20 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: More damaging signals are coming for Indian rupee. Pray for NIFTY to hold 5360, if breaks then further round of sell off will begin.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 August 2013: -

On 19 August 2013, FII Sold INR 680.08 crs and DII Bought INR 372.65 crs

India VIX hit a high at 26.99. It is itself reflecting the panic which is growing over Indian market in recent days. It is a sort of ‘Indian financial crisis’. In spite of all efforts by RBI and Government of India, Indian rupee hit 63.25 yesterday against US dollar. It is unfortunate time as NSEL payment crisis also hit at the same time. Payment settlement to begin from today and market will look for its development.

In my view, RBI is rigid on wrong ways and nation is paying price for the same. They must instruct oil producers to buy dollar from any fixed banks rather than buying in open market. This will take out at least ‘intraday volatility’. If you are not aware then I must inform that previously oil producers were not buying dollar from open market. Do something to bring dollar rather than squeezing rupee form market.  

From last week of July, I was getting a hint based on charts and overseas positions that Rupee can hit 65. Now, those fears are turning to reality. All such targets are coming so faster that it is not giving time to adjust. Massive hit came even on 10 year bond yield which shoot up above 9 now.

After such massive developments, technical charts are losing value. Fair charts are suggesting that break below 5360 will give us 5250-5200 levels too. Indian rupee may hit 63.60 to 64.00 by today itself in opening trades. You can expect stability in the zone of 65.00-65.30. I will not surprise if it open at 64 itself. There are some traders who believe for 70 by Diwali. Only god can save now.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading with a fall of 40 points, right now at 5370. It is giving easy fall now days. Indian rupee has seen massive weakness in US market last night. This has pushed SGX Nifty lower. Charts says that break below 5360 will give us 5250-5200 levels. Technical has to go wrong for any revival or reversal.  

S&P 500 – It came very close to 1640 levels. So far, S&P 500 has corrected by 65 points from its recent top. Now market is eyeing on fed decision over tapering. Now, I am expecting a trading rebound either from 1640 or nearer. Charts are still saying for weakness. If it breaks 1640 without any rebound then we can expect further dip towards 1624. I feel that a rebound is coming from 1640 for a move towards 1665-1670.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar