30 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is ready for a higher start but we may not get support by follow up buying. Be cautious at higher levels as selling may start very soon.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 April 2013: -

On 29 April 2013, FII bought INR 620.38 crs and DII sold INR 366.20 crs.

I have already added for the importance of 5869 to 5860 range. It hit a low at 5868 and then bounced. This bounce came as a result reaction by HINDUNILVR. Well, whatever was the reason but finally closing was above 5900. I will stick with my logic of May month sell – off although we haven’t got any sign yet. My view is that we will get some kind of signs on technical charts very soon. Easy thing to conclude is that we can expect those beginning of May month selling once it breaks the support of 5869-5860 ranges.

We have seen renewed strength in US and Euro zone market in past few days which has extended their gain last night. US indices have almost coming near to their all-time high again. Now a day, expecting selling in USA is very tough words.

We got negative divergence from 5828 on hourly chart. Technical charts are suggesting that a new down trend is about to start now. I have already quoted earlier also for 5869 as crucial levels. Once it starts trading below 5869-5860 levels we will immediately see levels of 5829 to 5800. One should note that today is 13^th day form the bottom of 5477 levels. This rise almost remains uncorrected on daily chart.

Maximum it can try to save one more day before falling. Let us see how close we are from a bigger selling. Market must be focusing on upcoming monetary policy by RBI.

Strategy for Nifty May future – I cannot say that I got a perfect day to say for trend reversal. I am still feeling that Fibonacci series suggesting for price correction. So far, market is looking to make a higher start. After a positive start, it will fill the higher gap then I will look for some fall towards 5880 levels. Momentum might try to give 5980 levels but those are not so easy to feel and talk about. World need to change to bet anything bigger.  

S&P 500 – I said as long as it sustain below 1598, I will expect a fall but right now everything is missing to expect a correction. It has denied technical formation again and moved higher. Somehow I am feeling for May month selling but exact trading signal has yet to come. First requirement is that it needs to break 1583 support. In the best case of strength it can give 1610 on the crossover of 1598. It is just uni-directional from last five months of trades. Hope to get something tonight too!!!

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

29 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Reversal selling will start this week. First meaningful support will come at 5750-5700 levels. Global trend and RBI monetary policy will play major role. Who will disappoint first?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 April 2013: -

On 26 April 2013, FII bought INR 224.75 crs and DII sold INR 377.78 crs.

I was not able to present my studies for 26^th April due to some personal reasons. So, I am adding development starting from post expiry day. Perhaps it was wildest derivative expiry for recent multiple months. Nifty took a fast upwards swing due to short covering in last 30 minutes. It was big and huge.

I can conclude that expiry day top was a ‘pop up’ top. We should focus on some interesting “May month” consequences. We have seen May month dip in the year 2010, 2011 and 2012. The way this top is finishing in the April is itself an indication for no-better May month.

US market had formed a Doji pattern and we got a small dip on Friday’s trading. It is completely true that US market has no bad news as bad news. Something should come any time to stop that kind of gains or stability.

Technical charts are suggesting that a new down trend is about to start now. I believe that expiry day top 5924.60 will remains a crucial resistance and it may remain untested for recent days at least. I have already quoted earlier also for 5969 as crucial levels. Once it starts trading below 5869-5860 levels we will immediately see levels of 5829 to 5800. Sooner or later it has to start. I feel that even if market consolidates then also it will be fall.  I do not think that Nifty can try to cross 5910 even on higher side.

Strategy for Nifty May future – A pausing day was expected and it came on Friday with soft close. It should come to the technical levels of 5860 for today’s session. A further move below 5860 will confirm the reversal of trend. Nifty May future should see selling pressure for almost all trading session of this week. Crucial resistances will be at 5910 and at 5930. It is better to note that Bank Nifty may give a larger impact on trading movement. A clear trend will emerge after today’s trading sessions if it manage to close below 5860 levels.  

S&P 500 – I have written about May month sequences above. It is equally true for S&P 500 also, As long as S&P 500 is staying below 1598, it should just go down. It may take time as bulls are strongest in USA. For this week, S&P has support at 1540. If it breaks 1540 then we can expect a gradual down trend towards 1500. My studies all most remain same but it is just buying too much time before acting. It is still ‘a bulls favour a lot’ market but this can change with May month.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

25 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We will get higher opening that then a gradual selling on derivative expiry day. Crucial resistance will be at 5910 and crucial support will be at 5784 levels only.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 April 2013: -

On 23 April 2013, FII bought INR 226.21 crs and DII sold INR 529.29 crs.

Looking on FII money flow it is looking like market men are also confused. We can conclude that those are also not very confident money. We are now on derivative expiry day after a holiday. We are on 10^th day of recovery. Practically, market might not have big short to cover but volatility is always expected on derivative expiry day.  

Till now, Nifty has broken each resistance and respected each support too. We are going to see higher opening but it may be treated as a ‘pop – up’ opening. Nifty still has resistance in the zone of 5870 to 5900 levels. It will open in the given zone and then we will see a decline. It is sharpest and biggest 10 days movement of the recent time. Charts are suggesting that we are near to ‘the short term top’ again. Sharper rally may result the consolidation first. I still need to add that minimum condition for price pullback is ‘a negative close’. We still have not got that weak negative close. We must be very close to get that pausing to weak signal.

Even US market has given a Doji pattern after one day of massive recovery. It is not easy to beat the most power bulls of the world that are at USA. This remains a single biggest boosting factor for the rest of the global market. Odd money may try to keep technical on back foot. It means that market may not respect the technical signal in a good way. It needs to give some divergence before falling. Derivative expiry day is most suitable to give such signals.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I have already concluded earlier that as long as it is saving 5790 it will save the fall. Well, I was expecting resistance at 5830 levels which was respected whole day before breaking on higher side in last few minutes of trades. It is expected to take strong gap up in the morning minutes but it will open on resistance at 5910 levels. It will not be easy day to trade. We can expect weakness after higher opening. Rest will depend on expiry volatility. I still feel that we will see closing well away from day’s high.

S&P 500 – I was expecting a soft bounce. It hit a high at 1583 and that is surprising for me. I was expecting top in the range of 1570 to 1575 levels. Still, charting pattern suggest that it came to make double top with second top lower than the previous one. Broader chart suggests that now it will again open a move towards 1543 levels. This selling should start from today onwards. I strongly believe that one close below 50 DMA will push S&P 500 towards 1500 levels.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

23 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It has next resistance at 5870. We are close to make a small top but not yet confirmed. It requires the break below 5784 (strong support) to bet for some meaningful correction.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 April 2013: -

On 22 April 2013, FII bought INR 915.82 crs and DII sold INR 442.54 crs.

Money is again flowing into India. Nifty gained over 6.50% from its recent intraday low of 5477 levels. Nifty has critical resistance in the zone of 5830 to 5870. As shown in the given chart, 5870 is 61.80% of retracement against the fall from 6111 to 5477.

Market need to respond on the announcement done by CCI last night. Well, but there were no decision on coal pooling. We are entering in big – banking result from today onwards. HDFC Bank will prefer its figures today. Equally APPLE and AT&T will also present its figures today. Our market will take cues for further moves. Note that Cairn India has presented poor result.

India VIX goes higher by 5.60% yesterday but small cap and mid cap indices were on better relative gain. We have holiday tomorrow and day after tomorrow we have derivative expiry. Market is looking to change almost everything in past eight trading sessions. I do not think that market has any big short in the market now.  

A pullback is very likely after smart gain. It is still not clear if we got the top before pullback. I am repeating that it is banking stocks which have dominated in recent recovery. Bank Nifty has seen the rise over 16% in past few days and still there is no sign of any profit taking. If pull back comes then it may have money waiting to buy.

Politics can be capable to give shocking movement anytime. Take this as precaution as long as budget session run. Coal and 2 G scam is attracting politician again.

Strategy for Nifty April future – It was giving me a sense that it will respect the resistance at 5830 levels but it has broken higher in last 30 minutes of trading. Crossover of 5830 is giving hint for 5870 but we are heavily over bought now. I am expecting some pullback now before making further move. Well, derivative expiry will play its important role now. So, we can expect stiff technical resistance at 5870. Equally, as long as 5790 saves it may deny big for bears. A great down side break can come only if it sustain below 5790. Is it coming?   

S&P 500 – It hit 1548 before bounce yesterday. It has entered in the resistance of 1560 to 1565 levels. Futures makes a high when are trading and futures makes a low when US is trading. For us, it will open down. Yesterday’s rise has generated a pattern for bounce but as of now US and EU futures are trading lower. I want one close below 50 DMA but that has not come till now. It is fluctuating between 20 EMA and 50 DMA. Let us see the impact as almost every single Asian market is trading with softness now.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

22 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is on 8th day from its recent bottom and gained over 300 points to match rest of the globe. Pullback may end very soon but strong support at 5750-5725 now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 April 2013: -

On 18 April 2013, FII bought INR 940.07 crs and DII sold INR 405.22 crs.

FII has started their buying again after sign for trading cut and trimming trade deficit data. At this point of time global market is again on gain backed by weaker yen. Japanese market moving higher at its 5 year’s high.

Well, budget session is beginning from today. Market is hoping for land acquisition bill to be passed. Expect massive sought on JPC report. I am scared that member of parliaments may not have time to discuss crucial bills which are need for economy.

India VIX has slipped over 6% on last trading session. It is looking that it will have support at 14.50 levels which should not be broken. Indian market has already retraced by 50% against the fall from 6111 to 5477. So, we are at mid-point of this fall. 61.80% retracement will give us almost 5870 levels which is next logical resistance.

Nifty has recovered 50% of its fall in just few trading days. I am expecting resistance in moving ahead but those are speculative views. I prefer to wait for the sign of tiredness and then for weakness. We will see crucial supports emerging at 5750 to 5725 zone which was resistance earlier. I am sure that rise will get sold very sooner by this week itself but we have derivative expiry too for this month of trades.

Politics can be capable to give shocking movement anytime.

Strategy for Nifty April future – It has surpassed the resistance of 5730 and came very close to 5800 levels. We may expect a positive opening but it will have a bigger threat to get sold at higher levels by today itself. Trading resistance for Nifty April month future is at 5830 levels. It will be better idea to switch towards May month series and prefer to cover option strategy of April month series. I feel that today’s high will remain the top for April series till derivative expiry.  

S&P 500 – It has traded below 1543 but seen immediate bounce. It was just typical one bull’s attempt. Weekly chart is hinting me for the beginning for selling. I am getting resistance at 1560-1565 itself. If I am right then US market will close on day’s low today. What we need is one close below 1543 and then we can expect a move towards 1510-1500 levels.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

18 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Global gloomy outlook is turning as setback for all global indices. Keep an eye on 5650 support, likely to be tested. If breaks then we can expect good dip. 200 DMA @ 5659.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 April 2013: -

On 17 April 2013, FII bought INR 206.68 crs and DII sold INR 260.93 crs.

I have already quoted as 5710 < 5730 as resistance. It hit a high at 5732 and then slipped. IMF has reduced global growth forecasts. We have seen bigger fall in European and American market last night. European markets were already down much when we closed. You can say that Indian market has sustained better yesterday comparing to Europe.

It seems that Indian market were relatively better choice on buy side. One must note that when Nifty was flat then also bank nifty was higher by 0.90%. So, it was over all banks who have dominated the uptrend without any weakness. It is the rate cut hope which has given recent boost. We have RBI monetary policy review on 03^rd May 2013, still a long way to go if global market remains scary.

Yesterday, VIX was higher by 0.70% when market closed dead flat. VIX is showing that rise must be very limited above 5700. We got exactly the expected outcome. We have some critical moving average falling to some important levels. 200 DMA is at 5659 and 20 EMA is at 5650 levels.

I am expecting soft opening then we must look for how market is going to react at 5650. If it breaks and sustain below 5650 then it will again open newer and lower zone for trades.

Specially note that CCEA meeting will be conducted today evening where market may expect some policy related decision. I can never bet on Indian policy makers. If it comes then good else same story will be repeated. There may be some decisions on land acquisition bill and some decision on relief package for exports.

Strategy for Nifty April future – It does not matter how it open. Important will be if it can break 5660. Further fall towards 5600 is expected on the break of 5660. Suppose, if it is not breaking 5660 then it will just turn choppy. Take a note that market will on long weekend now so some caution movement is expected in the second half and it will be in favour of European market trend. I will still say resistance at 5730 + levels and fall should come. Hope on CCEA may try to save some extent.

S&P 500 – I was expecting a washed out of Tuesday’s recovery. We got that and S&P 500 got exact support @ 50 DMA. It hit a low at 1543 which was nearer to 50 DMA. This is fine. Now, I will look for support at 1543 and break of 50 DMA will be next requirement for fall towards 1500. I am expecting this to happen tonight. Ben Barnanke is saying that economy is recovery but IMF has different words. Time has come to know the reality.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

17 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Cross-over of 5610 has given its typical rise towards 5700. It may extend more but fall is again very near from higher levels. I do not think we hit the bottom yet or recovery top yet.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 April 2013: -

On 16 April 2013, FII bought INR 591.75 crs and DII sold INR 204.89 crs.

We have seen massive recovery in Indian market and it denied all negative cues from USA. Prime reasons for this rise were hope of rate cut in up-coming monetary policy review and easing crude oil price. Hopes were also there from Reliance result which delivered good numbers after-market hours. Numbers are good but not good enough to see any good rise. (I would not surprise after moderate high and fall).

There were few remarkable formations yesterday. First is, Nifty moved above 200 DMA very easily. It was never looking like we were crossing 200 DMA. This is was a good part.

It is not that everything was good only. Look at India VIX. When Nifty gained by 2.30% VIX slipped only by 2.20%. This fall on VIX is not as per market movement. This indicates that traders are still fearful towards this rise. Now, suppose if VIX stay above 16 for today also then we might be near to another leg of sell off in coming few days.

Well, we have seen recovery in USA market last night but it is not generating pleasant development. If Indian market is rising on hope of rate cut then I must say that I am also expecting rate cut. I am saying one more thing that banking stocks has already done comparing to the hopes.

Corporate earnings in India are not as strong as USA. Indian market will soon begin the phase of underperformance. Today’s trading is crucial. I will look for follow up trading. Nifty will have trading resistance at 5710 < 5730 and then final at 5800 levels which I am not expecting to come.

Strategy for Nifty April future – Charts were demanding for trades below 5500 to go lower but that condition never came. Driven by banking index, it may try to maintain higher levels but we have gradual resistance at higher side. If you take rough calculation then you can observe that we got 250-300 points of recovery after each fall. In my view 5720-5725 is a critical zone of resistance. In the lower side if it sustain below 5675 for 5-10 minutes then we can see dip towards 5625 in few hours.

S&P 500 – A recovery came after Boston blast. Is it changing things a lot? In my view, this pullback cam for good for bears only. It may not be trap for bears like after-job-data rise. I am not expecting a re-test of higher levels like 1590. We are going to get a higher levels fall again. Surely, bears had not easy deal in past few months so traditionally this may test patience. If market get a bad after good day then things will be critical. Is it coming?

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

16 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We saw an up day but again with failure of 5610 then US market tumble last night. Expect gap down for a move towards 5500 < 5447. If not stop then even 5400 too.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 April 2013: -

On 15 April 2013, FII sold INR 418.37 crs and DII sold INR 297.18 crs.

I am already saying this from past few days that FIIs are losing hope and they may prefer to take big exit. Yesterday’s sell figure in cash market is biggest for single day in recent few months. Remember, this came when Nifty closed with a gain of 40 points.

I am not giving much importance to yesterday’s recovery as it came due to excessive shorting and less trigger for further selling. Well, I used higher levels for shorting again. Global market is providing trigger at this moment as US market slipped massively last night. It is coming after a real long waiting. We have equally seen the massive selling in commodity market too where Gold gave big dent.

We got improved WPI numbers, which has also helped us to close in green but nifty close much away from its intraday top. Now, why gold slipped in this brutal way? Market has a fear that some euro zone country will sell their gold reserve. Imagine one thing, if you are forced to sell your gold which your family owned from long time then what can be concluded for your financial condition? Your answer is the condition of euro zone. So, Mr, Mario Draghi brings this. Sooner or later, all asset class will get this kind of melt down.

In my view, technical figures will remain unchanged. This fall is already coming from my given resistance of 5610. As long as it is below 5610, I can hope for 5447 to 5400 marks. Market would like to see Reliance result also as trigger event. Let us see the figures first. Market has higher hopes.

My point is that we are moving towards some global meltdown sooner or later. This is most crucial week as data from USA and China has suggested for halt in economic recovery.  

Strategy for Nifty April future – I said yesterday to keep an eye on 5500 marks. It hit a low at 5503 in initial minutes and then bounced. This bounce came due to better than expect WPI numbers and some short covering. In the bounce it came at 5600 but slipped in final minutes of trades. I am again saying keep an eye on 5500. If trades sustains for 5-10 minutes below 5500 then we may see fall towards 5450 levels too. It is always better to sell rise in this kind of market.

S&P 500 – I was so tired yesterday as my anticipated fall was not coming. Immediately, we got the selling and S&P 500 came near 1550 levels with a loss of 37 points in a single days. I got a buy signal on CBEO VIX in the mid-March month itself and it has suddenly moved from 12 to 17 now (gaining over 40%). I am expecting a sooner cross above 20 as fear is rising in the market now. I am expecting fall to be deeper for this week now. Chances are higher than we will see S&P 500 coming in the zone of 1500 to 1485 in just few days.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

15 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Somehow and someway, Nifty will find its way to sail towards 5447 to 5400 levels. Indian market opened its earning season with massive disappointment.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 April 2013: -

On 12 April 2013, FII sold INR 28.59 crs and DII sold INR 311.92 crs.

It is looking like FII are losing their hopes on Indian market. Till now, there is no big exit yet from cash market but money flow can turn alarming now. It was expected due to under performance. Now when earnings are also justifying the fall, situation can be really bad.

We need to note that it was technology stocks which had a better performance in past 3 months. Now, after Infosys result, it’s the time to think again. Banking index has limited the bigger damage on blue-chip index. In my view IPP and CPI data were also not so bad. When I am saying ‘not so bad’ then I refers to the possibility of rate cut in up-coming monetary policy review. I feel that we will get another rate cut in the early next month. That is still too far as it will come after 12 trading sessions.

My concern is that we have to see the worse possible earning season before any good news. Market will react on WPI number too. Reliance will present its quarterly numbers tomorrow. There is nothing good or optimistic to discuss except US market.

I have no reason to make any change in technical views. My technical charts are suggesting me for resistance at 5610. I have already said for the support in the zone of 5540 to 5530 and it ended below 5530. I am sensing that sooner or later, Nifty will hit 5447 levels first. On 13-14 September 2012 we had a gap up from 5447 to 5527. Market should prefer to fill up that gap up.

Prefer to see new wave of political heat in India.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I am expecting a soft opening for today. Then keep an eye on dot 5500 levels. Suppose, if it start trading below 5500 then we can see rapid fall towards 5480 to 5450 levels. On higher side it will face resistance at 5560 levels. It will be another complex trading day ahead. One must note that now market is giving impulsive moves on both ways. If fall comes then follow up comes with fall or vice versa. I will not prefer to touch this market unnecessarily. I am strongly saying; be aware of put call ratio.

S&P 500 – Day after day, it has passed almost 4 months. There is no any remarkable price correction. Now even at new all time, reactions are not coming the way I was expecting. 74 S&P 500 companies will declare its earning this week. The way it has recovered on Friday, I need to conclude that it will take a green Monday and an ugly week. Now, I will not say, “When will it correct?” Now I need to say, “Will it ever correct?” It is not only the historical levels but also the historically bullish sentiment. Rather than predicting for levels (which is next to impossible now, last one is 1600) I will go with a view for correction/profit taking /fall.        

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

12 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is respecting 5610 resistance marks but all eyes should be on Infosys earning & fundamental data. Meaningful support is only in the zone of 5540-5530.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 April 2013: -

On 11 April 2013, FII bought INR 36.63 crs and DII bought INR 57.71 crs.

Indian market was on the path of recovery even yesterday with wild movement in last 100 minutes. From past two trading sessions, last 100 minutes of trading turning crucial. We have Infosys result today and opening with be driven by those.

Before that, I have two importance points to add. First is the FII and DII numbers, both are sluggish. It is giving a hint that there is no decisive money on the table. Another important point is about INDIAVIX. When NIFTY has closed higher by 0.60%, VIX should have closed down. In reality INDIAVIX has closed higher by 2.90% @ 16.97.

Above two factors forced me to conclude that recovery can stop any moment now. I have already given 5610 as resistance which was respected well yesterday. There are better hopes for Infosys earning numbers. Somehow, it seems that those will be neutralized.

Market might eagerly react on IIP and WPI data too which are scheduled to come today. Traditionally, IIP may goes in negative again. I strongly believe that we can expect only base effect based improvement on IIP numbers as there are no efforts to improve those. We are far away from the period of base effect.  

My technical charts are suggesting me for resistance at 5610 and further rise depends on the cross of that. Crossover of 5610 can give 5650-5680. In the down side, we have meaningful support only at 5540-5530 zone.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I have already said that 5626-5630 is also a meaningful resistance. We have seen high at 5617 then a fall. It was so simple to write but equally tougher to trade. There will be technical support at 5540 levels only. If one is thinking to trade long then one has to be very careful. Technical charts are not stable yet. Volatility may be even worse now. We have lots of things to react as well it is Friday too.

S&P 500 – ‘Ben Guarantee’ continues and it has closed in green again with marginal distance from 1600. US SPX VIX was also high yesterday. How can that happen that S&P and VIX both are higher with same extent. Something is not right. Practically, there is NO BAD NEWS in USA. It is looking like they got the perfect idea condition and most efficient market. Is it possible? Now 20 EMA is at 1562, looks too far to come. This is the phase where one can just wait as there is nothing to act.       

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

11 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A good bounce came to close above 5548 marks. It is giving hint for a move towards 5600-5610. Will it cross to move 5610 to get a next up move?

 You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 April 2013: -

On 10 April 2013, FII bought INR 40.22 crs and DII bought INR 197.29 crs.

We got a bounce in last 100 minutes of trading yesterday. Indian market tries to come in parallel with global recovery but we are still under performing in a good way. European market gained over 2-3 % yesterday while US market moved towards another life time high. For Indian market I will not say that one day of rise is enough to bet for bottom. Equally, it is better to avoid shorting lower levels.

I can say that our market will not be as strong as global market. We will get our first big earning figure tomorrow as Infosys will present its figures. Market will wait for newer set of IIP and WPI numbers.

Technical charts are saying that as long it sustain above 5548, we can hope for 5600-5610. There is great point to expect more rise above 5610. I can expect weakness only if it breaks 5548 levels. There is a strong logic that I like to watch this time. We have recovered well yesterday and now it is all set to open with gap up. If this gap up does not fill then it will be bull’s gap up. On that basis we will have few critical levels, which I will discuss in next paragraph.

We have seen massive short covering from low which was justified by FIIs numbers too. Now IndiaVIX is down only by 2% and it is now at 16.49. So, now one has to be cautious at higher levels. Indian market has history of shocking market men at higher levels. Charts are saying that we may see a move above 200 DMA if it manages to sustain above 5610.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I was expecting 5450 but it bounced from 5480. It was wild run in last 100 minutes yesterday. SGX Nifty is showing that we may see higher opening. After a gap up, we will have two important levels to watch. One is at 5577 and next is at 5553. These two should be trading supports. On higher side, we can expect levels 5626 to 5630 levels. This is going to be a tough trading session to handle volatility. It is better to deal only in second half. I am definitely not expecting a cross above 5650. As long as we are below 5650, we will again hit lower.

S&P 500 – Will USA market ever correct? I will say ‘Ben Guarantee’ is above all market dynamics and technical indicators. US market is turning to a gravity free space. We can only hope for something to come but no one knows what could be that ‘next big’ thing. So far, everything looks good for rise for USA. Above all time high, theoretically there cannot be any resistance. I have no great levels to talk about. US market is at all-time high, Japan is at 5 year’s high.     

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

10 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Every support can fail while every support will act. It is looking like to move towards 5450-5400 levels. Now, 5548 may act as stiff trading resistance. FII selling continues.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 10 April 2013: -

On 09 April 2013, FII Sold INR 664.90 crs and DII bought INR 987.81 crs.

This is a bad beginning of a cycle. I have already expressed my doubt earlier also that FII may prefer exit from an underperforming market like India. It has started a week back and now intensifying. Well, no one can run away from what is going to happen. I was expecting a rebound. It came yesterday in first half but it immediately got sold at high.

I have already said yesterday that Nifty has a positive divergence of 60-70 points so it bounced for just 60-70 points and slipped. It has missed the critical 5610 marks to invite selling.

Rise failed to sustain even for an hour. This is itself showing the sentiment. I am concluding that Nifty has given up support of 5548. Now it is all set to open for next trading levels which can be near to 5400 or lower than that also.

What is the reason of this kind of selling? It may be hard to believe that derivative data showing that Indian market is not confident towards upcoming quarterly numbers. I am sensing that Nifty will face resistance at 5550 and 5610 marks. I have already warned from mid-cap stocks.

In past three trading sessions, I tried few long which worked well but Nifty never gave me any degree of comfort. I can say one thing; Indian market has missed the best possible levels for technical recovery. It is itself alarming.

Technical candle pattern – Bearish engulfing. It is double inside bar. It does not matter where it open but fall is very likely now.

Do you know that Indian market came at 7 month’s lowest levels? US market hit another life time high.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I am sensing that we should expect levels of 5450 now. In worse case selling it can hit 5400 also. On higher side it will have resistance at 5530 and then at 5560. One must note that most of the time selling comes once European markets open. Worse part is that it is taking only negative cues from global market. There is nothing much to add. This market is turning simple. Sell on every rise as no rise will sustain. Long trades have no meaning now.

S&P 500 – I was expecting a dead day before fall but it hit another trading high. Even European markets were off their day’s high. So as of now it should react with formation of double top. I still think that a dead day should come. One needs to note that 20 EMA support is now at 1555. It is also important to note that it has not yet closed below 20 EMA and this is a least prime condition to bet big on S&P 500. Is it coming? Yes, but when will it come that I do not know yet.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

09 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty support is emerging near 5548 – 5534 zone. Technical ‘positive divergence’ can give a bounce but no bounce will sustain in coming days. Dovish sentiment will limit recovery.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 09 April 2013: -

On 08 April 2013, FII Sold INR 163.95 crs and DII bought INR 212.72 crs.

One must focus on FII flow pattern. It was 5^th straight day of selling. Is it not ridiculous that FIIs are selling when market already came lower? Well, they have done lots of hedging too. I do not give much importance to this but we need to accept that cycle is changing. I doubt that big money will not come sooner to Indian market as it has turned to underperforming market.

Now, market man should focus on earning season. It is not only true for Indian market but also for USA market too. Will that act as trigger for selling in USA market? God knows.  

Indian market is not doing anything great from past two trading sessions. I have already discussed about the ‘formation of possible positive divergence’ on daily as well as hourly chart but it is not giving any result. This divergence got a length of nearly 70-74 points. Derivative data suggests that put-call ratio is near at 0.80.

I have no great expectation but I will prefer to keep my bias on positive side. I have one condition – it must stand above 5534. If it breaks 5534 then it will slip towards 5500-5480. Positive divergence should play its role but when.

I cannot yet say that I am getting a trigger to buy. I have already few days back that break below 5548 will not give easy recovery. I may prefer to pick opportunity in stocks only.

Strategy for Nifty April future – Strong support for Nifty future will be at 5550. If it breaks then it can give up to 5524 – 5503 levels. I am expecting a rebound but a trigger is missing. One must note that even for divergence we need trigger. I am sure that no rebound is going to sustain but it deserve a rebound. I am cautiously optimistic as long as 5550 hold. If it breaks then I will not touch Index. I am not confident but I am expecting rebound near 5600 levels.

S&P 500 – Again, a rebound from Friday’s shock. I was sensing this to come so I said yesterday that it may try to hold for 1-2 days. Now it came to the levels I was expecting. Yesterday’s rise came with small volume. Expect a dead day today and then fall will begin. You can conclude that this rise came to form a lower top. Note another important point – we need close below 20 EMA to bet something big.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

08 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Now 5548 have broken and scope of easy recovery has died. Technical says for rebound but that may not sustain due to political heat. Prepare to see support at 5502 and 5480.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 08 April 2013: -

On 05 April 2013, FII Sold INR 203.19 crs and DII bought INR 21.47 crs.

It was 4^th day in a row on 05^th April 3013 that FII has sold in cash market. This is giving showing that sentiment in Indian market is turning worse from bad. Market was making some attempt for intraday recovery but those spoiled after 2:25 pm on Friday.

Once it has broken 5548 then we may not see easy recovery. If you look at technical charts then you came to know there were positive divergence on RSI and MACD both but recovery denied. I can say that global cues were not able to help Indian market. One must note that our market has slipped over 9% from its recent peak.

This kind of nervousness is coming from ‘political heat’. I am sure that talks and threat of ‘mid-term poll’ will be there for long time but it may never be a reality sooner. Well, threat is enough to dent the market.

Technical charts are suggesting we will have three important resistances, one at 5534 (i.e. yesterday’s low), then near to 5500 marks. If those also fail then you can hope for 5480 too. I am a technician and I can give so many supports but what you should take? Try to grasp the main trend of the market and calculate the possibility of recovery.

Main trend is still ‘down’. There is a small possibility of technical recovery from a panic kind situation but I do not know how long will it sustain. I am sure for one thing – every recovery will get sold at higher levels. A fresh new wave of selling is coming to bring Nifty towards 5400 or lower.

RBI governor blame villagers for higher inflation. Finally, he also started the same song as of UPA. Is it a sign of ‘rate cut’ in coming month too? Yes, it is.

I am giving a concrete thing – if I assume that wave ‘1’ on weekly chart was from 6112 to 5663 then this wave will end at 4955. Opps shocking!!!

Strategy for Nifty April future – I was expecting a pause near 5562 support but the way it has closed is alarming. Expect a gap down as suggested by SGX NIFTY. It may open near 5540 then critical support will emerge at 5503 levels only. We are on the edge of technical recovery but I do not know if it is coming or not. Let us be honest – a recovery will come and then a wave of sell off may hit this market again. In recovery it will face resistance in the zone of 5590-5600.

S&P 500 – Who can stop the strongest bulls of the world? Yes, USA bulls are strongest. European market slipped by 5% from its recent peak, Nifty and Hang Seng has lost 9% but USA indices are still stronger. I do not think for another newer high for S&P 500 anymore but it will try to sustain for 1-2 days more above 1552. I was close below 1552 which was looking sure but denied by short covering. It may take time but it has given opening for fall.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar