23 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Take extreme caution ahead of derivative expiry and Iraq tension. If Nifty breaks 7485 then do not touch this market for long anymore.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 23 June 2014: -
On 20 June 2014, FII Sold INR 220.65 crs and DII Bought INR
73.85 crs
NDA government is coming with new and bold step to curb
economic downturn. This can give a setback to inflation front. It is
unfortunate that Modi government is facing Iraq crisis at very wrong time. Overall
geopolitical situation can add water over economic recovery. It can be only a
summer correction mode.
As India imports major crude oil from same region so rise in
crude price will hurt it much. We have already got fare hike in Indian railway.
Now, there are talks over hike in LPG price too. This can add fuel to
inflation. Surely, we cannot expect sooner rate cut from RBI now.
Remember, global market can turn shaky any day and anytime. I
have a clear message that if NIFTY breaks the range of 7485 to 7450 then one
must prepare for bigger cut. Elliott wave is already giving us a target in the
range of 7400-7300 range before budget. We are in derivative expiry week now. It
is strongly advisable to avoid fuel rate sensitive stocks. Definitely I mean to
avoid auto stocks.
For today’s trading technical support will be at 7510 and
7485 levels and resistance will be at 7570 and 7600 levels. I must add that
from lower levels, one must wait for the break of 7485 to add fresh short. Else
it will be better to short from higher levels, near to 7600 to add short.
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Strategy for Nifty June
future – Nifty June
future may open near 7540-7550 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Immediate
trading support will be at 7510 levels. Break below 7510 will cause the fall of
immediate 40-50 points. On higher side 7580 to 7610 will be zone of stiff
resistance. It seems that we stuck in the side wise direction now. This will
not remain side wise if it breaks 7500. My technical study remains same as of
Friday.
S&P 500 (USA) – S&P is very likely to hit
1970-1980 levels with negative divergence. As long as this is rising, bulls
have upper hand. As of now, as long as it is above 1950, it is likely to sail
its rise towards 1970-1980 zone. This
rise may have ugly end at top. Even if one has long trade then also one need to
protect long with cautious stop loss. Is psychological 2000 levels coming on
S&P? If yes, then it may be euphoric top.
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