 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Iraq effect can again over shadow the hope of reforms in budget. Nifty has technical resistance at 7600 and 7630. Be cautious ahead of derivative expiry.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 25 June 2014: -
On 24 June 2014, FII Bought INR 284.61 crs and DII Sold INR
216.17 crs
Once again oil was heavy on Wall Street in the last night
trades. Dow Jones took a dip of 119 points. Indian market is little different from
rest of the world due to the hope of upcoming reformed directed budget. Well, I
still feel that it is not easy to ignore higher oil price as current situation
is worse than a year for countries like India too.
After yesterday’s sharp rise, we have almost done with
majority of pre-budget rally and Indian market will head towards global cues
too. What I feel is that we may not have scope of good rise from current levels
before budget or at least till derivative expiry tomorrow.
I have already quoted in past two-three days that global
market can turn shaky any day and any time now. It slipped last night. If follow
up selling comes today then we may see deeper cut on blue chip indices. So today’s
trading will be decisive.
For today’s trading technical support will be at 7550 and 7500
levels and resistance will be at 7600 and 7630 levels. I have not added low
from lower levels yesterday and the decisive was right. Technical charts are
suggesting that we may see levels of 7600+ in today’s session. In my view,
higher levels will invite bears to play again. Can it break 7500 again on oil
concern? Yes, but only if oil stocks slips. Indian market gets good domination by
oil stocks on the talk over hike in oil price and gas price.
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Strategy for Nifty July
future – Nifty June
future may open near 7620-7630 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Immediate
trading support will be at 7590 levels. Break below 7590 will again push bulls
back and bears may take a charge. On higher side, resistance will emerge at
7650 levels. Cross above 7650 will drive new wave of rise. Chances are less for
the extension of yesterday’s rise.
S&P 500 (USA) – S&P closed lower by 12 points last
night on Iraq concern. It is still just above 1945 levels threshold levels. It has
given a desired big red candle on chart. Now, if it sustain below 1945 then we
can see a decisive move towards 1920 levels. Yesterday’s high was 1968 which
was closer to my suggested target of 1970. It has slipped nearly 1% from its
intraday and all time high top.
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