23 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Take extreme caution ahead of derivative expiry and Iraq tension. If Nifty breaks 7485 then do not touch this market for long anymore.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.
For 23 June 2014: -



On 20 June 2014, FII Sold INR 220.65 crs and DII Bought INR 73.85 crs
NDA government is coming with new and bold step to curb economic downturn. This can give a setback to inflation front. It is unfortunate that Modi government is facing Iraq crisis at very wrong time. Overall geopolitical situation can add water over economic recovery. It can be only a summer correction mode.  
As India imports major crude oil from same region so rise in crude price will hurt it much. We have already got fare hike in Indian railway. Now, there are talks over hike in LPG price too. This can add fuel to inflation. Surely, we cannot expect sooner rate cut from RBI now.
Remember, global market can turn shaky any day and anytime. I have a clear message that if NIFTY breaks the range of 7485 to 7450 then one must prepare for bigger cut. Elliott wave is already giving us a target in the range of 7400-7300 range before budget. We are in derivative expiry week now. It is strongly advisable to avoid fuel rate sensitive stocks. Definitely I mean to avoid auto stocks.
For today’s trading technical support will be at 7510 and 7485 levels and resistance will be at 7570 and 7600 levels. I must add that from lower levels, one must wait for the break of 7485 to add fresh short. Else it will be better to short from higher levels, near to 7600 to add short.
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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7540-7550 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Immediate trading support will be at 7510 levels. Break below 7510 will cause the fall of immediate 40-50 points. On higher side 7580 to 7610 will be zone of stiff resistance. It seems that we stuck in the side wise direction now. This will not remain side wise if it breaks 7500. My technical study remains same as of Friday.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P is very likely to hit 1970-1980 levels with negative divergence. As long as this is rising, bulls have upper hand. As of now, as long as it is above 1950, it is likely to sail its rise towards 1970-1980 zone.  This rise may have ugly end at top. Even if one has long trade then also one need to protect long with cautious stop loss. Is psychological 2000 levels coming on S&P? If yes, then it may be euphoric top. 
I’m Praveen Kumar, a seasoned Technical Analyst and stock market trader with over 25 years of experience in the Indian equity and derivatives markets. My passion for numbers and patterns led me to a dual career as a Mathematics Teacher and market technician. I specialize in Technical Analysis, with deep expertise in Elliott Wave Theory, derivatives strategies, and market forecasting. Over the years, my analysis and market views have been featured on NDTV Profit as a financial guest, along with published articles on reputed financial web portals, sharing insights on Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, and stock market trends. As a trader and analyst, I focus on interpreting price action, chart patterns, wave counts, and technical indicators to deliver precise market levels and actionable trade ideas. My approach blends classical charting with modern analysis tools to help traders navigate market volatility. Through VieCapital, I aim to share daily market analysis, trading strategies, and educatio…
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