06 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: My target of 8800 has done that a possible is about to hit. Do not trade long.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 06 October 2016: -
On 05 October 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 243.000 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 349.86 Crs
In my online update yesterday we quoted for a possible top hint. I was
looking for 8800 on nifty and I think that we got that. In that way we got a
simple resistance above 8800. It was well away from higher levels and that’s suggesting
me for a possible dip today. I must say that this sell signal is not so firm
yet hence I am not very active. I am lightly active on short side.
I have already said for an Elliott wave based sell to emerge from 8800
to 8840 levels. I think that I may say is as a sell sooner.
For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat
note. It will get support at 8720 after opening. If this can sustain below 8720
then we may see a generation for possible sell signal getting intensifying. In short,
higher side resistance will be at 8780-8800 and support at 8720-8700. If this
can break these 100 points of range then we can see a possible direction. Hope for
a direction today or tomorrow.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty October
future – Nifty future is likely to open around 8780 levels. On higher side
resistance will emerge at 8820-8840 levels. SGX Nifty is saying for 8800 while I
am compiling this article which I think will slip decisively before opening hours.
I have already having short from 8790 to 8800 levels let us see if this can
break the support of 8740 levels. This is what I am expecting.
BANK NIFTY – I am still
repeating that if a sell signal will come then it will come less warning just
like yesterday. It is forming a pattern of giving up. If this can sustain below
19500 then we may see a possibility towards 19200 levels. Technical sell may be
active below 19500. I have already tried for shorting yesterday and I may take
attempt today also. This index may fall more than Nifty, if fall comes.
3 comments
I am right. Sell has not yet generated in a firm way. Hence, my shorts from 8790-8800 is more speculative and less technical. I do take this kind of risk on anticipation of possible short.
Another point is why a range of 10 points? Simple, If i cannot afford approximation of 10 points then I should not be in the market.
Remember, I do book loss in my own calls. I cannot say that I am always pin point right.
Trading is not 100% science.
Regards,
Praveen Kumar