29 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We are on “make or break” levels and “make or break” day too. Wait for RBI policy outcome. I cannot deny the possibility of 6000 in coming few days.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 October 2013: -

On 28 October 2013, FII Bought INR 636.78 crs and DII Sold INR 902.68 crs

What has done yesterday? I have quoted for 6094 as ‘not impossible even after gap up’. Nifty hit an exact low at 6094. I have already said that break will give reason for panic. Charts have chosen its set up. We are on 6094 just before RBI monetary policy. There are strong talks of hike in repo rate by 50 bps.

I can say that break below 6094 can result 6060 and then 6000 levels. On higher side it will find difficulty in crossing 6150 levels too. I am expecting silence till 11 am and market will wait for RBI Governor’s words. Market is already running on cautious note. Remember that we are now just two days away from derivative expiry.

Few days back I have said that we are on the verge of global sell off. I can see those happening in Japan but other nation has yet to join hand. US market is pausing with momentum. I can sense that globe is waiting for the outcome of fed meeting.

I cannot see any possibility of roll back of stimulus in USA sooner. Market is curious to know the possible date for rollback to happen. Let us see. No one can predict the outcome of fed minutes. I am always poor in predicting outcome of fed minutes. It always went against me so better no to do so.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future is likely to open flat today. It is going to be extremely dull till we get the outcome of RBI policy. Market has lesser hope as of now. Charts are saying that break below 6090 can give a threatening fall. I cannot deny the possibility of 6000. It can be by today or by expiry day. no higher levels can be safe to opt for buying.

S&P 500 (USA) – I am giving a strongest possible warning – RSI and MACD divergence is giving sell after sell. This divergence is running from 1690. Do not believe the momentum blindly.

It starts trading above 1760 but I cannot see any euphoria for extension of rally. All eyes go on fed minutes now which will start from tomorrow. Even though it is crossing 1760 but I am not comfortable to see for 1780-1800. True that charts are hinting for 1780-1800. I will sit on side line.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar