31 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Fed comments are less dovish than expected and going like no event for Indian market. Important trading support is at 6200. If it breaks then only we can expect decisive dip. Expect volatility.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 31 October 2013: -

On 30 October 2013, FII Bought INR 1016.77 crs and DII Sold INR 550.60 crs

Above figures shows that FII has gave their best but still nifty stopping near 6250 only. Now we have derivative expiry today. Global cues are not as good as market was needed. I feared this and strongly suggested “not to buy” even on break out.

Asian markets suffered a glancing blow on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy outlook was deemed less dovish than some had wagered on, lifting both bond yields and the dollar.

I feel that fed meeting goes as no event so far for the world as reactions are very limited and expected. We are on derivative expiry day and almost on multi year high. Nifty has closed exactly at 6252 levels. Technical charts are definitely advising caution but not giving any big sell for threatening fall yet. It can emerge today but who can predict derivative expiry day. It should be extremely volatile.

What is the possibility of hitting new all-time high? Well, if it has to happen then it will happen only on Muhurat trading day. Before that, we need to see what is going to happen today and how market close for this month series. I am concluding this as we may not get any big trigger to sell in just two days.

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Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future is likely to open down a little today. It has trading support at 6220 only. Suppose if it breaks 6220-6200 ranges then only we can think for decisive dip. Well, there is no great reliability for expiry day. It depends on traders if they want to hold long or want to cover long. On higher side 6270-6280 will act as stiff trading resistance. I am repeating that if we close with even small negatives then we are very close to get new all-time high on Muhurat trading day. This will come due to euphoria. We should get a dip before that. If it comes today then it will be better.

S&P 500 (USA) – I am giving a strongest possible warning – RSI and MACD divergence is giving sell after sell. This divergence is running from 1690. Do not believe the momentum blindly.

USA got independence in the year 1776. Some coincidence as S&P 500 makes top at 1776 which can be a short term top. Equally a figure which is just very near to expected 1780. I believe that US market needs few more trading sessions to realize that they are close to tapering. There must be something more to cause a dip. Let us see today’s session. Break below 1760 should actually give hint for 1730.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

30 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Watch out for the resistance zone of 6240-6250 again. Market will get limited activity today due to fed meeting tonight.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 October 2013: -

On 29 October 2013, FII Bought INR 1103.04 crs and DII Sold INR 894.04 crs

I firmly believe that FIIs are known to buy the top heavily. We got good rise yesterday backed by better than expected RBI policy. Nifty moved higher with a hope of attempt to break 6240-6250 resistance levels.

Can it break? I can repeat the same words as of past. We cannot expect easy crossover of 6240-6250 levels. On first attempt it failed and hit 6080. It is going to be possible second attempt today. Key is that we have derivative expiry tomorrow and we will get the outcome of fed meeting which is scheduled tonight. Whatever comes from USA, it will cause gap opening tomorrow.

India VIX is below 20 again but I can strongly quite that 18.00-18.50 will be strong support. One must note that VIX chart is heavily oversold. Rise can begin anytime. In general rise of 120 points of Nifty could be taken as the sign of momentum which might have generated due to short covering before expiry.

I can still say wait for real crossover of 6240-6250. If it fails then you can get shock even today. I would be happy to see it breaking higher but cannot bet. Banks are on better side. I will definitely not going to prefer to forward trade before fed minutes as I have a bad track record of predicting the outcome.

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Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future is likely to open flat today. It has moved from 6080 to 6237 yesterday. This is such a heavy rise and must have added short covering steam. First target and resistance will be at 6270. Will it surpass? All such answer will come during trading hours. In the downside 6175 will be a support. I am expecting lesser activity today due to fed meeting tonight. Equally, this market can again slip from high.

S&P 500 (USA) – I am giving a strongest possible warning – RSI and MACD divergence is giving sell after sell. This divergence is running from 1690. Do not believe the momentum blindly.

As expected it is coming towards the range of 1780-1800. So far, so good. US market is on dream run again. Remember, I always say that US has strongest bulls of the world. One should be very cautious before shorting US market. I still believe that this rise will end up brutally very soon but still not such primary signs are coming except technical divergence. All eyes will be on Fed chairman again.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

29 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We are on “make or break” levels and “make or break” day too. Wait for RBI policy outcome. I cannot deny the possibility of 6000 in coming few days.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 October 2013: -

On 28 October 2013, FII Bought INR 636.78 crs and DII Sold INR 902.68 crs

What has done yesterday? I have quoted for 6094 as ‘not impossible even after gap up’. Nifty hit an exact low at 6094. I have already said that break will give reason for panic. Charts have chosen its set up. We are on 6094 just before RBI monetary policy. There are strong talks of hike in repo rate by 50 bps.

I can say that break below 6094 can result 6060 and then 6000 levels. On higher side it will find difficulty in crossing 6150 levels too. I am expecting silence till 11 am and market will wait for RBI Governor’s words. Market is already running on cautious note. Remember that we are now just two days away from derivative expiry.

Few days back I have said that we are on the verge of global sell off. I can see those happening in Japan but other nation has yet to join hand. US market is pausing with momentum. I can sense that globe is waiting for the outcome of fed meeting.

I cannot see any possibility of roll back of stimulus in USA sooner. Market is curious to know the possible date for rollback to happen. Let us see. No one can predict the outcome of fed minutes. I am always poor in predicting outcome of fed minutes. It always went against me so better no to do so.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future is likely to open flat today. It is going to be extremely dull till we get the outcome of RBI policy. Market has lesser hope as of now. Charts are saying that break below 6090 can give a threatening fall. I cannot deny the possibility of 6000. It can be by today or by expiry day. no higher levels can be safe to opt for buying.

S&P 500 (USA) – I am giving a strongest possible warning – RSI and MACD divergence is giving sell after sell. This divergence is running from 1690. Do not believe the momentum blindly.

It starts trading above 1760 but I cannot see any euphoria for extension of rally. All eyes go on fed minutes now which will start from tomorrow. Even though it is crossing 1760 but I am not comfortable to see for 1780-1800. True that charts are hinting for 1780-1800. I will sit on side line.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

28 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: All focus will go on RBI and FED now. Technical support for Nifty is at 6120. Expect a dull day and speculative move on RBI policy today.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 October 2013: -

On 25 October 2013, FII Bought INR 626.99 crs and DII Sold INR 497.55 crs

We are on the last week of October and on expiry week too. What this month has done so far? So far, it is up by 7% in this month series. FIIs has pushed INR 12923 crs and DII sold INR 9229 crs. Then, we have a negative close last week. Majority of FII money come at higher end.

No one can short of exit from the market exactly at top. There are some ranges which are working as topping range. I still believe that 6200-6240-6250 is going to be such range. Sell signal will intensity once we take out 6120-6094 ranges. In my view, Option data has given a hint that expiry can be in the zone of 6000-6050 levels irrespective of Global cues. Market is likely to watch for upcoming monetary policy by RBI. Chances are less for good news coming from policy. We will see the shadow of speculation today.

Right now I can see only green in global markets and we can also expect some influenced start. Then, we will see resistance at 6200 levels. It is likely to be a dull session. There are few technology stocks or almost all tech pack which can emerge to give support to the market. Rate sensitive stocks are going to see some volatility.

In all, I prefer to focus at 6120 levels. If it breaks 6120 then we can immediately expect 6094 levels. We can expect panic profit taking if it breaks 6094 levels. It is challenging but not impossible. Activity may be less for the day.

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Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future is likely to open at 6160+ levels as suggesting by SGX Nifty future. Breakdown point for Nifty October future is at 6120 only. It may try to retrace after higher opening. Technical resistance is at 6200 levels. Only a cross above 6200 will again push it towards 6240-6260 levels. I will not surprise to see a dull day today.

S&P 500 (USA) – It is back to hit 1760. This kind of closing at the high point of the day is inviting bulls. Cross above 1760 can push S&P towards 1780-1800. I am unable to read about the reason of fall but I can read the fall. I am giving a strongest possible warning – RSI and MACD divergence is giving sell after sell. This divergence is running from 1690. Do not believe the momentum blindly.

This kind of momentum can see ugly stop but pictures are not clear for those stopping point. Logically, it should be at 1760 but we may see advance. Looking like 1780 or 1800 will play a role.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

25 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I am still repeating that there cannot be easy cross of 6240 (~6250-6260) resistance mark. Possibility is growing higher for a move towards 6000. Global sell off coming.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 October 2013: -

On 24 October 2013, FII Bought INR 991.83 crs and DII Sold INR 735.40 crs

I am repeating what I said yesterday. Here it is -

((( Technical conditions has arises in a manner that first we need to focus on 6 2 4 0 . )))

Accepted that 6240 cannot be exact 6240, it can be 6230 or 6250. We saw 6252. Situation remains same. We saw another brutal intraday sell off. It is confirming my view that we should first focus on “decisive crossover of 6240-6250 levels”.

I have already quoted that we may see a top either at 6240 or 6300 or even 6350 but it cannot give you euphoric at one go. Indian traders were fashionably bearish at bottom of 5118 and then at the bottom of 5700. Now people are fashionably bullish at 6200 odd levels.

I am not saying that we should not or we cannot hit new all-time high. What I like to say is that one has to be extremely caution at these levels. This level has history of trapping bulls. It has happened in 2008 also where 6200-6300 put the last nail on bull’s cockpit. Very few were able to make come back to the market. Now, this is what I like to focus. Mass behavior shows that traders may be scared of past and may stop those levels. Take note that US market has crossed those levels of fear on DJIA and S&P 500 but not on NASDAQ.

I can read a clearer sell signal on Nikkei. I have already said for selling from Monday onwards. I should use a term  as ‘global sell off coming’.

I have also traded bullish from many months. I also want this market rising but I cannot close my eye from reality. I have a strong feeling that we will overcome from the scared past of 6300-6360 and will advance more. Can it happen now? I am not very sure. I am not even sure about the reason of fall. You can observe the formation on continuous negative divergence which is better vision on hourly chart.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future is not showing the pain of fall on closing basis but for intraday it was scary. Technical charts are still saying that if it starts trading below 6160-6150 levels then we can expect a move towards 6100 levels. 6000 can be a surprise pack but not impossible. On higher side 6240 to 6260 (now say 6270) will be tough resistance to cross. Today is the last trading day of the week. Weekly opening was at 6220. It can be negative after three weeks of rise.

S&P 500 (USA) – It closed on 1752 which is definitely not completely unexpected but I still believe that it is a sell and giving door for exit from long. One can observe 4 days chart to comprise for a possible triangle formation which is suggesting for a drop towards 1720 at least. Take a note that all shorts must be protected with stop loss above 1760. Every real coin has two faces. Cross above 1760 can push S&P towards 1780-1800. I am unable to read about the reason of fall but I can read the fall. I am giving a strongest possible warning – RSI and MACD divergence is giving sell after sell. This divergence is running from 1690. Do not believe the momentum blindly.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

24 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: You cannot ignore the important of 6240 before life time high. Will it hit life time high first or will it go back to 6000? Negative divergence is giving 6000.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 24 October 2013: -

On 23 October 2013, FII Bought INR 644.80 crs and DII Sold INR 545.54 crs

In was impact of negative divergence that we saw a dip yesterday. We saw some optimistic recovery in last hours of trades. It is giving a hint that bears are silently entering market from back door. I am still saying that 6200 will throw confusion only. I can think for a fresh life time high only if it surpasses 6240 successfully. There is no doubt that optimism will be at highest point right now as it happen every time. You ask 100 people about the possibility of new all-time high. You will get 99 positive answers.

((( Technical conditions has arises in a manner that first we need to focus on 6 2 4 0 . )))

Chinese equities hit two-week lows on Wednesday after reports emerged that top Chinese lenders, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), wrote off about $3.7 billion in bad debt for the first six months of the year.

I said earlier this week, “In short, Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, a short term top is coming. Now, it can be at 6240 or 6300 or even may be nearer to new all-time high at 6360. I would rather be very happy to see 6360. Note that I am not claiming for new all-time high, it is just my excited optimistic thought of a hardcore bull of past few weeks.” Assume, telecom stocks may see fall from today.

Remember, I have already quoted this on Monday that Japanese market may see dip fall. We saw fall of 280 points yesterday and losing 125 points today too. US blue-chip S&P 500 is falling from my quoted levels of 1760. So, we cannot say that globe is favoring for new all-time high.

For today’s trading also, use every rise to short with stop loss at 6240. I am not writing anything more in order to give whole important to 6240.  

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Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future may open on another flat opening. I hate this kind of movement. It is making impact of negative divergence. It will face resistance at 6260-6240 levels. I will not surprise if Nifty can go down as much as 6000. Do not even think about new life time high unless we go above 6240. Yes, 101% if Nifty future crosses 6240-6260 then I will also add long.

S&P 500 (USA) – Once it is making top at 1760 then we should keep view for price correction as long as it is staying below 1760. I am still retaining my views and my first possible target can be 1720-1700 zones. I still have no reasons for the upcoming fall but technical set up are suggesting that there can be something going wrong. Well, I will not break my head on reasons. It is a sell!!!

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

23 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 6240 or 6160 – Which side will it break first. We are likely to get 160 points move after this range in same side of break over. Market goes clueless now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 October 2013: -

On 22 October 2013, FII Bought INR 794.90 crs and DII Sold INR 845.30 crs

Indian market turned dead in past two trading sessions and just hovering near 6200 levels. It is neither breaking 6160 on lower side nor breaking higher above 6240. In fact two day’s range is just 6163 to 6220. We saw some rise in mid cap and small cap index. It is showing that people has shifted their focus from large cap to small cap stocks. This generally happen after big rally. In normal condition, this is a sign for the continuation of the rally.

We can be concerned only if small cap and mid cap index starts underperforming but such conditions have not arrived so far. Nifty is odd 2.50% from its all-time high while Sensex is moving more rapidly towards its all-time high.

I said earlier this week, “In short, Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, a short term top is coming. Now, it can be at 6240 or 6300 or even may be nearer to new all-time high at 6360. I would rather be very happy to see 6360. Note that I am not claiming for new all-time high, it is just my excited optimistic thought of a hardcore bull of past few weeks.”

We are on Wednesday. Let us see what is coming. We have not seen the cross of even 6240. The range of 6160 to 6240 will makes a trader more confused. Shall you short on anticipation of pullback due to negative divergence or shall you go long on momentum based on money flow? It is still a billion dollar question.

For today’s trading, keep an eye at 6160 for Nifty spot. It is likely to see a fall if breaks 6160. Technical resistance is at 6240. Let us see what is coming. I was on soft short side but I exited yesterday and turn on neutral side for fresh decision.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future may open on another flat opening. I hate this kind of movement. It can just confuse for direction. I am still considering 6240 – 6260 as stiff technical resistance. In lower side, it will get support at 6160-6170 levels. Which side will it break? It is better to go for wait and watch mode. At least I doing that.

S&P 500 (USA) – I have quoted for a move towards1760 well in advance. Look at yesterday’s high, it is 1759.33. How many have quoted this? More important question is what is coming next. One simple line, “Either it should end at 1760 or it will go to hit 1784. If it coming above 1760 then probability is higher for even 1800.” In short, US indices are on euphoric mode. I am expecting a topping formation but confirmation is still missing.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

22 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A possible DOJI arises on Nifty to give me first hint for short term top. Confirmation has yet to come today. Above 6240 – up trend intact before short term top!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 October 2013: -

On 21 October 2013, FII Bought INR 1031.79 crs and DII Sold INR 724.10 crs

This kind of FIIs buy figures is not surprising me at all. Just think, they bought so much but then also market closed with nominal gain only. I may sound extra critics for FII but this is a fact that they are known to buy tops heavily and selling bottom also heavily. Right now, technical charts are saying that we almost got a DOJI pattern on daily chart. I still need to see confirmation today. I have spotted the resistance of 6240 then 6300 and then 6360. I am not extra excited and not preferring to hold long overnight.

My spotted resistance of 6240 has not come to see a test yet. India VIX hit a low at 19.16 and closed above 20. It looks like India VIX can hit max 18.50 before moving higher. I can still state that if it breaks 18.50-18.00 then I will just expect 13-12 levels for India VIX too. In that process NIFTY can hit higher by 6600 on Nifty. Will that be the case? Well, that looks very less possibility for me.

In short, Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, a short term top is coming. Now, it can be at 6240 or 6300 or even may be nearer to new all-time high at 6360. I would rather be very happy to see 6360. Note that I am not claiming for new all-time high, it is just my excited optimistic thought of a hardcore bull of past few weeks.

I like to add some views on Japanese index Nikkei. Right now it is at 14660. This is perhaps giving most appropriate signal for upcoming dip. A global sell off is coming. I still need to wait for the break 14500 for some good confirmation.

For today’s trading, keep an eye at 6160 for Nifty spot. It is likely to see a fall if breaks 6160. Technical resistance is at 6240. Let us see what is coming.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future may open lower then what it has closed yesterday. In fact, it was last minutes short covering which has pushed it higher. I have added short on Nifty October 6200 call again. Important technical support will be only at 6180-6170 levels. If it breaks then we will see good confirmation for profit taking. On higher side 6240-6260 will be resistance. It was spotted yesterday too and we saw high at 6139.  

S&P 500 (USA) – I still have reasons to stick with my point. S&P may try to come near to 1760 but we are near to the short term top formation. Generally speaking, this is another newer high and it should have euphoria of rise but that is definitely missing. We saw another choppy trading session last night. I want at last one negative close to conclude anything. As long as it holds 1730, it may remain up but I will sit on side line only. We are either at top or very close to top. Remember – it may invite real big and brutal sell off. I have no reasons for such dip but this is my view.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

21 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We may expect all-time high but we are heading towards a correction. RSI is giving negative divergence. Do not jump with big money. Resistances – 6240 < 6300 < 6360.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 October 2013: -

On 18 October 2013, FII Bought INR 1752.98 crs and DII Sold INR 562.23 crs

It was not unexpected 6200 this time. FIIs are still pushing heavy money. I am still saying, it does not matter if top comes at 6120 or 6200 or 6300. In percentage term, it will be nominal difference. I can easily trade for intraday for those rises but money is not safe at higher levels.

RSI was at 69.06 on 19^th September when Nifty hit a top of 6142 for a fall towards 5700. Now Nifty hit a high at 6201 and still looking to advance more, value of RSI is 67.21. This is negative divergence.

India VIX came at 20. It has stronger trend line support at 18.50. I am more concerned looking on CBOE VIX which is running near 12-13. US market makes most top when CBOE hit near 12. Very soon, a short term top will emerge there and correction will begin. Equally, it looks like India VIX can hit max 18.50 before moving higher. I can still state that if it breaks 18.50-18.00 then I will just expect 13-12 levels for India VIX too. In that process NIFTY can hit higher by 6600 on Nifty. Will that be the case? Well, that looks very los possibility for me.

In short, Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, a short term coming. Now, it can be at 6240 or 6300 or even may be nearer to new all-time high at 6360. I would rather be very happy to see 6360. I traded long till Friday but not came home with long position. I am less intended to carry trades to home for few more days. Note that I am not claiming for new all-time high, it is just my excited optimistic thought of a hardcore bull of past few weeks.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future came 6224 as top on Friday. I hold my long till 6210+ but refuse to carry long on weekend. These were updated on my ‘Intraday updates’. Now, we can see advance towards 6240-6260 for intraday but a dip is very near to me. I suggest readers to visit my intraday updates as we need to see hourly chart updates. Very obviously, Nifty future can see some more upside if momentum continues. We are just odd 2.00 to 2.50% away from all-time high.   

S&P 500 (USA) – I was expecting 1742 but it has surpassed those and came at 1745. It is uncharted territory so it cannot be easy to spot out with exact levels. Now, technical analysis cannot bind you in levels. It is giving a view. A view which is saying me, “Stop doing long” as it can see crash anytime. 1760 is a possibility before top but I will sit sideline. I have “no single reason” to say for a dip in stock market but charts are saying so. Reasons will come later on. CBOE is running at 12-13. Convert all your stocks to cash. I am running with long on Gold and this will be my only long deal.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

18 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Technical resistance will be in the zone of 6100-6120 levels. We may see pullback again after some moderate gap up after new all-time high on S&P 500.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 October 2013: -

On 17 October 2013, FII Bought INR 1109.93 crs and DII Sold INR 1149.22 crs

I was expecting this dip. Nifty has closed below 6060 levels with a low at 6032. Typically, FIIs are still buying this market heavily in cash market. They pushed almost Rs 4000 crs in past four trading sessions and Nifty is at 4 day’s low. I can say that market is still not looking so bad that I can criticize all investment. I still consider this as a pullback in rise but we must be cautious at higher levels as those can trap bulls.  

Now, US index S&P 500 again goes on new life time high. I was cautious just before that. It has crossed previous high for good. It moved more than 5% in past seven trading sessions. So, we can say that global cues are stronger today.

Technical analysis is still advising cautious at higher levels in India. We may see some gap up of say 30-35 points. Now suppose, if it fills that gap up and breaks yesterday’s low then it will be confirm for next round of sell off. Technical resistance will emerge at 6100-6120 levels. Although, short term resistance can be only at 6160 levels.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future is going to see opening near 6100 levels. After opening it will face resistance in the zone of 6130 to 6150 levels. I am expecting pullback after gap up. We have downward threshold below 6050 only. Fall below 6050 can be little bigger than what market man are expecting. It is not necessary that we will follow global cues.

S&P 500 (USA) – I said for short with stop loss 1730 and I turn wrong. Above 1692, it gave sign of bullishness which should have ended before 1730. Now, it has crossed 1730 and generating a possible extension of rise. Above 1730, there is no point to conclude for any further attempt of shorting. Note that I have said this many times that US has strongest bulls of the world. Now, I cannot short as long as 1710 holds. Logically, it may cross 1742.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

17 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Another dead day is expected. I like to see market reaction after KM Birla named in FIR on COALGATE Scam. Technical resistance at 6160.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 October 2013: -

On 15 October 2013, FII Bought INR 1136.23 crs and DII Sold INR 1035.34 crs

Nifty almost remain at same point for third day in a row. It is just trading here and there near 6100 levels. FIIs are buying heavily in cash market from past three days. I always believe that FII used to buy the top heavily. They are doing same things this time too. Charting is suggesting for a pause and we got that. I need to add that we are still away from a possible threshold point for pullback.

I like to draw your attention towards one event that took place after market hours. CBI has launched a FIR against KM Birla in Coalgate scam. This can spread panic amongst corporate. Who is wrong and what is wrong that we cannot know but definitely it is a sentiment dampener. I like to see market reaction for today. In my view, it can hurt many stock prices who were dealing with coal field in India.  

Technical analysis is still suggesting some kind of top can emerge nearer to 6120. I am considering the decisive resistance at 6160 levels. We have a bright chance of moving higher again after a profit taking but that is too early to conclude. If drop comes with some disappointing news flow then ‘rise after fall’ will be delayed.

Equally, today it decisive day for US market in terms of technical and in terms of fundamentals too. Will S&P 500 able to surpass 1730. I do not know but I know that 1730 is a decisive level now. Failure will invite big sell off. Worry over US shut down is over and so it needs a new trigger.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future is going to see a flat opening as indicated by SGX NIFTY right now. Technical support will emerge in the zone of 6070 to 6050 levels. On higher side 6180-6200 will be decisive resistance. It is very clear that range to get direction is bigger but this generally happens after sharp moves. I am taking this as a sign for pause and it will continue. It will favour bears once it starts trading below 6070-6050.

S&P 500 (USA) – I said for rise as long as it holds 1692. It is still holding and generating the expected wild move after worry over US shut down. Now it is just near to its previous all-time high. Logically, 1730 will be a resistance and a decisive point too. Have a look at MACD on daily chart. Three tops come with drop on MACD top. This is challenging. Now it is goes above 1730 then there cannot be anything to worry but if it fails then a real big and brutal sell off will start anytime. Note that I am saying for drop which needs just 10 point of stop loss. Let us see.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

15 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Above 6120, it can try to move in the range of 6180-6200 levels. Possibility of new all-time high is growing on refusal of any correction!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 October 2013: -

On 14 October 2013, FII Bought INR 730.29 crs and DII Sold INR 641.20 crs

Nifty was almost remains in the range of 6100 to 6120. Honestly, it was never looking for profit taking the way I was expecting near 6120. It just came as pause and looking to move higher. If it is not coming from 6120 then it may try to advance in the next threshold zone of 6180 to 6200.

We got CPI data and Reliance result aftermarket hours. CPI data was disappointing but Reliance result neutralized the pain. Above all, US market revives well last night on hope of deal in US parliament. Still, there is no concrete information. We cannot know the exact situation. I need to consider that it has extended more than needed. Something should come by this week only.

Quarterly earnings are still on better side. So far, there is no big disappointment. Technical charts are suggesting that it can extend more if it manages to sustain above 6120. Global market is giving a hint for gap up today. If it comes near to 6200 then nothing would be left for traders to deal for intraday. This rise is extending from 5700 levels. One must remember that any great break above 6200 will give us 6232 too which will turn out to be levels for threshold for new all-time high.

Technical charts are still looking better than Indian economy data. I must say that pullbacks are not going to be more concerning. Sooner or later, it is going to hit a fresh all-time high. If not this month then next month but it will come.

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Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future is going to see another wild gap up after sharp recovery in US market last night. If it opens at 6200+ then there will be nothing great for traders. Looking on SGX Nifty, it is looking to open near 6200 levels only. I still need to see if Nifty can see some price correction from higher levels near 6200. If not then we can see more rise to reach towards all-time high. Today’s trading will be important. If it refuse to correct today then we can see the hopes growing to new all-time high.  

S&P 500 (USA) – I said for a possible dip if it goes below 1692. It has recovered just before 1692 by saving it and finally ended at 1710. Is it giving some kind of hint for new all-time high? I strongly believe that if some solution comes over US shut down then another newer high can be a reality. Strong technical support will be just at 1692. As long as it is staying above 1692, we can hope for extension of rise. It is a hope driven rise and so this hope must come true. Market would not be happy if it deadlock continues for weekend too.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

14 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect a possible pullback before fresh up move now. Confirmation can come only below 6060, so far not a compulsion. Technical resistance is at 6120.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 14 October 2013: -

On 11 October 2013, FII Bought INR 1010.45 crs and DII Sold INR 544.19 crs

Traditionally, FII has bought it heavily near 6100 marks. I have given the levels of 6100 from past few days when rise begun from 5700 levels. Now, we are at a zone where we can expect a pullback on some profit taking. Based on technical charts, it is still not going to be a compulsive move.

After market, we got August month IIP data. It came at 0.60% versus 2.80% in July. Market was expecting something near 2.50%. So, what is new in this? IIP is known to give surprises and mostly on negative side. It is not even rebounding in base effect. This is a failure of policy makers which has probably discounted by market long back when we saw fall due to weak currency.

I am more concerned as US shut down is extending longer than expected. I quoted last week too that it may extend more. We saw good technical recovery in US market in past two trading sessions. Some correlation is suggesting that trouble in US market has resulted some opportunistic push of money towards nation like India.  I can give on mark, keep an eye on 6060. If it starts trading below 6060 then pullback can intensify. Remember that India VIX is coming near to the support of 23 which is almost lowest in past 2 months. Over all, it is not as weak as feared but pullback cannot rule out.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future is going to see some flat to negative opening as SGX Nifty is trading with a loss of 10-12 points. Keep your eye on 6080. A break below 6080 can give confirmation of pullback. It will have resistance at 6150. I am not expecting any big pullback as of now. At some point on downside, I will turn a buyer but I need to wait for such trading signals.   

 S&P 500 (USA) – I said for a possible technical recovery wither from 1642 or from 1623. We got an optimistic recovery from nearer to 1642. Now, we can understand that it was just on hope. Market needs a solution of US shut down. Right now, S&P future is trading with a loss of 13 points as nothing came positive on weekend. So, very obviously a possible dip is coming now. It is just unnecessary trouble which market needs to bear. Below 1692, it can hit 1680 and then same downward targets will be applicable.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar