11 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A good bounce came to close above 5548 marks. It is giving hint for a move towards 5600-5610. Will it cross to move 5610 to get a next up move?

 You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 April 2013: -

On 10 April 2013, FII bought INR 40.22 crs and DII bought INR 197.29 crs.

We got a bounce in last 100 minutes of trading yesterday. Indian market tries to come in parallel with global recovery but we are still under performing in a good way. European market gained over 2-3 % yesterday while US market moved towards another life time high. For Indian market I will not say that one day of rise is enough to bet for bottom. Equally, it is better to avoid shorting lower levels.

I can say that our market will not be as strong as global market. We will get our first big earning figure tomorrow as Infosys will present its figures. Market will wait for newer set of IIP and WPI numbers.

Technical charts are saying that as long it sustain above 5548, we can hope for 5600-5610. There is great point to expect more rise above 5610. I can expect weakness only if it breaks 5548 levels. There is a strong logic that I like to watch this time. We have recovered well yesterday and now it is all set to open with gap up. If this gap up does not fill then it will be bull’s gap up. On that basis we will have few critical levels, which I will discuss in next paragraph.

We have seen massive short covering from low which was justified by FIIs numbers too. Now IndiaVIX is down only by 2% and it is now at 16.49. So, now one has to be cautious at higher levels. Indian market has history of shocking market men at higher levels. Charts are saying that we may see a move above 200 DMA if it manages to sustain above 5610.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I was expecting 5450 but it bounced from 5480. It was wild run in last 100 minutes yesterday. SGX Nifty is showing that we may see higher opening. After a gap up, we will have two important levels to watch. One is at 5577 and next is at 5553. These two should be trading supports. On higher side, we can expect levels 5626 to 5630 levels. This is going to be a tough trading session to handle volatility. It is better to deal only in second half. I am definitely not expecting a cross above 5650. As long as we are below 5650, we will again hit lower.

S&P 500 – Will USA market ever correct? I will say ‘Ben Guarantee’ is above all market dynamics and technical indicators. US market is turning to a gravity free space. We can only hope for something to come but no one knows what could be that ‘next big’ thing. So far, everything looks good for rise for USA. Above all time high, theoretically there cannot be any resistance. I have no great levels to talk about. US market is at all-time high, Japan is at 5 year’s high.     

Regards,

Praveen Kumar