30 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is ready for a higher start but we may not get support by follow up buying. Be cautious at higher levels as selling may start very soon.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 April 2013: -

On 29 April 2013, FII bought INR 620.38 crs and DII sold INR 366.20 crs.

I have already added for the importance of 5869 to 5860 range. It hit a low at 5868 and then bounced. This bounce came as a result reaction by HINDUNILVR. Well, whatever was the reason but finally closing was above 5900. I will stick with my logic of May month sell – off although we haven’t got any sign yet. My view is that we will get some kind of signs on technical charts very soon. Easy thing to conclude is that we can expect those beginning of May month selling once it breaks the support of 5869-5860 ranges.

We have seen renewed strength in US and Euro zone market in past few days which has extended their gain last night. US indices have almost coming near to their all-time high again. Now a day, expecting selling in USA is very tough words.

We got negative divergence from 5828 on hourly chart. Technical charts are suggesting that a new down trend is about to start now. I have already quoted earlier also for 5869 as crucial levels. Once it starts trading below 5869-5860 levels we will immediately see levels of 5829 to 5800. One should note that today is 13^th day form the bottom of 5477 levels. This rise almost remains uncorrected on daily chart.

Maximum it can try to save one more day before falling. Let us see how close we are from a bigger selling. Market must be focusing on upcoming monetary policy by RBI.

Strategy for Nifty May future – I cannot say that I got a perfect day to say for trend reversal. I am still feeling that Fibonacci series suggesting for price correction. So far, market is looking to make a higher start. After a positive start, it will fill the higher gap then I will look for some fall towards 5880 levels. Momentum might try to give 5980 levels but those are not so easy to feel and talk about. World need to change to bet anything bigger.  

S&P 500 – I said as long as it sustain below 1598, I will expect a fall but right now everything is missing to expect a correction. It has denied technical formation again and moved higher. Somehow I am feeling for May month selling but exact trading signal has yet to come. First requirement is that it needs to break 1583 support. In the best case of strength it can give 1610 on the crossover of 1598. It is just uni-directional from last five months of trades. Hope to get something tonight too!!!

Regards,

Praveen Kumar