25 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I still quote for 8740 as a crucial resistance based on my Elliott wave count.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 October 2016: -

On 24 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 325.13 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 333.26 Crs

This is tug-0f-war kind of situation at 8700 of Nifty. Technical charts are showing that this is a crucial zone but I do not have concrete sell signal in this zone. This is just my anticipation that 8700-8740 is a zone of resistance which I am quoting from past few days. A break in needed. Well, we are close to expiry and I do not prefer to be very active.

I like to see how market likes to react today. It is still my anticipation that we may see a final sell signal to act. If this comes then only I will be active on index else this may remain untradeable in my list.

I have already said that next leg of fall will be decided by the magnitude of recovery. It is a big question for the possible top. Let us see if it comes at 8700 or 8750 or at 8800.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat note as indicated by SGX nifty. I am still not very firm for a reversal technical signal but I can strongly quote that Elliott wave charts are indicating that a top is coming sooner. I am just waiting for confirmation.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty November future – From today onwards I will be active on November future contract. This will face resistance at 8900 levels. Well, levels like 8920 may also be visible but broadly this on resistance market. Put writing is suggesting that market is not like to see a fall but this can never be a guarantee. 101% be caution at higher levels if you are a bull.

BANK NIFTY – This index has surpassed 19800 also. This is making market bullish and giving a hope. Hope can see a shadow near to expiry. A possible truncation can come at 19900. It is interesting to see. Should one trade long? Well, this may not go the way it looks. It contain high amount of risk. As of now, if there is a trade then it is soft long which I will definitely avoid.