22 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A possible DOJI arises on Nifty to give me first hint for short term top. Confirmation has yet to come today. Above 6240 – up trend intact before short term top!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 October 2013: -

On 21 October 2013, FII Bought INR 1031.79 crs and DII Sold INR 724.10 crs

This kind of FIIs buy figures is not surprising me at all. Just think, they bought so much but then also market closed with nominal gain only. I may sound extra critics for FII but this is a fact that they are known to buy tops heavily and selling bottom also heavily. Right now, technical charts are saying that we almost got a DOJI pattern on daily chart. I still need to see confirmation today. I have spotted the resistance of 6240 then 6300 and then 6360. I am not extra excited and not preferring to hold long overnight.

My spotted resistance of 6240 has not come to see a test yet. India VIX hit a low at 19.16 and closed above 20. It looks like India VIX can hit max 18.50 before moving higher. I can still state that if it breaks 18.50-18.00 then I will just expect 13-12 levels for India VIX too. In that process NIFTY can hit higher by 6600 on Nifty. Will that be the case? Well, that looks very less possibility for me.

In short, Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, a short term top is coming. Now, it can be at 6240 or 6300 or even may be nearer to new all-time high at 6360. I would rather be very happy to see 6360. Note that I am not claiming for new all-time high, it is just my excited optimistic thought of a hardcore bull of past few weeks.

I like to add some views on Japanese index Nikkei. Right now it is at 14660. This is perhaps giving most appropriate signal for upcoming dip. A global sell off is coming. I still need to wait for the break 14500 for some good confirmation.

For today’s trading, keep an eye at 6160 for Nifty spot. It is likely to see a fall if breaks 6160. Technical resistance is at 6240. Let us see what is coming.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future may open lower then what it has closed yesterday. In fact, it was last minutes short covering which has pushed it higher. I have added short on Nifty October 6200 call again. Important technical support will be only at 6180-6170 levels. If it breaks then we will see good confirmation for profit taking. On higher side 6240-6260 will be resistance. It was spotted yesterday too and we saw high at 6139.  

S&P 500 (USA) – I still have reasons to stick with my point. S&P may try to come near to 1760 but we are near to the short term top formation. Generally speaking, this is another newer high and it should have euphoria of rise but that is definitely missing. We saw another choppy trading session last night. I want at last one negative close to conclude anything. As long as it holds 1730, it may remain up but I will sit on side line only. We are either at top or very close to top. Remember – it may invite real big and brutal sell off. I have no reasons for such dip but this is my view.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar