31 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Last trading day of the year. It will face resistance at 6326 to 6350 levels. Be stock specific and be cautious on all banking stocks. Nifty support – 6260.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 December 2013: -

On 27 December 2013, FII Bought INR 116.06 crs and DII Sold INR 207.15 crs

There is no great volume in market yet. It seems that market is still on expected holiday mood. There were some good news aftermarket hours. FIPB cleared Vodafone and Tesco proposal. These are the damage control steps against long policy paralysis. FM claims that India will meet its CAD target and it will be lower than expected.

We may see some better opening due to above reasons. I am not sure that those can be enough reasons to get a direction in market. India market is just waiting for fresh cues by FII to get a direction. Even US market is also trading with dull and holiday mood.

VIX goes above 15 now. I am already sensing that it can either move towards 20 or may try to settle near 12. We will see some decisive move by next week only. Small cap or mid cap indices are still trading not alarming. These might be close to give a caution signal. Banking index is looking alarming from higher levels. Are we close to a melt down? Keep your eye on currency market too.

For today, technical resistance will be at 6324 and 6350. Below 6280-6260 we can see some drag towards 6200. I still believe that if fall comes it can be little bigger in magnitude. It may again slip from higher levels for today also. Let us see how year closes for Indian market. Nifty closed at 5905 on 31 December 2012.

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Strategy for Nifty January future – It should open higher back by off market news flow. I still believe that it may not sustain at higher levels. It will have resistance at 6400 levels. In the lower side it will see threshold support at 6310 levels. If it breaks 6310 then only we can get some decisive moves on trades. It may not be impressive for trading if it holds positive.

S&P 500 (USA) – It remains unchanged and so my study remains same. It gives me a sense that profit taking may start near the resistance of 1854. What can be magnitude of correction?  It depends on market condition. I said this in past also that world’s strongest bulls are at USA. Technical charts are suggesting that now traders should short any rise with stop loss at 1854 for 2-3% pullback at least. If it crosses 1854 then it will again prepare for another higher level like 1880!!!

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

30 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 6320 is still meaningful resistance. Crossover can give us 6350 to 6360. It is going to be dull-limited and boring week. Be stock specific.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 December 2013: -

On 27 December 2013, FII Bought INR 295.76 crs and DII Sold INR 159.85 crs

Volume dried up and participation is still low expect expiry day. We may not see anything great on volume front for this week too. This is not going to be good either for price movement. Long term charts are giving us a sense that we are on threshold point for some big fresh rise but we came at this point for many times in recent months.   

Due to above reason, I am considering that 6320 is a stiff resistance. It is not that only 6320 is the meaningful resistance. Even if we crosses then also will see another stiff resistance at 6360 levels. Current, consolidating pattern has formed many technical resistances. We will see higher levels later but first we should get a technical pullback.

VIX is coming towards 14 but Nifty remains at the same value. This is something which is surprising me most. We are heading towards year end trades. If nifty spot breaks and stay below 6260 then we can see some decisive dip towards 6200.

I suggest participating trades to limited extent as volume will be low for this week. It is better to catch the moves of stocks which will come with volume. We may not see great trading range too.

For today, technical resistance will be at 6324 and 6350. Below 6280-6260 we can see some drag towards 6200. I still believe that if fall comes it can be little bigger in magnitude.

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Strategy for Nifty January future – It may open flat. It is already trading in the zone of 6370 – 6380 levels. We may not see anything big from current levels. As it is not giving anything negative so it can be up but I still feel that anything which comes in positive will be very limited now. Logical resistance can be 6417-6420 levels.  

S&P 500 (USA) – It has closed negative on Friday night. It gives me a sense that profit taking may start near the resistance of 1854. What can be magnitude of correction?  It depends on market condition. I said this in past also that world’s strongest bulls are at USA. Technical charts are suggesting that now traders should short any rise with stop loss at 1854 for 2-3% pullback at least. If it crosses 1854 then it will again prepare for another higher level like 1880!!!

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

27 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If Nifty spot stand below 6260 then it will favour bears only for a move towards 6200. Technical resistance will be at 6300 and 6320 levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 December 2013: -

On 26 December 2013, FII Bought INR 743.70 crs and DII Sold INR 203.44 crs

Volume is not very bad but comparing to expiry day it was dull. In fact it was most dull expiry of past 12 months. Nifty moved in a range and closed with narrow gain. I can still say that one must focus on 6260 as threshold point.

Currently, Indian market is in pause state when almost every global index advanced in this month. I always say that underperformance is killer for Indian market. We must be cautious on mid cap and small cap stocks.

VIX is coming towards 14 but Nifty remains at the same value. This is something which is surprising me most. We are heading towards year end trades. If nifty spot breaks and stay below 6260 then we can see some decisive dip towards 6200.

Any stock, which has gained like 100% in past few months, may come under pressure. Some front like stocks like Auro Pharma and Tata Steel comes under such category. One must avoid fresh investment on such stocks for now. Stocks, like Reliance may play decisive role now if fall comes on index.

For today, technical resistance will be at 6300 and 6320. Below 6260 we can see some drag towards 6200. I still believe that if fall comes it can be little bigger in magnitude.

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Strategy for Nifty January future – It may open flat to negative. SGX is hinting for the opening near 6333 which is well 17 points down. If this happens then we can see a move towards 6280 in quicker than expected time. On higher side resistance will be at 6370 level. Even if Nifty January future trades with choppiness then also it will favour bears today. It is looking like for the bad beginning of new series.

S&P 500 (USA) – It is a great rise in US market. S&P 500 came at 1842. Just comparing with Indian market, which was never confident like this for any rise in the year 2013. Now also S&P has target at 1854. As we are moving towards target and resistance of 1854 so caution is required. One should not try to pin point the top and so long trades should be avoided from towards if it trade negative. Still, 1854 is not beyond reach.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

26 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We can expect Derivative expiry day volatility. If Nifty spot stand below 6260 then it will favour bears only for a move towards 6200.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 December 2013: -

On 24 December 2013, FII Bought INR 40.67 crs and DII Sold INR 43.09 crs

As expected, it was dull participation by FII and market almost remains directionless. Now we are on derivative expiry day. Last year in the same period Nifty was at 5930 but cracked by 1% on expiry day. so, it depends on market volume for its direction.

Suppose if it stand below my critical 6260 levels then I cannot deny the possibility of 6230 to 6200 in down side. 2013 is memorable year for many global markets but for Indian market it remains pinching. We are almost on year end trade.

Traditionally, Indian market has again under performed global indices for December month. Except technology and reality stocks, nothing has impressed. Buying goes in patches. Still, market may try to be optimistic in near future for long term. I am keeping my analysis same as of Tuesday.

For this kind of day, we must get a threshold point as ‘make or break’ levels. For today it is 6260. One can trade short below 6260 on Nifty spot level. Hold long as long as it holds 6260.  Nifty 6320 will act as stiff resistance. Crossover of 6320 can be indication for massive short covering rally.  

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Strategy for Nifty December future – It may open flat. It has immediate trading support at 6275 levels only. It can be fine as long as it holds 6275. Once it breaks 6275 then you can expect a fall in market. Volume is going to be low so one should be very time specific for trades. I am hoping for decisive trading move in last hours only.  Nifty December month future should have stiff trading resistance at 6315 and 6335 levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – I said, “Once it crosses 1814, we have reasons to expect 1854. Right now it is on mini resistance area of 1830. It can take some pause but finally it can try to hit 1854.”

Now, it has surpassed 1830 also and confirming for a move towards 1854. US market can violate any worse global trend to move forward. So far, everything looks good to close 2013 on highest point of the life time.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

24 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Once it is stopping then 6320 then keep your eye on 6260 as threshold point. Quick swings are very much possible as volume will be low by FII as they are on Holiday mood now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 24 December 2013: -

On 23 December 2013, FII Bought INR 135.42 crs and DII Sold INR 38.35 crs

I have already said that as long as it holds 6230 we should expect a move towards 6320. It missed it just by 2 points and came off very sharply to hit 6271. We have support at 6260 on daily chart. I am taking Thursday’s high as decisive before derivative expiry. Note that we have holiday tomorrow and very next day we have derivative expiry. So we can expect volatility today.

Suppose if it stand below my critical 6260 levels then I cannot deny the possibility of 6230 to 6200 in down side. 2013 is memorable year for many global markets but for Indian market it remains pinching. We are almost on year end trade.

Real under performance can be a threat. Although FII goes on Holiday mood but out market may see reaction if weakness come. Above FII figures are showing that we may be heading towards dull day in term of money flow. This factor can make market either extremely dull or extremely volatile.  

For this kind of day, we must get a threshold point as ‘make or break’ levels. For today it is 6260. Short below 6260. Hold long as long as it holds 6260.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – It may open flat. It has immediate trading support at 6275 levels only. It can be fine as long as it holds 6275. Once it breaks 6275 then you can expect a fall in market. volume is going to be low so one should be very time specific for trades. I am hoping for decisive trading move in last hours only.  Optimism may drive market in first half.

S&P 500 (USA) – Once it crosses 814, we have reasons to expect 1854. Right now it is on mini resistance area of 1830. It can take some pause but finally it can try to hit 1854. I have a time line which is running short. I have already said earlier that cross above 1814 will generate target as 1854 for December month. It is looking like it can take one day big up. Trades should still be on long side as long as 1814 holds. Bulls and bears, both will remember 2013 forever!!!

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

23 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Technical charts are justifying more extension of rise with possibility of short covering. I still advise caution at higher levels due the history of trapping bulls above 6300 !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 December 2013: -

On 20 December 2013, FII Bought INR 990.19 crs and DII Sold INR 247.55 crs

It was a great trade for weekend. Nifty shoot up above 6230-6236 levels and goes higher by 50 points more. Now, it is looking to hit 6320 levels which is at the distance of 50 points from here. As long as Nifty is above 6230 support levels, we can expect strength and attempt for a move towards new all-time high. Why India should left when world is enjoying “Santa Rally”.

It is equally true that 6300 levels had always formed a trap for bulls in past.  Good thing for this time is that it is bouncing again without breaking 50 dma. We saw rise in Reliance. Indian market has a history of topping out with rise in Reliance.

I will be cautious at higher levels but I will prefer to trade long. We can expect good activity in high beta mid cap banks now. Auto, technology and pharma stocks are looking good for the day.

In short, trade long as long as 6230 holds. One thing is clear that Indian market is not moving like other global indices. We are on long term ‘inverse H&S pattern’ but not breaking higher on decisive basis which most global indices has done six months back.

For the day, I am expecting 6320 as first target and if it sustain at 6320 then you can expect good rise towards 6360 also. Pure, charting basis, crossover of 6230 may result 6500 also.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – It is likely to open with some strength. Nifty future is almost running with small premium value near to derivative expiry and it has some hope of short covering rally too on expiry week. Technically, 6360 may be on test. Higher levels will not going to be stable. Immediate trading support will be at 6280. Expect 6360 as long as it holds 6280 levels. Do not short this market unless some real big sign of troubles comes. Nothing looking like that. We passed the levels of sign of worry.

S&P 500 (USA) – It goes above 1814 and settled well above those. So, this can be surely named as “Santa Rally”. Logically, it is an opening for a move towards 1854 levels. Still 3% more rise has left for this month. 2013 is a historic year for bulls. It opened on strong note and remains strong throughout the year. It has started from 1470 and running at 1820 now. I am considering 1814 as new crossover and breakout point for bulls.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

20 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Technical support at 6145-6140. If it breaks then we can expect panic sell off before derivative expiry. Stiff resistance @ 6200-6230 levels now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 December 2013: -

On 19 December 2013, FII Bought INR 2264.11 crs and DII Sold INR 41.59 crs

I am still saying FOMC minutes are negative for emerging market and specially India. Market slipped in line with my expectation from higher levels and washed out in just few minutes. It is noticeable that Indian market has underperformed global indices yesterday and in past few days.

Do not get encouraged by looking heavy buy figure by FII in cash market. I always say that FIIs are known to buy tops heavily and sell bottoms heavily. I like to draw your attention towards one thing, where is advance tax numbers? Think!!!

One should observe one thing on chart. It is looking like Nifty is knocking 50 DMA on constant basis. 50 DMA is like a door. If Nifty knocked so many times then it will open and invite it to enter below 50 DMA. This is definitely not a good pattern for bulls.

Technical charts are suggesting that 6160-6145 is last hope area. If it starts trading below 6145 then one can expect steep fall towards 6080 levels. In worst case scenario it can hit 6000 levels as well. On higher side 6200 to 6230 will act as stiff resistance zone.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – It is likely to see weak opening. It has technical support at 6140 levels. One needs to note that we are moving towards derivative expiry. Do not think that dip can be bought easily this time.  If it sustain below 6140 then we can see some panic selling also. Technically, we are on make or break levels before expiry.

S&P 500 (USA) – It closed dead flat and I will retain my views, analysis remains same. It is just 4 points away from another all-time high. I highlighted this in past also that if it breaks 1814 on higher side in December month then expect a wild move towards 1854 levels which is indicated by gann resistance line for December month. It is the time to forget yesterday and think about today. One must watch for 1814 to add fresh long. I cannot deny the possibility of “Blow up top formation”.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

19 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I see FOMC minutes as ‘negative’ for emerging market like India. Caution advised if topping out pattern comes before 6300 of Nifty.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 December 2013: -

On 18 December 2013, FII Bought INR 1198.60 crs and DII Sold INR 413.01 crs

Firstly, it is the time to congratulation to Dr. Raghuram Rajan that he at least dares to think in positive way. I do not know if it is a courage or adventure. Only time can answer. Honestly, I was not expecting this kind of decisive.

He left the words of caution too by saying that he may act before policy. So now he made the things still jittery. I will fear on every day whenever data comes. Our country is heading towards election now and so RBI may not get good support from government. So we are still far away from improvement in growth but some hopes may come if this works.

Now, let us see what has happened in US last night. The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it would start to taper its aggressive bond-buying program to $75 billion a month beginning in January, propelling the market to a record close. The FOMC also announced it would lower its monthly long-term Treasury bond purchases to $40 billion and mortgage-backed securities to $35 billion a month, both reductions of $5 billion.

Well, it may be good news for USA but it may not be as good for countries like India. I am expecting a stronger opening but not as strong as USA or Japan or any developed market. I am adding a warning sign. Suppose if closing comes near to day’s lower levels then it will develop an odd pattern. Logical resistance is at 6280-6300-6320-6350.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – I am expecting only 40-50 points higher opening at the max. It may open weaker than what SGX will give us at 9 am today. 6300 may act as still resistance although if momentum sustain above 6300 then we can expect levels like 6350 also. Recovery depends on follow up buying. Technical support is at 6260 and 6220 levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – FOMC gave a cheer mood to the global market. S&P was fluctuating near 1780 before decision and then took a sharp bounce. Finally, it closed at highest point of the day at 1810. It is just 4 points away from another all-time high. I highlighted this in past also that if it breaks 1814 on higher side in December month then expect a wild move towards 1854 levels which is indicated by gann resistance line for December month. It is the time to forget yesterday and think about today. One must watch for 1814 to add fresh long. I cannot deny the possibility of “Blow up top formation”.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

18 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Logically, we should expect 6080 or lower levels but keep your eye on RBI policy only. Market may wait to see FOMC outcome tonight.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 December 2013: -

On 17 December 2013, FII Bought INR 249.93 crs and DII Sold INR 96.83 crs

Money flow goes dull on critical levels. Nifty has broken 50 DMA and closed below the support of 6150-6145 levels. Logically, we should have a bounce as it was falling continuously. Things have not gone well for bulls. In recovery it has failed to cross even 6200 levels. Now, we came on RBI policy today.

It was definitely not a strong close yesterday. I am scared that Nifty spot may try to test the levels of 6080 now. Big question is that will we get support even at 6080. Suppose if it breaks 6080 and sustain then it will open door for 6000.

Some developments on charts are suggesting and hinting for 6000 levels although it can be too brutal to write. This market is falling continuously without any support and refusing to move parallel to global market. I always fear if Indian market starts underperforming. I took a soft long day before yesterday but exited yesterday in very first minutes as it opened weaker than SGX cues.

All eyes will be on RBI policy today. I expect 25 bps hike in repo rate after troubling WPI and CPI data past week. When Dr. Raghuram Rajan was PM’s advisor, it was advocating for ‘rate cut’. Now when he became RBI governor, he is doing exactly opposite.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – SGX NIFTY is hinting for a soft to positive start. I must say that it has full chance of opening lower than what SGX Nifty is hinting. I am expecting Nifty December future to hit 6100 or nearer levels. On higher side, it cannot be safe as long as it is below 6200 levels. It is better to wait for RBI outcome.

S&P 500 (USA) – FOMC outcome will have great potential to impact market now.  It has closed on dot near 1780. I consider this as ‘make or break’ levels. Generally, this kind of day is not easy to trade. If it goes above 1780 then expect a rise to break the challenge of 1794. If it stays below 1780 then I have reasons to expect 1750-1740. One must wait to conclude market behavior at 1780.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

17 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I can still say that 6150 is a meaningful support, does not matter how bad WPI came. Market is fearful about repo rate hike.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 December 2013: -

On 16 December 2013, FII Bought INR 159.55 crs and DII Sold INR 129.50 crs

WPI came at 7.52% and market turn nervous again. Well, it was nervous only, it was not a panic like situation. Eventually, Nifty hits its 50 DMA which is at 6145 now. This support is not expected to be violated. Remember, Nifty is falling continuously after hitting new all-time high. Although I can say that it never looks good to hit 50 DMA immediately after hitting life-time high.  

I was strongly bearish from 6350 onwards and took my profit on Friday. Then we decided to go long yesterday. We saw a pre-FOMC rally in US market as well as Euro zone. I believe that it will help us to get a higher opening.

I turn bullish softly but I still cannot believe that it can really sustain. Note that Nifty need to surpass above 6230 and sustain to give any good sign for the continuation of rising trend which is really a tough job. Only consoling factor is that mid cap and small cap indices are still giving some hope. I generally do not make choice before going to FOMC but if I have to make then I would be bullish only.

For today’s session look for support at 6150-6145 and prefer to watch out for a move towards 6230 first. Once it settles above 6230 then one can really hope something good.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – NIFTY future will open with some real gap up. SGX Nifty is hinting for opening near 6230. If this happens then tougher task would be to cross above 6260. I believe that we can see this level. Once we go above 6260 then we can restore good confidence in market. Let us see if we really above to sustain above critical threshold in this market.

S&P 500 (USA) – I said to stay short as long as it is below 1780. Now it is above 1780 and showing the typical pre-FOMC strength. It is looking like market slipped to factor out tapering. Technical charts are suggesting for a move towards 1800 as long as it is staying above 1780 levels. So for now, till FOMC meeting, market looks to gain strength with just one strong closing.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

16 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Once again keep your eye on 6150 and 6080 as meaningful support. Better confirmation to buy will come above 6230 levels. It is oversold in short term.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 December 2013: -

On 13 December 2013, FII Sold INR 432.02 crs and DII Sold INR 42.07 crs

So, FII sold in cash market on Friday. Just the way I said this many times that FII are known to buy tops heavily and sold bottom heavily. They bought Rs 2500 crs on top, if you remember. Money flow is something which cannot give you true picture for trading. That’s why you should believe technical analysis to trade.

I am expecting soft opening and trades before critical events are in line. We have Fed meeting and RBI policy this week. I expect 6150 and 6080 as most critical support on year end. Market is almost looking over sold in short term. We may be on the verge of a trading bounce but signal has yet to see confirmation.

When I say about confirmation then I am indicating for the formation of some positive divergence on main momentum and technical indicators. I still warn that before recovery it may try to give a panic to the traders. I booked all my shorts on Friday’s dip. Now, I am waiting for fresh signal to build my trades.

Just two figures to watch as supports. One is at 6150 which is closer. Once it breaks 6150 then it may open move towards 6080. Note that a move towards 6080 does not mean the test of 6080. Better confirmation for recovery will be only above 6230 which are too far.

Be caution on banking and reality stocks as those may remain nervous.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – NIFTY future will open soft today. Immediate trading support is at 6160 levels. If it breaks 6160 then there is nothing to test for recovery. If it sustain above 6160 then we have some meaning to think for bounce. I will update more during trading hours. Break of 6160 may give us some panic sell off but those may be opportunity to buy. I want to dip and more dip to buy from low.

S&P 500 (USA) – We are on another critical week for US market as fed will take decision about tapering. S&P is sustaining below 1780 which is definitely an odd sign for bulls. I suggested for short from failure of 1813 and still retaining my views. As long as it is staying below 1780 we have meaning to hold short. It is expected to enter in the range of 1750 to 1740. It is not the market for light traders. Maintain distance if you cannot afford the risk of volatility.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 December 2013: -

On 12 December 2013, FII Bought INR 187.81 crs and DII Sold INR 354.85 crs

Multiple times I said that FIIs are known to buy tops heavily. Few days back we saw buying of 2500 crs in a day in cash market. Now, they are reserving themself in fall. It was strongly quoted from past few days that break of 6280 will be decisive. We saw that break and a low at 6230 yesterday.  

I am expecting more dip today also. I am expecting that Nifty should hit either of one support out of 6150 and 6080. So, still a long way to fall more. Market should take CPI and IIP both as shocker only. IIP came at negative 1.80% and CPI came at 11.24%. You cannot expect anything worse than this kind of figures.

I was expecting further fall in US market and I got that. Technical charts are suggesting me to expect levels of 6150 as only meaningful support. Although, I believe that this kind of fall never end easily. If it has to fall then it will fall by breaking all supports. I would not be surprised if we see 6000 levels near expiry day.

Banking and capital goods are already on fall. Sooner metal and FMGC stocks will join hand.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – NIFTY future will open with some moderate gap down. It is like ly to see opening near 6210 levels. Even from those levels it may see more fall or rapid fall. Although, 6180-6170 may generate some support area. My believe is that it will spend time  or even try to give some sign of revival but all such attempt can fail. Only way one can say about recovery is that it is falling from past three days in a row. I still warn that no recovery will sustain in this market.

S&P 500 (USA) – I can still say stay short. It has formed some trading top at 1813 and then it is now converting to short term top. It has broken 1780 brutally and closed well below this level. I have already said that below 1780 it has bright possibilities of hitting 1750-1740 levels. It means we have scope to see the fall of 2-3% more from here. I will again say, stay short!!!

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

12 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is still a topping out pattern. Global sell off begins. Keep your eye on Nifty spot at 6280. If it breaks 6280 then expect panic sell off!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 December 2013: -

On 11 December 2013, FII Bought INR 962.71 crs and DII Sold INR 841.92 crs

I have already said that 6280 will be the levels which bulls will not like to give up. It came as bull’s best effort and market rebounded from 6280 to close near day’s high. Take a note that it was the hope that some crucial financial bills will be presented in parliament today.

We heard about this kind of too many times in past also. Can current government able to approve any bills? It is not possible unless they opt executive orders.

Technical set up is simple for the day after sell off in US market last night. Keep your eye on 6280. If it breaks 6280 then we will be out of race to continue with momentum of life time high. Technical resistance will emerge at 6360 and 6400 only. I have not opted long and I will not trade long on this kind of confusion. We will get IIP data for October month but it will come after market hours. It is expected to come in negative.  

I find banking and capital goods as possible culprit now if market goes on breakdown mode. Equally, many global Indies are looking for some weakness in coming days.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty December future – NIFTY future will open in the range of yesterday’s low. This is going to make opening challenging. Any break below 6310 will drag Nifty future lower towards 6250-6200 levels. Do not prefer to pick lows if it breaks 6310 anytime. Although this support makes some sense after yesterday’s pullback in last 30 minutes but those might washed out in gap down. So, technical charts suggest that long trades are possible only after gap fill. So, it cannot be buy unless goes above 6360.

S&P 500 (USA) – Have a look at low; it is on dot at 1780. It is showing that we are going to see a move towards 1740 levels sooner. This is not unexpected. Market was already showing in past few days that a nervous selling will hit before fed meeting. It is fear of rollback of stimulus. Now, we will see some stiff resistance at 1786 and 1794 levels. Stay short!!!

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

11 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is topping out pattern. I am expecting continuation of profit taking. Bull’s last hope is 6300-6280. Banks and capital goods may hurt now!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 December 2013: -

On 10 December 2013, FII Bought INR 395.68 crs and DII Sold INR 628.16 crs

We got low at 6307 yesterday in the process of correction. I need to specify that 6300-6280 is going to be the zone where bulls may make their full effort to save the momentum. Still, there are many odd sign that momentum can end anytime.

FII has bought this market heavily on Monday but left on doldrums yesterday. I always say that FIIs are known to buy top heavily. So, we should not try to conclude too many things on just their data.  

From past two trading sessions small cap indices are not performing parallel to Nifty. If Nifty gains then small cap index gains lesser. If nifty falls small cap indices fall more. This kind of trading cue suggests that traders might be close to fulfill their appetite.

As I said, 6300-6280 is the zone where bulls must make their full effort. Once it breaks 6280 then bears will choose their ways. Remember, Indian market has a history of trapping bulls at 6300 + levels. More over RSI has negative divergence on daily chart now.

I find banking and capital goods as possible culprit now if market goes on breakdown mode. Equally, many global indies are looking for some weakness in coming days.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty December future – NIFTY future is signaling for soft start for the day. I am saying this again, start can be weaker than perhaps what SGX Nifty will say at 9:00 am. Yesterday was also an example. Technical charts are suggesting that it is short as long as staying below 6400. One break below 6335-6330 will cause a dip towards 6250.

S&P 500 (USA) – No matter what is happening, if S&P 500 is staying below 1813 then it is just for short towards a move for 1780. Once it breaks 1780 then we can expect 1750-1740 too. We are almost coming mid of the month now. All eyes may shift towards fed upcoming meeting.  Now, what’s a bull suggests? Think to add long only above 1814 for a move towards 1830-1840-1854.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

10 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Today is 13th day from the low of 5972. Expect profit taking to hit at higher level. Technical resistance will be only at new all-time high at 6415.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 10 December 2013: -

On 09 December 2013, FII Bought INR 2473.17 crs and DII Sold INR 1205.81 crs

So finally, Indian market also hit a new life time high in the year 2013. I did not see any great energy in the market. In fact, closing almost goes near low point of the day. It is happening very frequently. Market opening higher and closing goes to day’s low, although day to day basis it is going higher. This kind of pattern is not good for any rising or bull market.

FII has bought this market heavily yesterday. Their investment goes over 1 lakh crs in the year 2013.

Technical resistance will be only at 6415 which is life time high so far. We are close to this level. Now, one negative close will signal the sign of profit taking. I strongly believe that profit taking can hit by today itself. Today is 13^th day after hitting 5972 levels. If Nifty spot goes below 6340 then we will get first sign of possible profit taking.

Front line stocks are looking fairly valued at this price and mid cap stocks are not on better interest so far. Let us see how market is going to respond before fed meeting next week.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty December future – NIFTY future is signaling for higher start as indicated by SGX NIFTY. Remember, yesterday’s opening trades fail to open parallel to SGX. In fact it was way lower. This might be due to DII selling or over optimism by global market. We may get same thing today. It may not be as strong as shown by SGX which is 30-35 points higher. Technical resistance is at 6420-6425 levels. Break below 6370 confirm a possible dip.

S&P 500 (USA) – I still believe that 1813 is going to be a challenging resistance. If it manages to surpass 1813 then one need to accept for the newer target of 1854 for the month of December. The rally which has started in the month of January has still some leg but it must be near to stop now. Let us see what is coming. I will prefer to trade long only above 1813 and that’s also if trades sustain for some time above 1813. Fed minutes will be on trader’s radar which will come on 17-18 December 2013.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar