13 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Decisive move has yet to come. Zone of 7700 to 7560 will just offer consolidation not a direction. Can weekend trade give any clue?

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For 13 June 2014: -

On 12 June 2014, FII Bought INR 652.35 crs and DII Sold INR 742.21 crs

After market we got IIP data for April month which came at 3.40 % and May CPI inflation came at 8.28 %.  After such a sharp rally I do not think that market can get any big cheer based on these good numbers but it can definitely save from any gap down. Elliott wave theory is still suggesting that 7700 should remain an intermediate top.

I consider that 7570-7560 zone will play a decisive role for trend reversal. What I mean to say is that only if we close below 7560 then only we can say that trend is reversing for next wave. Equally, it does not mean for end of rally as long term trend remains intact and Nifty has potential to hit 8000 levels.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7630 and then at 7590 levels. Remember, a reversal point for this rally will be at 7560. It should come in a day or two. First sign of this kind of profit taking will be if small cap and mid cap indices shows relative weakness than Nifty. Rise will face resistance at 7680 < 7700 < 7720 levels.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7660-7670 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Technical charts are suggesting for support at 7630 levels after opening. If it breaks and sustain below 7600 then we can see immediate drag of 40-50 points. On higher side 7690 and 7715 will act as tough resistance. I still believe that Elliott wave reversal point on Nifty June future will be 7570 levels. Close below 7570 will give big dip.

S&P 500 (USA) – It looks like bears got their opening as closing came at 1930. I would be happy if closing would have come below 1930. So, as of now charts are still on hold. Today’s session will be decisive. I still believe that 1956 will remain a top for short to medium term. If S&P goes below 1930-1927 zones then we can expect a dip towards 1903-1900 very quickly. On higher side 1940 and 1956 will be decisive resistance.