28 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Once again, we need to hope for some revival in the range of 5250 to 5200. Many stocks are giving valuations to but who will be first buyer and when? INR to hit 67.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 August 2013: -

On 27 August 2013, FII Sold INR 1373.99 crs and DII Bought INR 480.50 crs

US market and EU market slipped on the fear of possible US attack on Seria. This fear is dominating global sentiments right now. Indian market is already struggling from many other fears too. Even small selling can push Indian market lower. We saw Indian rupee at 66.30 levels after ‘food security bill’ get passed in parliament.  

So far, there is no hope for Indian rupee. It is getting weaker day by day and impact is adverse on long term bond yield. I can strongly quote that nation is paying for ‘policy error’ committed by policy makers. This policy error is the result of political ambitions and political mistakes. It must be frustrating Indian investors too. I strongly hope that this kind of brainless policy making will continue for longer time. We have election next year in May month. Only God knows what kind of damage can come till that time.

International market is showing that we should prepare our self for 67 on Indian Rupee against US dollar. True, now we do not “Bharat Nirman”, we need “Bharat Punarnirman”.

Technical charts are giving hope for 2-3 days and then washed out with one single gap down and fall. So far, Nifty is likely to test 5250 levels again and support can emerge at 5200 marks. I am strongly quoting that technical has lesser value in panic fall.  

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty August future – It is going to see another dip opening. For whole August month, we got only GAP opening. 30% were higher opening and 70% were lower opening. Let us see if it can react for some reversal from 5220-5200 levels. It is not easy to deal. Wait for first hour bottom to conclude. Higher weightage of banking stocks in NIFTY is giving more pain.

S&P 500 – I said yesterday that it is forming structure for weakness but I was not aware about this kind of reason for weakness. Technical charts are saying for some pause at 1624 to 1630 levels before fresh sell off.  It does not matter if US attack on Seria or not but I will prefer to book short at 1624-1620 levels. A break below 1620 will give 1600-1598 as short term bottom.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar