12 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is respecting 5610 resistance marks but all eyes should be on Infosys earning & fundamental data. Meaningful support is only in the zone of 5540-5530.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 April 2013: -

On 11 April 2013, FII bought INR 36.63 crs and DII bought INR 57.71 crs.

Indian market was on the path of recovery even yesterday with wild movement in last 100 minutes. From past two trading sessions, last 100 minutes of trading turning crucial. We have Infosys result today and opening with be driven by those.

Before that, I have two importance points to add. First is the FII and DII numbers, both are sluggish. It is giving a hint that there is no decisive money on the table. Another important point is about INDIAVIX. When NIFTY has closed higher by 0.60%, VIX should have closed down. In reality INDIAVIX has closed higher by 2.90% @ 16.97.

Above two factors forced me to conclude that recovery can stop any moment now. I have already given 5610 as resistance which was respected well yesterday. There are better hopes for Infosys earning numbers. Somehow, it seems that those will be neutralized.

Market might eagerly react on IIP and WPI data too which are scheduled to come today. Traditionally, IIP may goes in negative again. I strongly believe that we can expect only base effect based improvement on IIP numbers as there are no efforts to improve those. We are far away from the period of base effect.  

My technical charts are suggesting me for resistance at 5610 and further rise depends on the cross of that. Crossover of 5610 can give 5650-5680. In the down side, we have meaningful support only at 5540-5530 zone.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I have already said that 5626-5630 is also a meaningful resistance. We have seen high at 5617 then a fall. It was so simple to write but equally tougher to trade. There will be technical support at 5540 levels only. If one is thinking to trade long then one has to be very careful. Technical charts are not stable yet. Volatility may be even worse now. We have lots of things to react as well it is Friday too.

S&P 500 – ‘Ben Guarantee’ continues and it has closed in green again with marginal distance from 1600. US SPX VIX was also high yesterday. How can that happen that S&P and VIX both are higher with same extent. Something is not right. Practically, there is NO BAD NEWS in USA. It is looking like they got the perfect idea condition and most efficient market. Is it possible? Now 20 EMA is at 1562, looks too far to come. This is the phase where one can just wait as there is nothing to act.       

Regards,

Praveen Kumar