27 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Will it hit 8500???????? Do not go long at any stage now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 October 2016: -

On 26 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 1450.65 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 989.46 Crs

Today is derivative expiry and this is used to be most avoidable day for me. Well, still I have added some short yesterday on anticipation of a down expiry. Expiry is bound to be very uncertain day but I am seeing the possibility of 8500. It is hard to say if it comes today or tomorrow or next week.

I was firm on my view that a possible top should come at 8740 and we saw a higher at 8740 and then a fall. Now, if I am right then I can see a possibility of hitting 8500 levels. With that, I see a very high chance of breaking 8500 this time. I definitely like to see the closing for expiry and the kind of rollover.

For today’s trading session I am suggesting that if you want to peaceful DIWALI then just do not be bull. Do not buy anything and believe my long term view. Think, if it breaks 8600 today then we may have a chance of 8500. I will not be buyer at any cost.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty November future –November future contract has seen close below 8680 and this is definitely alarming. Firstly I like to see if this can break 8630 then I will focus on 8600. If it breaks below 8600 then I am sure that expiry will go on very lower note. May be, at the lowest point of the day. Let us see where it can end. It will be direction for next month.

BANK NIFTY – It has broken 19500 and now looking to retrace the fall towards 19200 levels. How will it fall? Will it be smooth? Well, my answer is yes. If this works then fall can be deeper below 19200 also. If it turns a black expiry then bank nifty will see more weakness and I will not be surprise to see 19000 levels. BANK NIFTY may see follow up selling.