30 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Once again, keep an eye on two important figure for NIFTY, one is at 7485 and 7440. Bulls must give their best to save 7440 !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 June 2014: -

On 27 June 2014, FII Bought INR 182.55 crs and DII Sold INR 172.40 crs

Nifty came very close to expected support of 7485. I have already said that 7485 is a support and 7440 is a last hope for on-going consolidation. We need to make things clear for trade – if it slips below 7440 then there will some reason for panic sell off. In short, bulls need to save 7440 till budget. Current pattern is ugly as Nifty has closed below 20 DMA for second day in row. Friday’s high was on dot at 20 DMA. So 7540 may turn a decision resistance for today’s trade.

Technical charts are suggesting that if it breaks 7485-7480 levels then we can see quick fire move towards 7440. As it is a last hope support at 7440 so there is an equal chance of quick bounce from 7440 levels.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7440 and resistance will be at 7540 and 7550 levels. If it breaks 7440 then one can expect sharp selling. It may turn in to panic selling too. Believe it or not but market does not like few deferred decision by Modi’s government. Is Mr. Modi going on Manmohan ways? Just pray that it should not be like that. There are strong possibility that upcoming budget will have many populist measure.  If selling continues in gas stocks then things can be ugly. Weak monsoon will be a catalyst for weakness in market if it breaks 7440.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future should open near 7530-7540 and then immediate trading support should emerge at 7500 levels. If it sustain below 7500 then things will turn alarming. 7500 may act as last hope as ‘make or break’ levels. On higher side 7575-7580 will act as stiff trading resistance. Rock hard support will be at 7460-7470

S&P 500 (USA) – I need to repeat, as long as S&P is oscillating between 1970 to 1945 we cannot get trading direction even near all-time high. It has ended week at 1960+ which is still a positive factor. It is still not going to be easy to surpass 1970-1980 ranges. As we have not got desired ‘summer correction’ this year so market may come with something new. What that can be?