09 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty support is emerging near 5548 – 5534 zone. Technical ‘positive divergence’ can give a bounce but no bounce will sustain in coming days. Dovish sentiment will limit recovery.
You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 09
April 2013: -
On 08 April
2013, FII Sold INR 163.95 crs and DII bought INR 212.72 crs.
One must
focus on FII flow pattern. It was 5th straight day of selling. Is it
not ridiculous that FIIs are selling when market already came lower? Well, they
have done lots of hedging too. I do not give much importance to this but we
need to accept that cycle is changing. I doubt that big money will not come
sooner to Indian market as it has turned to underperforming market.
Now,
market man should focus on earning season. It is not only true for Indian
market but also for USA market too. Will that act as trigger for selling in USA
market? God knows.
Indian market
is not doing anything great from past two trading sessions. I have already
discussed about the ‘formation of possible positive divergence’ on daily as
well as hourly chart but it is not giving any result. This divergence got a
length of nearly 70-74 points. Derivative data suggests that put-call ratio is
near at 0.80.
I have no
great expectation but I will prefer to keep my bias on positive side. I have
one condition – it must stand above 5534. If it breaks 5534 then it will slip
towards 5500-5480. Positive divergence should play its role but when.
I cannot
yet say that I am getting a trigger to buy. I have already few days back that
break below 5548 will not give easy recovery. I may prefer to pick opportunity
in stocks only.
Strategy
for Nifty April future – Strong support for
Nifty future will be at 5550. If it breaks then it can give up to 5524 – 5503 levels.
I am expecting a rebound but a trigger is missing. One must note that even for
divergence we need trigger. I am sure that no rebound is going to sustain but
it deserve a rebound. I am cautiously optimistic as long as 5550 hold. If it
breaks then I will not touch Index. I am not confident but I am expecting
rebound near 5600 levels.
S&P
500
– Again, a rebound from Friday’s shock. I was sensing this to come so I said
yesterday that it may try to hold for 1-2 days. Now it came to the levels I was
expecting. Yesterday’s rise came with small volume. Expect a dead day today and
then fall will begin. You can conclude that this rise came to form a lower top.
Note another important point – we need close below 20 EMA to bet something big.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
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