13 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty may take a pause today but it is now still not giving sign of stability. Expect trading support to emerge at 5580 levels. Any further break will again push on panic mode.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 August 2013: -

On 12 August 2013, FII Bought INR 408.36 crs and DII Bought INR 258.81 crs

We got a bad result by SBIN. IIP contracted by 2.20% in the month of July. CPI came at 9.64%. This is showing the bleeding fundamental of Indian economy. I am not expecting sooner improvement. It is showing that one should expect more painful growth data.  

What can be worse than this quarter’s number by Indian corporate? Time has come that RBI should give up its concern over Indian rupee which is still weaker and almost near its all-time low. Now, there is no possible short term solution. Any steps to curb rupee weakness will just hurt growth while rupee will be unstoppable. It is just like the inflation shoot up from 2008 onwards. I am expecting a 1 USD = INR 62 today.

Technical charts suggesting for support at 5580-5584 now. I believe for a move towards support for initial hours. If it revives near support then bounce will come again. It is likely to hit levels of 5680 to 5716 in coming days but we need better confirmation pattern to emerge.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading with gain of 5 points only. I have already covered my long yesterday which I took at lower levels in past week. I still believe for a better pullback but economy data is not supportive. I may opt to buy lower levels again but I am not able to see a broader opening of higher levels. It is looking like to break lower if it sustain below 5588 levels.

S&P 500 – It has negative divergence on many crucial technical indicators and rise from this point should be limited. It is very likely to consolidate before any bigger correction to begin. The way it has rebounded from low, it is giving me a hint that there is a possibility of green day today. We can expect 1699+ levels. Let us see.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar