13 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Welcome back. Nifty is likely to hit 8600 as expected from past analysis.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 13 October 2016: -
On 10 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 547.26 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 468.96 Crs
I do not prefer to take trading position on long holidays but I strongly
warned traders from long positions. I stick on my possible expectation of 8600
on Nifty. I need to issue a strong warning that Nifty may not be comfortable in
coming few weeks. I am not seeing any possibility for big rise sooner. Market
may not rise till Diwali. This is happening almost every here. So do not take
extra exposure.
I have already forecasted for a fall once market goes in full trade
mode and that will start from today. ELLIOTT wave based target may be in the
range of 8200-8000 levels. This will be applicable sooner.
For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open with big gap
down. I will prefer to trade short on rise. Big question is that will it
recover to give me opportunity to trade short? I doubt but I will wait for some
time for some price recovery. Technical support
will come at 8600 only which is 100 points down from last closing.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty October
future – I have no trade on index anywhere. I am expecting Nifty to open
down below 8700. If this happens then I will prefer to wait for some bounce to
add short. I am not levels specific right now as it is opening after two days
of holidays and it has come parallel to global indices. Do not trade long in
any case.
BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty is
likely to come below 19200 by opening minutes only and this is not a favourable
opening for me in to the trade. I want bounce to add short but call is simple
that one should trade on short side only. On higher side 19500 will be a stiff
resistance for some time. I will not
surprise to see 18800-18600 levels in coming few weeks.
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