18 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Technical resistance will be in the zone of 6100-6120 levels. We may see pullback again after some moderate gap up after new all-time high on S&P 500.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 October 2013: -

On 17 October 2013, FII Bought INR 1109.93 crs and DII Sold INR 1149.22 crs

I was expecting this dip. Nifty has closed below 6060 levels with a low at 6032. Typically, FIIs are still buying this market heavily in cash market. They pushed almost Rs 4000 crs in past four trading sessions and Nifty is at 4 day’s low. I can say that market is still not looking so bad that I can criticize all investment. I still consider this as a pullback in rise but we must be cautious at higher levels as those can trap bulls.  

Now, US index S&P 500 again goes on new life time high. I was cautious just before that. It has crossed previous high for good. It moved more than 5% in past seven trading sessions. So, we can say that global cues are stronger today.

Technical analysis is still advising cautious at higher levels in India. We may see some gap up of say 30-35 points. Now suppose, if it fills that gap up and breaks yesterday’s low then it will be confirm for next round of sell off. Technical resistance will emerge at 6100-6120 levels. Although, short term resistance can be only at 6160 levels.

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Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future is going to see opening near 6100 levels. After opening it will face resistance in the zone of 6130 to 6150 levels. I am expecting pullback after gap up. We have downward threshold below 6050 only. Fall below 6050 can be little bigger than what market man are expecting. It is not necessary that we will follow global cues.

S&P 500 (USA) – I said for short with stop loss 1730 and I turn wrong. Above 1692, it gave sign of bullishness which should have ended before 1730. Now, it has crossed 1730 and generating a possible extension of rise. Above 1730, there is no point to conclude for any further attempt of shorting. Note that I have said this many times that US has strongest bulls of the world. Now, I cannot short as long as 1710 holds. Logically, it may cross 1742.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar