16 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A gap down will come to start near 5700 levels. I am expecting support at 5680 to 5649 levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 August 2013: -

On 14 August 2013, FII Bought INR 247.96 crs and DII Bought INR 249.28 crs

US market finally reacted with its technical negative divergence and slipped. Well, there is no such formation in Indian market yet as we have already seen sharp fall. We saw a shooting figure in WPI inflation which came at 5.79%. It was shocking but not unexpected. Just think what RBI and government of India handled so far. Inflation or Rupee or CAD? They failed on all front. If Nifty is at 5700 even after such massive failure then we should give credit goes to market man. I can still say that this is the phase of hopeless phase of economic fundamentals.

Technical charting and Elliott wave set up is completely different. Refer to the chart. Most important band has range from 5649 to 5809. I am expecting oscillation in this range only. A bounce form 5486 should be named as ‘recovery’ only as long as it is below 5800-5820 levels. ‘Death crossover’ will have its own significance.  

A gap down is likely after fear of partial rollback of QE in USA. US market slipped by 3% in past two trading sessions. Even after gap down, we will get technical support at 5680 first and then at 5649 levels. I will expect intraday rebound again from lower opening.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading will fall of almost 40 points. Now it is at 5707 levels. Expect technical support at 5680-5670 levels immediately. There is no great deal for shorting after opening. It may have potential to surprise you with a bounce. When global market were rising, Nifty were on fall. Now when global market is on fall, Nifty is giving relative strength.

S&P 500 – It was a brutal break of support and then a fall. Fear of partial rollback of QE is back again. Now, 1680 will act as resistance. It seems that this pullback will convert into weakness and it may have longer life than expected. As of now, S&P 500 will get support 1640 now but I cannot deny possibility of further break. I am expecting a green day to misguide trend.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar