22 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Post fed minutes, INR likely to open well beyond 65. Nifty is likely to open in the range of 5250-5200 levels. Better to be in wait and watch mode.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 August 2013: -

On 21 August 2013, FII Sold INR 792.11 crs and DII Bought INR 775.45 crs

Nifty almost got 250 points of fall yesterday from its top. This kind of formation is really very troubling as it might be a sign of ‘no immediate recovery’. Even last 500 points of fall came without even single positive close. I was assuming yesterday that we will see some 1-2-3 days of recovery but I was definitely shocked with the fall.

It is looking like even fed minutes will also come and go kind of event without any impression. It is butchered sentiment which is doing big damage to stock price in India. Indian financial market is paying its price for its hopeless and paralyzed policy makers and now it is not a new sentence.

With today’s morning, be ready to see Indian rupee hitting 65.00-65.30 against US dollar. This might be looking overdone but there are no signs of pause. Bond yield and forex markets are moving like mid cap stocks.

US fed minutes were looking as non-event but it is giving a sense that tapering is a done deal. Although, fed is not saying when will they do that. It is fair to say that Barnanke bubble is busting in emerging economies. How tough will this be to handle? We are already experiencing in forex as well as stock market.  

Technical charts are still down and not giving any hopes. In fact, whenever it gave hope during intraday session, it got sold at higher. It is likely to test 5250-5200 marks today but those will be another gap down.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading with a loss of 80 points. It is giving opening in the range of 5250-5200 levels. In panic technical supports has no great relevance. If recovery has to come then it has to be decided by best market analyst. I always believe that market itself is best market analyst.

S&P 500 – Break below 1640 will be a cause of concern. It can be taken as a sign that recovery has denied. This is first time that US market has denied the opportunity of recovery. If trades sustain below 1640 then next logical target will emerge only at 1616 to 1600 levels. It is looking like selling is about to continue. Slowly, whole world is moving in India way.     

Regards,

Praveen Kumar