28 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: All focus will go on RBI and FED now. Technical support for Nifty is at 6120. Expect a dull day and speculative move on RBI policy today.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 October 2013: -

On 25 October 2013, FII Bought INR 626.99 crs and DII Sold INR 497.55 crs

We are on the last week of October and on expiry week too. What this month has done so far? So far, it is up by 7% in this month series. FIIs has pushed INR 12923 crs and DII sold INR 9229 crs. Then, we have a negative close last week. Majority of FII money come at higher end.

No one can short of exit from the market exactly at top. There are some ranges which are working as topping range. I still believe that 6200-6240-6250 is going to be such range. Sell signal will intensity once we take out 6120-6094 ranges. In my view, Option data has given a hint that expiry can be in the zone of 6000-6050 levels irrespective of Global cues. Market is likely to watch for upcoming monetary policy by RBI. Chances are less for good news coming from policy. We will see the shadow of speculation today.

Right now I can see only green in global markets and we can also expect some influenced start. Then, we will see resistance at 6200 levels. It is likely to be a dull session. There are few technology stocks or almost all tech pack which can emerge to give support to the market. Rate sensitive stocks are going to see some volatility.

In all, I prefer to focus at 6120 levels. If it breaks 6120 then we can immediately expect 6094 levels. We can expect panic profit taking if it breaks 6094 levels. It is challenging but not impossible. Activity may be less for the day.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – NIFTY future is likely to open at 6160+ levels as suggesting by SGX Nifty future. Breakdown point for Nifty October future is at 6120 only. It may try to retrace after higher opening. Technical resistance is at 6200 levels. Only a cross above 6200 will again push it towards 6240-6260 levels. I will not surprise to see a dull day today.

S&P 500 (USA) – It is back to hit 1760. This kind of closing at the high point of the day is inviting bulls. Cross above 1760 can push S&P towards 1780-1800. I am unable to read about the reason of fall but I can read the fall. I am giving a strongest possible warning – RSI and MACD divergence is giving sell after sell. This divergence is running from 1690. Do not believe the momentum blindly.

This kind of momentum can see ugly stop but pictures are not clear for those stopping point. Logically, it should be at 1760 but we may see advance. Looking like 1780 or 1800 will play a role.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar