25 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We will get higher opening that then a gradual selling on derivative expiry day. Crucial resistance will be at 5910 and crucial support will be at 5784 levels only.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 April 2013: -

On 23 April 2013, FII bought INR 226.21 crs and DII sold INR 529.29 crs.

Looking on FII money flow it is looking like market men are also confused. We can conclude that those are also not very confident money. We are now on derivative expiry day after a holiday. We are on 10^th day of recovery. Practically, market might not have big short to cover but volatility is always expected on derivative expiry day.  

Till now, Nifty has broken each resistance and respected each support too. We are going to see higher opening but it may be treated as a ‘pop – up’ opening. Nifty still has resistance in the zone of 5870 to 5900 levels. It will open in the given zone and then we will see a decline. It is sharpest and biggest 10 days movement of the recent time. Charts are suggesting that we are near to ‘the short term top’ again. Sharper rally may result the consolidation first. I still need to add that minimum condition for price pullback is ‘a negative close’. We still have not got that weak negative close. We must be very close to get that pausing to weak signal.

Even US market has given a Doji pattern after one day of massive recovery. It is not easy to beat the most power bulls of the world that are at USA. This remains a single biggest boosting factor for the rest of the global market. Odd money may try to keep technical on back foot. It means that market may not respect the technical signal in a good way. It needs to give some divergence before falling. Derivative expiry day is most suitable to give such signals.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I have already concluded earlier that as long as it is saving 5790 it will save the fall. Well, I was expecting resistance at 5830 levels which was respected whole day before breaking on higher side in last few minutes of trades. It is expected to take strong gap up in the morning minutes but it will open on resistance at 5910 levels. It will not be easy day to trade. We can expect weakness after higher opening. Rest will depend on expiry volatility. I still feel that we will see closing well away from day’s high.

S&P 500 – I was expecting a soft bounce. It hit a high at 1583 and that is surprising for me. I was expecting top in the range of 1570 to 1575 levels. Still, charting pattern suggest that it came to make double top with second top lower than the previous one. Broader chart suggests that now it will again open a move towards 1543 levels. This selling should start from today onwards. I strongly believe that one close below 50 DMA will push S&P 500 towards 1500 levels.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar