21 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A big bounce is on the card after RBI fresh and correct moves. Nifty can be on the test of 5500 levels today. Bank Nifty to dominate. “White Wednesday”.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 August 2013: -

On 20 August 2013, FII Sold INR 1424.32 crs and DII Bought INR 1066.15 crs

I was unable to under RBI’s moves in recent past weeks. I was worried about bond yield, not depreciating rupee. Instead of squeezing money (monetary tightening) from the system, the central bank announced to conduct an open market operation (OMO) to purchase (not sell) government bonds of Rs 8,000 crore from the market on August 23, 2013.  

I say, “der aaye, durust aaye”. RBI is already late for this step but still it can be tonic for banking stocks. Market is likely to take gap up. I have a strong warning; do not short this market at higher levels too. Nifty is not likely to cool off.

I took long day before yesterday and hold my nerve yesterday. We took long on telecom and steel stocks but not yet traded banks. I am sure that most banks will open higher by 5-7% today. I will still prefer to buy only. Take a note that banking stocks can gain as high as 15% too.

Once again, after mammoth gap up technical will have less value. Still charts are suggesting for move towards 5500. I am even more bullish, I am expecting 5600 too in recovery.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading with a gain of 80 points. I am expecting even bigger opening. I will not surprise if Nifty August future open at 5480. Cross over of 5480 will give us 5550-5600 levels. There is nothing more to analyze. It is going to be clear cut buy but you have a edge if you would have taken long yesterday or before.   

S&P 500 – It recovered as road map suggested by me. It has saved 1640 levels and closed above 1650. I hope for a move towards 1670-1675. One should expect good trading support in the range of 1645 to 1640 levels. Suppose, if it sustain above 1675 in recovery then it may again shock bears. This is something which is beyond limit of technical right now. Let us see the rise first.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar