24 June 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Indian market is under Hindenburg effect with Iraq crisis on derivative expiry week. Short is still a call but add fresh short only below 7445!!! (As explained on weekly chart yesterday)

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 24 June 2014: -

On 23 June 2014, FII Sold INR 214.49 crs and DII Bought INR 117.43 crs

Rail budget is expected on 8^th July followed by economic survey report on 9^th July and then we will get union budget on 10^th July 2014. Indian market will take a sharp before the budget to make a room to react. It is likely to expect that market may remain in the range of 150-200 points till budget now.

I need to say that Narendra Modi’s government is going to present its union budget at unfortunate time with unlimited challenges. He has to face the contraction growth and higher inflation in India and the impact that are coming from unstable Iraq. It is going to be very tough to match with this kind of add timing.

Remember, global market can turn shaky any day and anytime. I have a clear message that if NIFTY breaks the range of 7485 to 7450 then one must prepare for bigger cut. Elliott wave is already giving us a target in the range of 7400-7300 range before budget. We have already seen a low at 7441 yesterday and a bounce came in last 30 minutes. It is giving the importance of 7450 levels. 

Another noticeable charting development is that 20 DMA after 8^th May 2014. It must have its own value.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7480 and 7440 levels and resistance will be at 7530 and 7570 levels. I must add that from lower levels, one must wait for the break of 7440 to add fresh short. Else it will be better to short from higher levels, near to 7570 to add short. Once it breaks below 7440 then we can see all around intraday selling.  

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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty June future may open near 7510-7520 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Immediate trading support will be at 7490 levels. Break below 7500 will cause the fall of immediate 30-40 points and a test of 7460. On higher side 7550 to 7570 will be zone of stiff resistance. It seems that we stuck in the side wise direction now. It may see more volatility near to derivative expiry.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P gave a dull trade after marginal negative. Take a note that only a dull trade cannot be sign of top. It may be just odd pause before 1970-1980 top. I still believe that euphoric top can be ugly one but nothing can be ugly unless it closes below 1945 at least and S&P is way too far from that conclusion.  Still, I can issue word of caution to avoid long or protect long with suitable stops.