03 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: One more rise is expected before hitting a sell driven by Elliott wave signal.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 03 October 2016: -

On 30 September 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 1028.31 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1560.29 Crs

I was firm on my technical view point irrespective of all odd news flow. I am repeating again that trade according to market dynamics only. Do not get affected by INDO-PAK tension. Nothing will happen in near future. Market may fall or may rise but all will happen as per normal market movement. India’s strong step on boarder will affect economy positively only. On other hand Pakistan will prefer to stay away from any war like situation.

Technical developments on charts are suggesting that 8540-8500 may act as strong support. We saw a good trade in the last trading session. I am expecting a bounce from lower levels again. Well, one must note that this long trade opportunity wills just a reaction of quick fall which came on expiry day. Elliott wave charts are suggesting for a sell signal to emerge sooner from higher levels.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat note. I am not going to buy immediately after opening. We may see some nervousness. I may prefer to buy in dip but only if this can be nervous selling. I cannot spot any concrete levels.

One more thing, nothing is going to happen at Indo-Pak boarder in the year 2016. Do not expect anything happening sooner so this was last news and come back to work.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty October future – Nifty future is likely to open around 8660 levels. This can be an expected opening and firm levels for strength. Some weak bulls may try to give up their position. I am expecting one more rise which can give a test of 8700-8750 before any fall. Sooner or later Elliott wave sell signal will hit. It may not be easy to time the market this time.   

BANK NIFTY – Once again, I can say that as long as it is above 19200 we can expect further strength. Is it the time to say for strength? I must say that buying can be executed from levels of 19000 or nearby but that are too far away from current levels. Technical charts are suggesting that one more bounce may hit before any fall according to market dynamics.