30 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Watch out for the resistance zone of 6240-6250 again. Market will get limited activity today due to fed meeting tonight.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 October 2013: -

On 29 October 2013, FII Bought INR 1103.04 crs and DII Sold INR 894.04 crs

I firmly believe that FIIs are known to buy the top heavily. We got good rise yesterday backed by better than expected RBI policy. Nifty moved higher with a hope of attempt to break 6240-6250 resistance levels.

Can it break? I can repeat the same words as of past. We cannot expect easy crossover of 6240-6250 levels. On first attempt it failed and hit 6080. It is going to be possible second attempt today. Key is that we have derivative expiry tomorrow and we will get the outcome of fed meeting which is scheduled tonight. Whatever comes from USA, it will cause gap opening tomorrow.

India VIX is below 20 again but I can strongly quite that 18.00-18.50 will be strong support. One must note that VIX chart is heavily oversold. Rise can begin anytime. In general rise of 120 points of Nifty could be taken as the sign of momentum which might have generated due to short covering before expiry.

I can still say wait for real crossover of 6240-6250. If it fails then you can get shock even today. I would be happy to see it breaking higher but cannot bet. Banks are on better side. I will definitely not going to prefer to forward trade before fed minutes as I have a bad track record of predicting the outcome.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future is likely to open flat today. It has moved from 6080 to 6237 yesterday. This is such a heavy rise and must have added short covering steam. First target and resistance will be at 6270. Will it surpass? All such answer will come during trading hours. In the downside 6175 will be a support. I am expecting lesser activity today due to fed meeting tonight. Equally, this market can again slip from high.

S&P 500 (USA) – I am giving a strongest possible warning – RSI and MACD divergence is giving sell after sell. This divergence is running from 1690. Do not believe the momentum blindly.

As expected it is coming towards the range of 1780-1800. So far, so good. US market is on dream run again. Remember, I always say that US has strongest bulls of the world. One should be very cautious before shorting US market. I still believe that this rise will end up brutally very soon but still not such primary signs are coming except technical divergence. All eyes will be on Fed chairman again.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar